Pitt vs. Virginia Tech
A trio of tilts on Friday night includes a couple of Power Four games, with Pitt vs. Virginia Tech and Penn State vs. Northwestern. We live in some wild times, as the Wildcats are under a field goal underdog to the Nittany Lions. As I wrote about in this week’s Opening Line Report, the Purple Cats have been pups of 20.5, 27, 25.5, and 14.5 over the last four head-to-head meetings, which were in 2017, ‘22, ‘23, and ‘25. Between Northwestern’s effort against Indiana and Penn State wetting themselves at home against Wisconsin, we’ve seen a big adjustment in this line. Personally, I’d have made it Penn State -8 prior to my power ratings adjustments off of last week’s results.
Let’s look in-depth at these two games and I won’t forget about Liberty vs. Delaware, where the Flames are touchdown favorites in the biggest line of the evening.
Odds from Circa Sports as of September 29, 7:30 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 5 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Pitt vs. Virginia Tech Prediction (-3.5, 55)
Friday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Pick: Pitt +3.5
Enter Sandman will hit differently for the first conference home game than it did for Old Dominion and VMI, as the Hokies host the Panthers at Lane Stadium. Both teams are 4-0. Per some internet sleuthing done by Hokies fans, this is the first time in “modern history” two 4-0 power-conference teams have both been unranked heading into the game. Not sure how far back “modern history” goes, but Pitt has played the 97th-ranked schedule per Jeff Sagarin and VaTech has played the 131st-ranked schedule, so it probably has something to do with that.
We’ve seen a little bit of movement towards the Pitt side of the spread, even though they’ll be on the road for the first time this season. Sagarin’s rankings actually have Pitt as a Top 25 team, while Virginia Tech is in the upper 40s. The Panthers own two power-conference wins – UCF and Syracuse – and blowouts over Miami (OH) and Bucknell where they scored 59 points in each game.
The Hokies have a clean sheet as well, with a couple of power-conference dubs over Maryland and Boston College. Last week’s 21-14 win over the Eagles may seem unimpressive on the surface, but the game was played in a nor’easter and the Hokies had a big fourth quarter with two touchdown drives and then a nine-play, 42-yard possession over the final 3:25 to seal the game.
Statistically speaking, Pitt easily has the more dynamic offense, racking up 6.4 yards per play against FBS foes, while Virginia Tech sits just shy of 5.2 YPP. Similarly, Pitt’s defense has put up better numbers against FBS competition, allowing 4.6 YPP to Virginia Tech’s 5.6 YPP. Pitt is a top-15 team in net points per drive per BCFToys, while Virginia Tech is 18th. Both teams have played well and have done what has been asked of them.
But, Pitt has done so against a stronger schedule and has the stronger resume statistically. My line here is Virginia Tech -0.5, so getting three and the hook is enough for me to back my numbers, while also factoring in all the things I’ve already mentioned.
Penn State (-2.5, 45.5) vs. Northwestern
8 p.m. ET (FOX)
I know the intro was heavy on this game and then I started with the ACC one, but it seemed right to go chronologically, as this 8 p.m. ET kick is actually the late game for Friday. This is a short number given the recent history of these two teams, but Northwestern did go to Happy Valley and win last season, officially putting the final nail in James Franklin’s Unhappy Valley coffin. Franklin was fired a day later.
A good chunk of the roster has turned over, so I’m not sure how much of a “revenge” spot this is for the Nittany Lions. Penn State’s setback came after beating Marshall, Temple, and Buffalo by a combined score of 127-22. It turns out that stepping up in class to play a more comparable opponent was something that Matt Campbell’s squad wasn’t ready for. His offense put up a paltry 3.62 yards per play and had just a 28% Success Rate. QB Rocco Becht, a multi-year starter for Campbell at Iowa State, was just 12-of-29 for 114 yards with a pick.
The Wildcats didn’t have many answers defensively for Indiana, as they only gave up 29 points, but did allow nearly 500 yards and just shy of seven yards per play. Where Northwestern did have success, though, was on offense, where they posted an 83rd percentile EPA/Dropback per Game On Paper and an 82nd percentile Explosive Play Rate. That’s not something we’ve seen much against Indiana in the Curt Cignetti era.
I don’t have a pick in this one. Northwestern’s offense may very well keep humming with QB Aidan Chiles and new OC Chip Kelly, who seems to have injected some much-needed life into that unit. But, I do think they have some defensive issues. It’s just a question of whether or not Penn State can exploit them and I don’t know the answer to that.
Other Friday Game
Liberty (-7, 50) at Delaware: Delaware is two up and two down, having been pummeled last week by Virginia in a 42-3 shellacking. Their other loss was a game effort against Vanderbilt, falling by nine in Nashville. They, too, have a win over Coastal Carolina, which is who Liberty beat last week.
What I do like about the Blue Hens here is that they got torched through the air last week, but not on the ground. Against an ACC opponent, Delaware only allowed 2.9 yards per carry. Similarly, when they played Vanderbilt, the pass defense was exposed, but the run defense only allowed 2.6 yards per tote. Liberty wants to run the ball and that’s where they have success. Deshawn Purdie has a 7/0 TD/INT ratio, but he’s completed under 60% of his passes.
My line here is actually Liberty -2.5. Delaware is a pretty experienced team with QB Nick Minucucci and a lot of returning production from last season. Perhaps I downgraded the Flames too much after their 24-23 win against Gardner-Webb, as their last two performances have been solid, but this line feels too big.
Pick: Delaware +7
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 5 games on our Pro Picks Page.
