Clemson vs. Cal
Did the Clemson Tigers save their season and head coach Dabo Swinney thanks to the weather delay in last week’s win over North Carolina? The Dabo part might be a tad hyperbolic, but the Tigers picking up a second loss in three games and one to an unranked opponent would have wiped out any hopes of righting the ship enough to be in the College Football Playoff discussion. But, now they have to avoid one of those across the country in Berkeley against the Cal Golden Bears.
The last of four FBS vs. FBS matchups on Friday is this ACC tilt with Clemson vs. Cal. I’ll write up the other games after taking a deeper dive into this one, where we’ve seen some intriguing line action in the early going. As noted in the Week 4 Opening Line Report, Cal opened -2 at Circa and was down to a pick ‘em by the evening. By Monday afternoon, Clemson was a clear favorite for their first game west of the Mississippi River since December 21, 2024, the 38-24 loss in Austin to Texas in the first round of the CFP.
Odds from Circa Sports as of September 22, 10:00 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 4 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Clemson (PK, 50.5) vs. Cal Prediction
Friday, 10:30 p.m. ET
Pick: Clemson PK
The game against Syracuse is the root cause of this line move against Cal. The Golden Bears did go on the road and win that game 21-18, but were the benefactors of three Steve Angeli interceptions, one of them a pick-six. Syracuse missed a game-tying field goal after the turnover that led to the deficit. According to Game On Paper, Cal only averaged 27.1 yards per drive in that game and still had a lower EPA/Play than Syracuse, despite not turning the ball over at all. The Bears had just 4.33 yards per play, 1.31 fewer YPP than Syracuse.
Clemson got an assist from Mother Nature, as the Tigers trailed 17-15 with just over eight minutes left in the fourth quarter and North Carolina knocking on the door to extend their lead. After the lightning delay, Clemson came back ready to play, North Carolina didn’t, and the Tigers came from behind to secure a huge win. It should also be noted, though, that Clemson was easily the better team in the box score, posting 0.16 EPA/Play to North Carolina’s -0.09 and the Tigers had over a yard per play more than the Tar Heels.
It should absolutely be noted that a lot of advanced metrics for Clemson’s full body of work do not include a big chunk of the 51-10 loss to LSU because so many plays qualified as “garbage time” with the big lead. So, those are skewed a little bit, but the Clemson defense has buckled down over the last two games, allowing just 4.56 YPP. Cal’s offense is certainly much closer to UNC or Georgia Southern than it is to LSU.
It also seems to be that the market believes Tait Reynolds is a better option than Chris Vizzina. Reynolds, a three-star in the 2026 class who kept his 2024 commitment to Clemson, has had happy feet so far. He’s been sacked eight times and only has 1.8 yards per carry on 30 attempts, but he’s been the more accurate passer between the two and should continue to develop chemistry with T.J. Moore and Bryant Wesco Jr.
Cal certainly has the more accomplished QB in Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. We’ll see if the confidence he gained in the blowout win over Wagner will carry over, but JKS was 45-of-75 (60%) for 453 yards with a 4/2 TD/INT ratio and four sacks in his first two games against FBS competition. This should be the best defense he has faced thus far, but UCLA held Cal to -0.12 EPA/Play, so the Bears have a negative EPA/Play in both of their FBS games and outcomes that would have graded in the 19th and 16th percentiles relative to 2025 numbers in that category.
JKS is definitely a promising player, but Cal has only mustered 3.4 yards per carry and just 2.8 YPC against FBS opponents. There isn’t much balance to this offense right now. Under former Oregon DC and first-year head coach Tosh Lupoi, the defense has allowed 6.4 YPP to the two FBS opponents, so that unit has struggled as well.
Clemson vs. Cal Prediction
It is an ugly bet in some respects and you could make a case for both teams, but Cal’s statistical performance in their two FBS games does raise a ton of performance concerns. Clemson might be showing some signs of getting back on track, but the defense, if nothing else, is the best unit on the field in this game. And, as they say, defense travels.
Pick: Clemson PK
Other Friday Games
Army (-3, 48) at Temple: This is an early game in Philly with a 4 p.m. ET kickoff, as the Black Knights lay a field goal against the Owls. Temple’s 48-point outburst against Toledo possibly inflated this total, as it’s come down from 50 to 48. The Owls gave up 536 yards and 49 points in the loss, so their defense is certainly a question mark. Conversely, we know very little about Army, as they beat up Bryant, lost to South Florida, and then had a bye week. Cale Hellums threw for 91 yards and only ran for 55 in the loss to the Bulls, which is not really how Army wants to draw it up. Lean Temple here, but no official pick.
Navy (-7, 51) at UAB: Army isn’t the only service academy in action, as Navy heads back to the field on Friday as well. QB Braxton Woodson is week-to-week with an ankle injury, which means Jackson Gutierrez likely starts. Gutierrez racked up 100 passing yards and 75 rushing yards to go with three total touchdowns against Florida Atlantic, but the Owls did lead 31-7 at half. Early money for this 7 p.m. ET kick did come in on UAB, maybe as a reaction to the Woodson injury, as I’m not sure I’d be backing a team that only beat UL Monroe by 6, a Warhawks team that just lost to SE Louisiana last week, and couldn’t get off the field against Louisiana. My line is -7 here, but maybe Gutierrez is a spark plug for the Middies. I’ll lay -7 here. Pick: Navy -7
Northwestern at Indiana (-21.5, 49.5): The only home favorite on Friday is Indiana and they’re laying three scores to Northwestern. The Purple Cats looked great in the blowout win over Colorado last week, but the Hoosiers are a different beast. The market has been downgrading Western Kentucky like crazy and Indiana only beat the Hilltoppers 38-0 last week, which I think has some scared to play this number. New Northwestern QB Aidan Chiles was 27-of-33 for 243 yards and a TD, plus he had eight carries for 48 yards with Michigan State last season against the Hoosiers. Guess we’ll see how he does the second time with a new team. No play from me.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 4 games on our Pro Picks Page.
