College Football Week 3 Stability Score Plays:
After last week’s Stability Mismatches produced a record of 4-9 ATS, we are now at 9-16 ATS for the season, and this week’s games will be the last of the season for the system. On the line for this week is the 13-year winning streak of the system. For as much as I’d love to offer my apologies to those who may have been playing this methodology for the first time, I must explain how unprecedented these first two weeks have been. Plus, I personally have not given up just yet, as it is foundationally logical and over the last three years, the final Week 3 games have easily produced the best results, going 31-14 ATS (69%). Hopefully, we’ll see that same type of success this week and more.
I’m here to unveil the Week 3 college football plays that qualify for my long-running system that quantifies the stability level of all FBS teams in college football entering a given season. Of note, at this time last year, we had seen 23 different games qualify in the Week 0-2 action; this year, we are again very close to that and will finish with 39 plays for the season.
However, before I reveal the Week 3 plays, I want to share some research I conducted this morning in looking for reasons as to why we may have hit a wall this season. First, to show you how unprecedented these first 2+ weeks of the season have been, these are the ATS records of the Stability Mismatch System by week since 2021:
Week(s): ATS Record
2021-0/1: 5-5 (50%)
2021-2: 6-2 (75%)
2021-3: 4-5 (44%)
2022-0/1: 8-10 (44%)
2022-2: 8-6 (57%)
2022-3: 11-4 (73%)
2023-0/1: 9-6 (60%)
2023-2: 9-12 (43%)
2023-3: 11-6 (65%)
2024-0/1: 7-4 (64%)
2024-2: 7-6 (54%)
2024-3: 9-4 (69%)
2025-0/1: 5-7 (42%)
2025-2: 4-9 (31%)
A couple of points on this. As you can see, over the last four years, the combined record of these Stability mismatch plays has been 94-70 ATS, good for 57.3%. This year, it has dropped to 9-16 ATS thus far. Second, the last two weeks’ results are the worst the system has seen in the last five years.
Do I have a concrete answer as to why the system has struggled this season? I wish I did. I have some thoughts, ranging from getting some bad breaks in a few games to perhaps bad lines in others, but in my own handicapping, I like to be proven right or wrong by data, not emotions. I was able to find two “weak spots” of the system over the last five years that may be playing a part this year:
1) Games with Stability edge favorites laying 21 points or more have been a lesser performer. Since the start of the 2021 season, these teams are just 22-26 ATS (45.8%). This is an 11.6% drop off against all other games. It seems that in these types of contests, it is often left to the leniency of the favorites as to how badly they want to cover. Plus, in 2025, with powers knowing more about the expanded playoff qualifying procedures, blowing out teams by astronomical margins doesn’t seem as necessary as it used to be. That is a tough spot to be in for a bettor. There have been 10 of these games already in 2025, with four more coming this week, after 38 the prior four years combined. So far, they are 2-8 ATS.
2) Games between pairs of Group of 5 opponents have also proven to be a problem for the Stability Mismatch System. Over the last 4+ years, teams with edges in these games are 22-24 ATS (47.8%). In all other games, the teams with stability edges have gone 81-61 ATS (57%). This is another near double-digit win percentage variance. Perhaps instability isn’t as big a factor when the talent level is lesser overall in a given game? These games are 3-6 ATS to date this season.
These are both factors that you might want to consider as you look at the list of games for Week 3. As captain of this “Stability Ship,” one that has guided me to a lot of profit in the past, I simply can’t abandon any part of it and will again be listing all of these games among my Best Bets for this week, as promised at the outset. I believe in the principle, I have seen the results, and I pride myself on integrity. That said, I do appreciate those of you who have reached out and expressed support despite the last couple of weeks’ results. I wish us all luck this week!
If you have missed the explanation and other full details for the Stability System, or are new to VSiN, I encourage you to go back into the VSiN College Football Betting Guide or in the archived stories from the last two weeks on VSiN.com under my author page and find the articles in which I fully detail the methodology.
Just below, I’ve again put together a list of the Top College Football Stability Mismatches for Week 3 on the schedule. Here is the link to the Stability Chart for all 136 FBS teams.
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 11, 2025
NC State (-7) at Wake Forest
Stability Advantage: NC State by 9
Steve’s thoughts: An intriguing Thursday night ACC tilt for a pair of 2-0 teams here. Wake has beaten two bad teams in Kennesaw State and Western Carolina, while NC State has survived a pair of tough contests versus East Carolina and Virginia. This should be a case where being tested and more stable proves an overwhelming benefit for the Wolfpack. Of note, head coach Dave Doeren’s team won its last trip into Winston-Salem in 2023, 26-6.
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 2025
New Mexico at UCLA (-15.5)
Stability Advantage: UCLA by 9
Steve’s thoughts: UCLA has been a major disappointment in the first two games, losing both to Utah and UNLV. Those are two quality opponents, however. This is the first contest where the Bruins will be heavily favored to win. New Mexico played better than expected versus Michigan, but then only edged Idaho State by 10. Head coach DeShaun Foster needs a coming out party for his transfer QB Nico Iamaleava here, and with just four returning starters back from a unit that allowed 36 PPG for the Lobos last year, this should be the defense to get it against.
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 13, 2025
Central Michigan at Michigan (-27.5)
Stability Advantage: Michigan by 8
Steve’s thoughts: Central Michigan has been feisty and competitive in the opening weeks of the 2025 season despite overall instability for new head coach Matt Drinkall. However, going into Ann Arbor for a contest against a talented Michigan team looking for a bounce-back win might be too much to ask. The Wolverines have outscored the Chippewas 145-33 in the last three head-to-head games, and with the Big Ten season starting next week, I expect a focused effort from head coach Sherrone Moore’s team, which will actually be coached by interim coach Biff Poggi this week following Moore’s suspension.
Pittsburgh (-5.5) at West Virginia
Stability Advantage: Pittsburgh by 12
Steve’s thoughts: Pittsburgh got us a Stability Mismatch win last week with a late TD versus Central Michigan, but in truth, the Panthers looked capable of moving the ball at will and scoring at any point in the contest behind QB Eli Holstein. In this renewal of the Backyard Brawl, I think we are getting a bit of a break on the line because of the rivalry aspect. Typically, underdogs do very well in this head-to-head series, 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight, and it seems oddsmakers are resting their hopes on that. From what we’ve seen thus far in 2025, Pitt is a much more talented and stable team than West Virginia, who is 1-1 for new head coach Rich Rodriguez, and coming off a loss to Ohio U.
Washington State at North Texas (-4.5)
Stability Advantage: North Texas by 9
Steve’s thoughts: Washington State sure didn’t seem like a picture of instability last week in crushing San Diego State, but this game will be a totally different and unique test. A trip to Denton and North Texas awaits, a rarity for a former Power 5 team. The Mean Green look potent on offense, having put up 84 points in the first two games, with QB Drew Mestemaker already throwing for 5 TDs against zero interceptions. I would have to assume that UNT will relish this opportunity in front of the home folks. This will be the Cougars’ first road tilt of 2025 and follows a big homecoming victory last week. This game clearly has the look of a line in which someone “knows something.”
USC (-21) at Purdue
Stability Advantage: USC by 13
Steve’s thoughts: I have a Purdue Over 2.5 season wins hanging in the balance after their 2-0 start, but to be perfectly honest, this is exactly where I thought new head coach Barry Odom and the Boilermakers would be at this point. Playing red-hot USC will be a totally different animal than Ball State and Southern Illinois, however. As it is, this program has lost its last eight games ATS as a home dog, and it might take a while for Odom to re-establish some home-field edge. I used the term red-hot to describe the Trojans right now as they are #2 in the country in scoring at 66 PPG and quietly sneaking onto experts’ radars as a potential CFP contender. For as much as head coach Lincoln Riley’s teams have struggled on the Big Ten road so far, ask yourself this: If USC scores 38+ points as expected by the line/total combo, can Purdue keep up with enough to cover?
Liberty (-6.5) at Bowling Green
Stability Advantage: Liberty by 13
Steve’s thoughts: To be perfectly honest, in watching Liberty these first couple of games, the Flames seem to be among the most unstable stable teams I can recall in recent years. For whatever reason, things just don’t seem to be clicking for head coach Jamey Chadwell since the unexpected undefeated run to the Fiesta Bowl in 2023. His team is only 3-11 ATS since. However, it looks like oddsmakers have made a massive drop off in expectations for Liberty this week, as they are under a TD favorite against a Bowling Green team that has been quite underwhelming in its first two games for new head coach Eddie George. His defense had just one starter back this season, making it a must-thrive offensive week for the Flames.
Western Michigan at Illinois (-28.5)
Stability Advantage: Illinois by 11
Steve’s thoughts: Head coach Bret Bielema has the Illinois program on a rapidly upward trajectory right now, and his team comes off a very impressive win at Duke last Saturday. The Illini were a very popular pick to be upset in that game, yet rolled to a 45-17 decision. Could this week’s matchup versus Western Michigan present a letdown opportunity, especially with a line sitting at -28.5 and a huge trip to Indiana on deck? Yes, maybe, but it could also be another chance for what seems to be a very hungry team looking for respect to prove itself again. This team hasn’t been good long enough to consider taking opponents for granted. Oddsmakers could be pointing up to an unavoidable rout with the hook on this line.
Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern (-3.5)
Stability Advantage: Georgia Southern by 17
Steve’s thoughts: Jacksonville State came up with a massive win last week over Liberty to put itself in the conversation of contenders for the Conference USA crown in 2025. Not much was expected of the Gamecocks in what was figured to be a massive rebuild under new head coach Charles Kelly. Instead, early returns suggest that this is an easier transition than thought. That said, JSU faces a peculiar line set up here against a Georgia Southern team that is 0-2 already and has been outscored by a 101-34 margin. The Eagles have played two offensive juggernauts, however, and this will be their first game at home, where they are 13-5 in the three previous seasons under head coach Clay Helton. Is Sun Belt/CUSA talent disparity the reason for GSU being favored?
Massachusetts at Iowa (-33.5)
Stability Advantage: Iowa by 12
Steve’s thoughts: There is always a natural fear associated with laying big points on Iowa, regardless of who they play, simply because you wonder whether or not they even have the offense to eclipse the point spread mark. Here, the Hawkeyes are laying 33.5 points to a UMass team that might be among the worst in all of FBS. The Minutemen actually lost at home to Bryant last week, 27-26. Iowa is reeling from another late loss to its in-state rival ISU, but for what it’s worth, my power ratings say Iowa should be favored by -38.2 here, well beyond the number. Plus, for those still worried, head coach Kirk Ferentz’s team has scored 34 points or more in six of eight home games since the start of last season.
Navy (-14) at Tulsa
Stability Advantage: Navy by 11
Steve’s thoughts: Navy is on a 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS run versus Tulsa in head-to-head play and has scored 34.5 PPG in those contests. The last time out, in 2022, was a 51-21 decision, and that was before third-year head coach Brian Newberry and his more prolific offense even came into play. This year’s Midshipmen attack is loaded, with 13 starters back overall, and eight on offense, including dynamic QB Blake Horvath. They have already scored 90 points in their 2-0 start to 2025. Points shouldn’t be a problem here, considering Tulsa allowed 21 to a weak New Mexico State offense in a 7-point loss. New head coach Tre Lamb began his tenure a few weeks ago with an underrated 35-7 blowout of Abilene Christian, only for it to unravel last week in the upset loss in Las Cruces. Oh, and by the way, Navy is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 as road chalk.
Air Force (-4) at Utah State
Stability Advantage: Air Force by 8
Steve’s thoughts: Well, it’s pretty clear after the first two games for Utah State that the Aggies won’t be dropping off much this year under new head coach Bronco Mendenhall despite their “instability.” After winning their opener against UTEP, the Aggies proved to be quite competitive at Texas A&M, refusing to go away at any point despite a talent deficiency. This follows a pattern Mendenhall established at New Mexico last year. This week’s game starts conference play, however, and the point spread is set up in such a way that the game winner also likely covers the number. Favorites have historically held the edge between these two teams, going 8-3 since they became conference mates in 2013, including the last outing, a 39-21 Falcons’ win in 2023. Air Force, in the 10th year under head coach Troy Calhoun, has just one game under its belt so far, a 49-13 rout of Bucknell. They brought back 13 starters from last year’s 5-7 team, but we don’t know too much about them yet. We will after this game.
Middle Tennessee State (+9.5) at Nevada
Stability Advantage: Middle Tennessee State by 10
Steve’s thoughts: From the looks of it, Middle Tennessee State got walloped at Wisconsin last week. Under the surface, however, it was a much different game. The Blue Raiders were down just 14-10 at halftime before the Big Ten’s Badgers put up 28 unanswered points in the second half. Still, MTSU is now 0-2 with another 20-point loss to Austin Peay on its resume, so I would understand if you might be skittish about giving them a chance to be competitive against Nevada here. Why is the line only single digits? Shouldn’t a Mountain West team that has taken on Penn State and beaten a competitive FCS team in Sacramento State be able to take care of business against a lesser CUSA team? Those circumstances make the line look either awful or awfully suspicious. Of course, my power ratings say Nevada -8.2, must be the latter.
Texas State at Arizona State (-14.5)
Stability Advantage: Arizona State by 11
Steve’s thoughts: I have an Arizona State Under 8.5 season wins wager hanging out there, so I wasn’t disappointed to see the Sun Devils come up short against Mississippi State last week. That was, of course, on the road in what was a tremendously charged environment in Starkville. Here, head coach Kenny Dillingham’s team is back in the friendly confines of Tempe, where they were 6-0 SU and ATS last season and opened ’25 with a 38-19 win over NAU. Quarterback Sam Leavitt and seven other returning starters will need to put up some points to cover this tricky number against a Texas State team that has again proven prolific for head coach GJ Kinne, despite only bringing back three starters. The Bobcats have put up 95 points in two impressive wins over EMU and UTSA. They have also yielded 63, which could prove to be their detriment in this one.
