Some teams are built for 162. Some teams are built for October. That could be what we see in this series, as the Rays and Yankees come together in a battle of AL East rivals. While Tampa Bay led the East throughout most of the season and did ultimately take down the division title and the No. 1 seed in the AL, New York’s power production and top-heavy rotation are the traits of a ballclub that you look to back in the postseason.
Obviously New York has had those elements in recent seasons and hasn’t been able to parlay that into winning their 28th World Championship, but their ability to hit the long ball is something that has to be respected in any series, especially this one. The Rays found ways to score runs and only scored three fewer runs than the Yankees, so we’ll see if they can keep pace with their own offensive strategy.
These two teams played 13 times in the regular season. The Rays won seven of them, but were outscored 54-45. New York took three of four during the series in September. The Rays actually won the first four head-to-head meetings of the season, but only won two of the remaining nine games. We’ll see if that was foreshadowing, coincidence, or something else, as these two teams square off for the right to go to the ALCS.
Yankees vs. Rays ALDS Odds
Yankees -120 // Rays +100
Total Games: 4.5 (+150/-180)
Yankees vs. Rays ALDS Schedule
Game 1 @ TB: Saturday, October 3, 6:30 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV)
Game 2 @ TB: Monday, October 5, 8 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV)
Game 3 @ NYY: Wednesday, October 7, TBD (TBS/truTV)
Game 4 @ NYY: Thursday, October 8, TBD (TBS/truTV) – if necessary
Game 5 @ TB: Saturday, October 10, TBD (TBS/truTV) – if necessary
Yankees vs. Rays Offense
Edge: Yankees
The Rays did a lot of good things on offense. They batted .258 and had the lowest K% in the league. They finished right in the middle of the pack in slugging percentage, which is no small feat given how great of a pitcher’s park Tropicana Field is. En route to going 55-26 at home, the Rays scored 373 runs, 10 more than they scored on the road. As one of the smartest organizations in baseball on an annual basis, the Rays just find ways to stay ahead of the curve as much as they can.
This season, that was doing everything that they could to make contact. Only the Rockies saw fewer pitches per plate appearance than the Rays. The goal is to put pressure on the defense and hit pitches where they are pitched. Only the Brewers used the opposite field more than the Rays and Tampa Bay also had the fourth-highest rate of hitting the ball up the middle. The Yankees were third in Pull%. The Rays were 29th.
So, we’ll see if that strategy works in this specialized environment going up against Gerrit Cole, Cam Schlittler, and Max Fried. All of those pitchers are guys who can limit balls in play and certainly limit the ability to drive the baseball. Limiting run-scoring opportunities is the name of the game in the postseason. The Rays hit .284 with runners in scoring position during the regular season, but were 11th in plate appearances with that situation. So, my guess would be that they don’t find themselves in that situation at a high rate in the postseason. It is also hard to carry a .324 BABIP in that split as well, something I worry about with the Brewers and their .330 BABIP with RISP against the Padres.
That is the shortcoming with this kind of offense. Batted ball luck is really important, whereas hitting home runs just means guaranteed offense. That’s one of the reasons why the Yankees are so dangerous in the postseason. They hit 223 home runs in a season where Aaron Judge missed a large chunk of games.
Yes, the Yankees will strike out. They had the fourth-highest K% in the league. They also had the fifth-highest BB% in the league. Given the power production, that trade-off works quite well, especially in this environment. The Rays did everything that they could to limit walks, holding opponents to a 6.9% BB%. But, they were also 14th in K%. Pitching to contact has its benefits. It also has its drawbacks. For a team that was pretty average defensively, those drawbacks could be noteworthy in this series.
Yankees vs. Rays Pitching
Edge: Neither
Run prevention was a strength for the Rays during the regular season, especially because they were able to limit free passes. Their 6.9% BB% against was the lowest in baseball, helping them to a 3.72 ERA with a 4.04 FIP. As a pitching staff, though, the Yankees had the lowest ERA at 3.24.
The reason why I don’t give the Yankees a clear advantage is because they had to play the Wild Card Round and Aaron Boone rode Cam Schlittler very, very hard in that Game 1 start. I don’t know that he’ll experience any residual impact from that outing when he gets the call in Game 2 here, but that was a big ask on a big stage and Boone squeezed every last drop out. Max Fried will be ready to go by Game 3. It’s easy to prefer the Big Three with Gerrit Cole included over the Rays and their journeymen-esque staff.
But, I do love Drew Rasmussen and Freddy Peralta really put it together late in the season, finishing with a 3.25 ERA, 3.74 xERA, and a 3.93 FIP with the Rays over 10 regular-season starts. Given that he allowed seven runs in his first start and 17 runs over his first four starts, they really dialed him in late in the season and I think he could be a real key to this series. Also, Griffin Jax likely slots into a multi-inning reliever role, something he is very accustomed to.
Both teams have pretty good bullpens by the numbers. It is a bit worrisome to me that the Rays pen isn’t really built on strikeouts and had the seventh-lowest GB%. You don’t want to let the Yankees elevate the baseball if you can help it and those late-inning mistakes are particularly troublesome.
New York, meanwhile, had the eighth-highest GB% in the league as a relief unit. We’ll see if that plays a factor in this series, especially when things shift to Yankee Stadium for Games 3 and 4.
Yankees vs. Rays Miscellaneous Notes
The Rays were a bit better of a defensive team, which makes sense because they have to really pay attention to the details because they cannot outslug their mistakes like the Yankees can. That said, Austin Wells was one of the best catchers in baseball at framing pitches at the bottom of the zone and that could be a really valuable skill in this series. The Rays don’t hit for a lot of power and are aggressive early in counts. If Wells is stealing strikes to put Rays hitters in negative counts, that is a huge boost to the Yankees pitching staff.
How aggressive will the Rays be on the bases? They have to know that manufacturing runs by stealing extra bases is one way to mitigate New York’s power advantage. The Rays were second to the Nationals with 164 steals during the regular season. The Yankees were sixth with 153, but I think they’ll be less likely to put baserunners at risk here because of their ability to hit home runs. Conversely, the Rays probably need to be more aggressive. Wells was only 14-of-64 throwing out runners. If I’m Tampa Bay, I’m trying to use that to my advantage.
Yankees vs. Rays ALDS Prediction
Pick: Yankees -120
I find -120 on the Yankees to be a cheap price here. I do like Rasmussen and Peralta, but they likely go up against Cole and Schlittler. I’m less enamored with guys like Ian Seymour and Nick Martinez in this series, especially if they are called upon in the Bronx. Again, it’s just easy to prefer New York here because of their ability to hit home runs. The playoffs are built on hitting homers and one team does it a lot better than the other in this series.
I don’t know how much this will matter, but the Rays don’t have much of a home-field advantage when taking on teams from the northeast or other cold-weather cities. All the snowbirds and transplants show up and we’re likely to see very pro-Yankees crowds at the Trop. I can’t quantify what that means necessarily, but it could very well help the Yanks.
Other series previews: White Sox/Guardians | Braves/Dodgers | Padres/Brewers
