Week 5 college football best bets
T Shoe Index best bets went 2-1 again last week, so we’re starting to build some momentum as the model gets a better handle on these teams. I mentioned on my podcast, “Calculated Risk”, that I am more aggressive in phasing out my preseason priors for each team to attempt to get ahead of the betting market. There are pros and cons to it, but my overall ATS record is proving it to be a worthwhile risk. Let’s see what TSI has on the card for this week.
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Rice (-3) vs East Carolina, O/U 46.5
You never know how well or poorly Rice is going to play on a week to week basis; do you get the team that beat Houston or the team that just lost to South Florida? The one thing you can count on, however, is that there will be points. The Rice defense is No. 110 in TSI defensive ratings, while ECU is rated No. 76. Both offenses are in the 70s overall, but in the top 25 of Group of Five offenses. The average point totals in these teams’ games has been 57.5, and TSI projects it similarly, at 56.5. I have no clue who’s going to show up and win the game, but I do expect there to be plenty of points in the process.
Pick: Over 46.5 Points (Play to 48)
Georgia Tech (-22) vs Bowling Green, O/U 51.5
This is not going to be a fun bet, but it’s a numbers game and the number here is entirely too high based on every metric I value. I project Georgia Tech as a 10.5-point favorite in this game, and I haven’t seen a model I respect project this any higher than 14 points. Bowling Green is not a good football team, but this is a good spot for them as Tech has a huge game against Miami (FL) looming next week. I’m not a huge “situational spot” handicapper, but this certainly fits the lookahead spot criteria, and the huge discrepancy in the number makes this a must-play for me. Matchup wise, Bowling Green has the No. 66 offense and No. 104 defense in my ratings, while Georgia Tech is No. 42 and No. 82, respectively. Hold your nose and take the points with the Falcons.
Pick: Bowling Green +22 (Play to 21)
Georgia State (-1) vs Troy, O/U 50
Georgia State is a team that TSI has been high on from the jump, but I wasn’t quite sure enough to bet them and they just continue to cover. My number indicates the market hasn’t quite caught up to the Panthers yet, so I’m going to jump on another big discrepancy on the number, coupled with another good situational spot with Troy coming off a huge win vs. Western Kentucky last week. TSI projects Georgia State -9.5 here, as the Panthers have the No. 32-rated offense, although just the No. 98-rated defense. This Troy team is one that TSI has had a pretty good handle on, being much lower on the market in the preseason and I actually bet them to cover last week and they did. The Trojans are rated just No. 102 on offense and No. 62 on defense – which I don’t think is going to be enough to slow down this Panthers offense. Give me Georgia State laying the point.
Pick: Georgia State -1 (Play to 2.5)
To learn more about who I am or what my T Shoe Index is, be sure to read my introduction on VSiN.com and check out my free CFB guide with ratings, projections and win probabilities for every single game this season and follow me on X, @TShoeIndex.
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