Syracuse vs. Pitt
We’re still a few weeks away from Tuesday and Wednesday games featuring the Sun Belt and Conference USA, plus we’ll have MACtion further down the line, but we aren’t empty-handed in terms of weeknight games in Week 3. In fact, we get a Power Four matchup with Syracuse vs. Pitt, as the two former Big East rivals come together in the ACC opener for the Panthers.
The ACC actually gets two weeknight games, at least if we consider Friday a weeknight, as Miami draws the spotlight again, this time against Wake Forest. Houston vs. Texas Tech is the bigger of the two for Friday night, but we have to get through Thursday before we worry about Friday and that means digging into the game in the Steel City.
Odds from Circa Sports as of September 14, 7:00 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 3 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Syracuse vs. Pitt (-11, 51) Prediction
Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Pick: Syracuse +11
Syracuse is already 0-1 in ACC play, having lost to Cal at home this past weekend. That was a pretty surprising defeat, as the Orange outgained the Golden Bears by nearly 200 yards and were a 4.5-point favorite. But, losses will happen when you squander a big advantage in yardage by going -3 in turnover margin, as Steve Angeli’s three interceptions were too much to overcome.
While the final score is what everybody will notice, it should also be noted that the Orange really bottled up Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, holding him to 21-of-34 passing for just 182 yards. The Bears also did nothing of consequence on the ground with just 67 yards on 25 carries with a long of 13. The Orange defense under first-year DC Vince Kehres was very strong, but only recorded one sack and didn’t have any takeaways. Those would have been helpful given Angeli’s three picks and just 4.7 yards per play for the Syracuse offense.
After a complete dismantling of Miami – of Ohio, obviously – to open the season, Pitt looked significantly different with a step up in class against UCF. The Panthers won 12-7 just a week after dropping 59 points on the RedHawks, who are usually one of the better defensive teams in the Group of Six. Against UCF, Pitt only scored on two of their possessions, with an 83-yard field goal drive and then a 44-yard touchdown drive set up by some strong special teams play. The Panthers only had 15 first downs.
But, they also held UCF to just nine first downs, so it was not a good offensive display for either team, with a combined 7-of-31 effort on third down. The Panthers held UCF to fewer than one yard per carry and a Success Rate overall of just 33% per Game On Paper. The Knights had under four yards per play and were fortunate to recover all three of their fumbles, otherwise Pitt likely would have covered the spread.
Last week’s outcomes would suggest a defensive struggle here, but the total of 51 does seem to stand out a bit. Collectively, the teams scored 125 points in their first games, but against New Hampshire and Miami (OH). How much can we really take from those two data points? At least last week’s games were against comparable competition. Just throwing that out there, since the Under looks like the easy play here, but it’s set in the low 50s for a reason, even with a chance of rain during the game.
Syracuse vs. Pitt Prediction
Syracuse missed a couple of field goals and settled for two red-zone FG, including one inside the 10-yard-line last week. Cal only had 14 offensive points. The loss for the Orange was pretty self-inflicted, but I do think that it obscures the good things that they did. Meanwhile, Pitt played a real defense and mustered just 2.4 yards per carry and only had 18 completions. I’m not sure that’s a team ready to cover double digits.
Pick: Syracuse +11
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