MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, September 25.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
6:40 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Freddy Peralta has been significantly better recently with three runs allowed in his past five starts, but in his past nine starts has gotten only seven strikeouts per nine innings, while his career average is 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings. Overall this season, he owns a 4.56 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 3.3 walks per nine innings and faces a Phillies lineup that averages nearly 4.9 runs per game at home compared to closer to 4.1 runs per game away from home. Cristopher Sánchez overall has a 2.93 ERA this season with 9.9 strikeouts and two walks per nine innings, but has a 4.13 ERA in his past 18 starts after registering a 1.54 ERA in his first 14 starts of the season.
Pick: Rays vs. Phillies Over 6.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.1
6:45 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals
The Mets are currently listing their starting pitcher as to be determined, but considering they traded their entire bullpen at the trade deadline, they are unlikely to have many good options. The Nationals give Andrew Alvarez the start, who has a 3.17 ERA with 0.4 home runs and 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings while being supported by a lineup that is third in scoring with 5.1 runs per game. The Mets are 21st in scoring with 4.3 runs per game.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline +114
Greg’s Handicap: Nationals -128
7:07 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Toronto Blue Jays
As of right now, José Soriano is listed as the Blue Jays starting pitcher, though he either may not start or be limited with the Blue Jays officially eliminated from playoff contention. But even with that, the Blue Jays’ pitching options are far better than those of the Reds, who have Nick Lodolo starting with his 5.04 ERA while serving up 1.7 home runs and 3.8 walks per nine innings. It is also a Reds bullpen that was used for much of the game on Thursday, with Brady Singer going only three innings in that game. The Reds are 29th in the league in bullpen ERA since August 1 at 5.14, while the Blue Jays are fourth in this span with a 3.22 ERA.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline -134 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays -142 and Total 8.5
7:40 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Cardinals starting pitcher Michael McGreevy has a 3.84 ERA with 6.2 strikeouts and 1.2 home runs allowed per nine innings while being supported by a bullpen that is 22nd in ERA at 4.45. The offense is third in road scoring with 5.2 runs per game. Brewers starting pitcher Robert Gasser has a 4.01 ERA with 1.2 home runs and three walks per nine innings and has the support of a lineup that is leading baseball in scoring at home with nearly 5.6 runs per game.
Pick: Cardinals vs. Brewers Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.7
8:10 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Minnesota Twins
Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan has struggled down the stretch, with the team 0-6 in his last six starts while he has posted a 7.67 ERA with 11 home runs allowed in 28 1/3 innings in this stretch. The Rangers are likely to go with Jacob deGrom, who owns a 3.86 ERA with 11.1 strikeouts and 2.4 walks per nine innings, but that rises to a 5.35 ERA away from home. Since July 1, the Rangers are 28th in bullpen ERA at 5.24. The Rangers are also 25th in scoring with 4.2 runs per game, while the Twins are 11th with over 4.5 runs per game.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline -108 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Rangers -125 and Total 8.2
9:40 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
Padres starting pitcher Casey Mize overall this season has a 3.96 ERA with 1.1 home runs and 2.5 walks per nine innings, but in his nine starts with the Padres has a 6.64 ERA with 2.2 home runs and 3.8 walks per nine innings while getting 5.3 strikeouts per nine innings. Diamondbacks starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt is registering a 3.72 ERA, but is pitching to a lot of contact with only 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings and has allowed at least three runs in four of his past six starts. San Diego is third in scoring since the All-Star Break with 5.1 runs per game.
Pick: Padres Moneyline -132 and Over 7.2 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Padres -148 and Total 8.4
