College Football

College football Week 6 picks from Steve Makinen

October 5, 2023

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Steve Makinen is our main numbers guy here at VSiN, and his weekly best bets are a “greatest hits” compilation of system matches, betting trends analysis, and his proprietary power ratings, which can only be found right here at VSiN.com. Follow up with Steve’s weekly content, which is linked in the explanations for his picks.

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After an extremely tough Saturday last week in my college football bets, I am subscribing to the less is more theory this week, narrowing my top selections to just six. Quite honestly, I’m not sure I’ve gotten over some of the real tough beats from last week, including, but not limited to Northwestern’s 28-point loss to Penn State in a game they were competitive in for the near entirety, and the late TD run that Duke gave up when Notre Dame was seemingly happy to line up for the would-be winning field goal. The tough losses always hurt more than the wins feel good, that’s for sure. Oh well, let’s move on…

College Football Odds | College Football Betting Splits | College Football Power Ratings

(odds as of October 5, 3:54 p.m. PT)

Kentucky at Georgia

Interesting game between the hedges this week in Athens, with Kentucky and Georgia going at it for the lead in the SEC East Division. Neither team has lost yet in 2023, but arguably, the Wildcats are off to the better start, as they are 4-1 ATS while the Bulldogs have gone 0-4-1 ATS.

In fact, it seems on the surface as if head coach Kirby Smart’s team is simply going through the motions. However, I would counter that champions always get an opponent’s best effort, and the oddsmakers make things tougher for the champion team by overpricing them.

However, that doesn’t seem to be the case this week, as my Power Ratings say Georgia should be favored by 17.5 points, not 14.5. I also find it unique that 82% of the handle at DraftKings was on underdog Kentucky at press time, yet the guys behind the counter have refused to move the line to 14.

I think most of the so-called experts believe that Kentucky won’t be able to mount much of a challenge offensively. This week, a system in our Analytics Report calls for an Under in a game between two ranked teams when the host is a double-digit favorite. That supports my belief too that UK will struggle offensively. I don’t think the Bulldogs will light up the board either, but I could easily see a 31-10 type of game here.

Play Georgia -14.5 (I’d love 14 but will go up to 16.5 too) and/or Under 47.5 as well

LSU at Missouri

Going to totally trust the system data on this one as in our CFB Analytics Report for this week, there are not one, not two, but all three systems for the two ranked team games this week favoring Missouri.

First, in games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 151-75 SU and 130-89-7 ATS (59.4%). Second, digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 88-16 SU and 65-36-3 ATS (64.4%). And third, adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 44-13 SU and 40-15-2 ATS (72.7%) since 2017.

These teams have to be in different mental states before heading into the contest. LSU has already lost twice now, so it has to be readjusting its goals for 2023. That’s tough for a team that believed it was a national title contender. Meanwhile, Missouri is off to its best start in a long time and has its sights set on contending in the SEC. The Tigers are also very tough at home and are playing incredibly good run defense to start the season. Head coach Eli Drinkwitz’s team has a lot going for it right now. They will come to play on Saturday.

Take Missouri +4 with anything +/- 1 point sold as well

Oklahoma vs. Texas

Some of the toughest spots to handicap in college football are when you have both teams in a certain game lined up with futures wagers for going Over their season win totals. Quite honestly, I loved the prospects for Oklahoma and Texas heading into this season; neither has disappointed so far.

In fact, at this point, I have the teams as the #4 and #5 teams in the country in my power ratings, and #1 and #5 in my Effective Strength Ratings. So, as I look at this showdown from a betting perspective, I have to ask…where did this egregious line come from? This game is on a neutral field, has two elite teams, and there will be no shortage of motivation on either sideline. It just doesn’t feel like the game should have a 5.5-point line.

Yes, I know the Longhorns clobbered the Sooners a year ago, but that game snapped a four-game series winning streak for OU, and quite frankly, head coach Brent Venables’ team was not ready for that game or that season for that matter. The magnitude of the blowout (49-0) also brings revenge motivation for the Sooners. Since the start of the 2016 season, neutral-field underdogs playing in revenge mode have gone 40-25 ATS (61.5%). The public loves Texas, I just don’t see why this game wouldn’t be competitive.

Take Oklahoma +5.5 (anything +3.5 or over is also fine)

Purdue at Iowa

Season-ending injuries to quarterbacks can be a huge deal in college football or amount to very little. We’re going to find out the result for Iowa starting this week as the team moves on without Cade McNamara. By the way things have gone for the Hawkeyes’ offense so far, I can’t imagine things would get much worse without him in the lineup. They are scoring just 22.2 PPG and gaining just 133.8 yards passing per game in their first five outings. They are still 4-1.

In other words, I don’t think replacing him with last year’s starter Spencer Petras will impact this team that much. It has impacted the line though, favorably for Iowa backers, as at -2.5, it looks like oddsmakers are giving us about 3.5 points that we didn’t really expect.

Plus, the fact that Iowa had a brutal offensive outing last week in a win versus MSU gives us reason to expect better this week: Over the last decade, college football teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 63-38 ATS (62.4%) in the follow-up contest. In last year’s game between these teams at Purdue, the Boilermakers were held to season-low totals for both points and yards. It will be much tougher in Iowa City.

Take Iowa -2.5 and anything up to -4

Colorado at Arizona State

For as much as the fact that Colorado lost last week, I felt like it was a huge bounce-back effort from Coach Prime’s club against USC, coming off the shellacking at Oregon the week prior. The Buffaloes seemed to get the mojo back, which was a huge part of the 3-0 start.

After those two highly difficult back-to-back games, the schedule lightens up considerably this week, with a trip to Tempe to take on Arizona State. It’s been a different story for the Sun Devils the last two weeks, as they have played competitively in back-to-back losses to Cal and USC. That said, they did allow 535 yards of offense to the Trojans. Colorado “only” allowed 498 last week while gaining 564 yards of its own.

That huge offensive outburst leads us to a great extreme game system that will be in play: College football teams that lost a game as an underdog despite gaining 550 or more yards on offense have bounced back well lately, going 58-37 ATS (61.1%) over the last 10 years. With the difficult schedule CU plays all season long, these types of games are must-wins. I expect Deion to have his team ready to do just that.

Take Colorado -4.5, or anything within +/- 1 point

Washington State at UCLA

If you recall my article from the VSiN CFB Betting Guide on the DraftKings Betting Splits Systems, there was one angle in which the betting public won more than they lost: When the majority of the handle was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, this majority group was 100-82 ATS (54.9%). Now, 54.9% is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates, showing that being on the “smart” side of the majority handle can pay off.

This week’s potential smart money is on Washington State as the underdog at UCLA. There are a few specific reasons why I think that WaSU makes for a good underdog here. First, the Cougars seem to be rallying around the fact that they have been left out of the conference realignment procedures and it has given them a cohesiveness that might not have been there otherwise, as well as a chip on their shoulder. Second, underdogs in the series between them and the Bruins are on runs of 6-0 ATS, 10-2 ATS, and 12-3 ATS. And finally, if you consider nothing more than the QB matchup, UCLA relies on a freshman in Dante Moore, whose only big game experience was in a 14-7 loss at Utah two weeks ago where the offense gained just 243 yards.

Washington State has a fourth-year senior in Cam Ward who has attempted over 1500 passes in his career and has a 13:0 TD-Int ratio in 2023. He is playing extremely well as the Cougars are averaging over 400 YPG through the air. His team will never be out of this game, even if they trail at any point.

Take Washington State +4.5 and anything +3 or more