Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, September 16, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 168-173 (-77.94 units, ROI: -22.9%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+162 vs PHI)
Home favorites/pick ’ems playing in the last game of an interleague series, lost their last game and facing an opponent who exhausted their bullpen for 5+ innings last game have gone 55-26 SU for +14.78 units (ROI: 18.2%) in the last six seasons
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-135 vs BAL)
When two teams with >=0.55% win pct meet in a night game to close out a series, Under the total is 74-51-6 (59.2%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-CHC (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: Robbie Ray’s teams are 32-13 (+20.87 units) when he starts against NL opponents since the beginning of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-172 at COL)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are just under the profitability line at 207-168 for -1.01 units, but at -0.3 ROI, still way better than the average loss.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+135 at STL)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar teams in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go-against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 63-56 for -11.48 units for an ROI of -9.6%.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-198 at WSH)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go-against angle that does well. For the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 91-132 for -43.79 units and an ROI of -19.6%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (+134 at CHC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+135 at CLE), HOUSTON (-167 vs KC), BALTIMORE (+112 at NYM)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, with a couple of weeks left, they are now 152-226 start for -25.67 units (-6.8% ROI) after losing about 35.5 units over the three months.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (-163 vs SF), WASHINGTON (+162 vs PHI)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 108-58 for -20.60 units, ROI -12.4%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-219 at CIN), PHILADELPHIA (-198 at WSH)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season has been slower than usual, 309-373 for -22.73 units, ROI -3.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+135 at STL), ATLANTA (+134 at CHC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+135 at CLE), LA ANGELS (+120 vs SEA), BALTIMORE (+112 at NYM)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 248-180 for +35.33 units, an ROI of +10.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-126 at PIT), BOSTON (-112 at TEX)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 82-102 for -19.10 units and a solid ROI of -10.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (+114 at TOR), WASHINGTON (+162 vs PHI), TEXAS (-108 vs BOS)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 160-185 for +0.61 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (+134 vs NYY), NY METS (-135 vs BAL), KANSAS CITY (+138 at HOU), SEATTLE (-145 at LAA)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 489-510, but for +36.52 units and an ROI of 3.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+134 vs NYY), NY METS (-135 vs BAL), SEATTLE (-136 at LAA)
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 827-1075 but for +30.90 units and an ROI of 1.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+135 at CLE), SAN FRANCISCO (+135 at STL), DETROIT (+114 at TOR), BALTIMORE (+112 at NYM), ATLANTA (+134 at CHC), MIAMI (+113 at AZ)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 426-487 but for +86.85 units and an ROI of 9.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+135 at CLE), BALTIMORE (+112 at NYM)
MLB Series Betting System #12: Home favorites/pick ’ems playing in the last game of an interleague series, lost their last game and facing an opponent who exhausted their bullpen for 5+ innings last game have gone 55-26 SU for +14.78 units (ROI: 18.2%) in the last six seasons
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-135 vs BAL)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,239-2,122 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -280.09 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+135 at STL), DETROIT (+114 at TOR), COLORADO (+142 vs SD)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2308-2898 (44.3%) for -275.94 units and an ROI of -5.3% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS (+153 at TB), BOSTON (-112 at TEX), KANSAS CITY (+138 at HOU), SEATTLE (-136 vs LAA)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 687-575 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +20.10 units, for an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-137 vs DET), CHICAGO CUBS (-162 vs ATL)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 117-172 SU (-28.29 units, ROI: -9.8%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+112 at NYM)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #2:
When two teams with >=0.55% win pct meet in a night game to close out a series, Under the total is 74-51-6 (59.2%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-CHC (o/u at 7.5)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams that have won their last three games and are road favorites versus an opponent with a losing record have gone 119-48 (+34.96 units, ROI: 20.9%) in their last 167 tries.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-162 at MIN)
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams, as they are 94-73 (+25.46 units, ROI: 15.2%) in their last 167 tries to extend streaks.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+114 at TOR)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 280-181 in their last 461 tries (+46.02 units, ROI: 10%).
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+114 at TOR)
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 168-173 (-77.94 units, ROI: -22.9%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+162 vs PHI)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 639-641 for +7.87 units, good for +0.6% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: SAN FRANCISCO +135 (+22), ATLANTA +134 (+11), LA ANGELS +120 (+11), BALTIMORE +112 (+10)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: PHILADELPHIA -198 (+26), TAMPA BAY -186 (+25), CLEVELAND -164 (+14), ARIZONA -136 (+11), BOSTON -112 (+11)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) SAN FRANCISCO (63-89) at (902) ST LOUIS (75-77)
Trend: SF is 22-36 (-15.02 units) in day games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+135 at STL)
(905) MILWAUKEE (94-57) at (906) PITTSBURGH (75-76)
Trend: Over the total is 43-28-2 (+12.20 units) in PIT home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-PIT (o/u at 7.5)
(907) PHILADELPHIA (83-68) at (908) WASHINGTON (71-81)
Trend: Under the total is 44-18-3 (+24.70 units) when starter Zack Wheeler is on the road and faces teams within 41.5-62% win pct since the start of the 2021 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-WSH (o/u at 9)
(909) ATLANTA (89-63) at (910) CHICAGO-NL (84-68)
Trend: Under the total is 18-9-1 (+8.10 units) when ATL is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-CHC (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: CHC is 29-15 (+5.78 units) as a favorite versus NL opponents with starter Shota Imanaga since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-162 vs ATL)
(911) SAN DIEGO (82-69) at (912) COLORADO (56-95)
Trend: Robbie Ray’s teams are 32-13 (+20.87 units) when he starts against NL opponents since the beginning of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-172 at COL)
Trend: Under the total is 25-13 (+10.90 units) when starter Robbie Ray is favored since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-COL (o/u at 11)
(917) NEW YORK-AL (88-63) at (918) MINNESOTA (70-81)
Trend: Over the total is 47-29-9 (+15.10 units) when MIN is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYY-MIN (o/u at 8)
(919) DETROIT (72-79) at (920) TORONTO (75-77)
Trend: Max Scherzer’s teams are 27-11 (+11.61 units) in his last 38 day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-137 vs DET)
(921) ATHLETICS (61-90) at (922) TAMPA BAY (91-59)
Trend: TB is 51-25 (+14.36 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-186 vs ATH)
(927) SEATTLE (70-82) at (928) LOS ANGELES-AL (58-93)
Trend: LAA is 39-72 (-17.54 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+113 vs SEA)
(929) BALTIMORE (74-78) at (930) NEW YORK-NL (69-82)
Trend: Chris Bassitt’s teams are 17-7 (+9.09 units) in his last 24 starts vs NL East opponents
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+112 at NYM)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #6: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland, Mon 9/14-Wed 9/16
Trend: Under the total is 22-12 (64.7%, +8.68 units) in the last 34 games between the White Sox and Guardians in Cleveland
– The ROI on this trend is 25.5%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-CLE (o/u at 7)
Series #29: Boston at Texas, Tue 9/15-Thu 9/17
Trend: Home teams are 25-12 (67.6%, +9.80 units) since 2021 in the Red Sox-Rangers series
– The ROI on this trend is 26.5%
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-108 vs BOS)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. We built these pages using the data DraftKings so graciously provides, detailing the breakdowns of money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-186 vs ATH)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): BALTIMORE (+112 at NYM)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: For as good as Majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 156-81 (65.8%) for -37.06 units and an ROI of -15.6%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-219 at CIN)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+112 at NYM)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-162 vs ATL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): KC-HOU (o/u at 9), SD-COL (o/u at 11)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities,
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Friday, September 18)
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