The 2026 tennis season has moved into the Asian Swing, and we’ll be paying close attention to the ATP Masters 1000 in Shanghai. This is an interesting portion of the season, as nobody is thinking about Grand Slams. Everyone is simply jockeying for year-end positioning. The conditions are different, too. The courts and the humidity in China play differently than the North American hard courts, and that affects who can control rallies, who can hold serve, and who even has the physicality required to finish matches.
Fortunately for all of us, there’s no shortage of matches to break down as the week unfolds, and I’ll keep posting my tennis best bets daily. Because of the time difference, matches overnight in the US run across two calendar days. With that in mind, keep reading for my tennis best bets for Wednesday, October 7 and Thursday, October 8. Also, keep an eye on the new VSiN Community and the VSiN Pro Picks page for other plays. I posted my tournament futures in the Community on Tuesday.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Ilia Simakin vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Facundo Diaz Acosta vs. Nuno Borges
Simakin is No. 154 in the world, which puts him comfortably behind Ugo Carabelli’s ranking of No. 77. However, Simakin’s implied probability of winning this match is up at 70%, despite most of the action being on Ugo Carabelli. Simakin is definitely the “sharp” side in this match. Sometimes that’s enough for me to blindly play something, as I’m fully capable of accepting that there are smarter tennis handicappers than me out there. And right now, a ton of them are on Simakin. However, I’m not willing to play it at -220. Instead, I’m parlaying Simakin with Borges, bringing the odds down to -111.
With the Borges match, we’re getting a player who is 7-4 since returning to hard courts in August. He’s also a player who hits productive flat strokes from the baseline, he’s in great shape, and he’s solid as both a server and a returner. So, when looking for someone to pair with Simakin, Borges stood out. He’s going up against a clay-court specialist, so I expect him to figure this out.
PARLAY: Simakin ML & Borges ML (-111 – 1.5 units)
Nicolas Mejia vs. Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Cerundolo has a rest advantage over Mejia, but that’s fine with me. Mejia won two matches in these conditions in qualifying and didn’t drop a set, and I’ll take his form over Cerundolo’s rest.
Cerundolo is also a very disappointing hard-court player, and I’m not sure he has the power to easily win this match. Mejia is going to sit deep and look to counter everything, extending rallies and keeping Cerundolo from getting comfortable. Cerundolo should also be in trouble on serve quite a bit in this match.
Would it shock me if Cerundolo wins this? Definitely not. However, I don’t see this being straightforward for him. Honestly, I’m not sure there’s much that separates these players. Cerundolo has been a fringe ATP-quality player for years, and a fluky win over Jannik Sinner changed the way people talk about him. We need to put that result in the rearview mirror.
Bet: Mejia +1.5 Sets (-152 – 1.5 units) & Mejia ML (+190 – 0.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
