MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, September 18.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
6:40 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes has pitched better than his 3.78 ERA would indicate, as he has a 3.23 fielding independent with 10.3 strikeouts and 0.9 home runs per nine innings allowed. Royals starting pitcher Randy Dobnak owns a 2.73 ERA, but his 3.95 fielding independent with 6.1 strikeouts and three walks per nine innings points toward regression. He faces a Pirates lineup that ranks fifth in the league in scoring with 4.8 runs per game, while the Royals are last in road scoring with 3.6 runs per game.
Pick: Pirates Run Line -1.5 +125 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Pirates -1.5 -109 and Total 8.1
7:10 PM Eastern
Athletics vs. Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians will give Daniel Espino the start, but will likely throw Joey Cantillo as a bulk pitcher. Cantillo has a 3.89 ERA with 4.7 walks and 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings and benefits from facing an Athletics team that is 28th in road scoring with 4.1 runs per game. Athletics starting pitcher Mason Barnett has struggled to a 7.07 ERA with 2.7 home runs and 5.3 walks per nine innings, while the Athletics are last in bullpen ERA at 5.37.
Pick: Guardians Run Line -1.5 +115
Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -1.5 -116
8:05 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangers
Blue Jays starting pitcher Dylan Cease has a 2.38 ERA with 0.6 home runs allowed and 12.8 strikeouts per nine innings, with his ERA dipping to 1.89 away from home. He faces a Rangers offense that is 25th in scoring with 4.2 runs per game, while the Blue Jays are 29th in scoring with just over four runs per game but eighth in bullpen ERA since July 1 at 3.66. The Rangers send Kumar Rocker to the mound, who owns a 4.54 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 3.7 walks per nine innings allowed.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline -130 and Under 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays -141 and Total 7.1
9:38 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels
Angels starting pitcher Grayson Rodriguez owns a 6.10 ERA with 1.4 home runs and 3.9 walks per nine innings, but has performed better recently with a 4.13 ERA and 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings in his last nine starts. The Angels are just 1-8 in those starts thanks to the team being last in the league in scoring overall with less than four runs per game, which dips to less than 3.6 runs per game at home. Twins starting pitcher Connor Prielipp has a 5.24 ERA, but his 3.88 fielding independent with 1.1 home runs and 3.2 walks per nine innings points toward positivity.
Pick: Twins Moneyline -124 and Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Twins -133 and Total 8.3
10:15 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
In a small sample size of three appearances, Cesar Perdomo has a 3.68 ERA and 4.19 fielding independent with only 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings after having a 4.43 ERA at the minor league level. Dodgers starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow owns a 3.50 ERA with at least three runs allowed in three of his past four starts and is supported by a bullpen that is 19th in ERA since July 1 at 4.36. The Dodgers have also had to go to their bullpen for 13 innings of relief over the past two days.
Pick: Giants vs. Dodgers Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.2
