East Carolina vs. UAB
Four Conference USA games opened up Week 7, but now the college football world gets to focus on three different conferences for Thursday night. Georgia Southern vs. OId Dominion, East Carolina vs. UAB, and Colorado State vs. Texas State are the three games on the slate, featuring the Sun Belt, American, and Pac-12. The late game of the three could have the most entertainment value with a total that peaked at 72 before coming back down to 69.5 or 70, but it is the Pirates vs. Blazers game that has my best bet for Thursday.
I’ll hit on all three games, but East Carolina vs. UAB gets the top billing here as we keep inching closer to a loaded Saturday slate dripping with potential drama.
Odds from Circa Sports as of October 14, 7:50 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 7 College Football Picks and Predictions.
East Carolina (-4.5, 47.5) vs. UAB Prediction
Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Pick: East Carolina -4.5
It hasn’t been the season that Blake Harrell was hoping for just yet, but the Pirates appear to be rounding into form a little bit. The 27-24 loss at home to App State doesn’t look great, but Harrell, who was the Pirates DC before getting elevated to HC, has that side of the ball going in the right direction with just 38 points allowed over the last three games.
Losing DC Josh Aldridge was definitely a blow, and so was losing QB Katin Houser, so I’m not surprised that it has taken a bit of time for the Pirates to get into rhythm. QB Emory Williams has a 5/1 TD/INT ratio and a 64.9% completion rate, officially taking the starting gig from Mitch Griffis. He wasn’t terribly sharp against Rice, going just 19-of-31 for 143 yards, but he had two TD passes, was only sacked twice, and didn’t turn the ball over.
More notably, the Pirates had 12 tackles for loss in that game against the Owls and rank second in the nation with 51, an average of 10.2 per game. Despite a decent record to start the season, UAB’s offense is still awful, averaging just 5.03 yards per play. The Blazers only have 4.78 YPP against non-power FBS opponents. East Carolina’s defense should completely swallow up the Blazers. Ryder Burton has already been sacked 16 times and has more interceptions (5) than touchdown passes (4). Leading rusher Rod Robinson II has zero rushing scores on 93 carries.
UAB’s defense has really improved, as they allowed 7.7 YPP to Illinois, but have only allowed 4.9 YPP to non-power FBS teams. That said, their wins are UL Monroe, Navy, and Samford, as the Middies blew a fourth-quarter lead with the help of two fumbles and a turnover on downs.
ECU came off the bye and had 5.7 yards per carry and held Rice to just 233 total yards. Also, while it’s a short week for both teams, and the Pirates have to travel to Birmingham, at least they had NC Central and then a bye. The Blazers are playing for the seventh straight week.
Other Thursday Games
Georgia Southern (-3.5, 47.5) vs. Old Dominion: The other 7:30 kickoff on Thursday is in Norfolk between the Eagles and Monarchs. I picked against ODU last week by laying the big number with App State in a bad-weather game. The Monarchs won 10-3 after giving up 42 to Georgia State and 46 to James Madison. App State QB Malachi Singleton was 5-of-23 passing and the Mountaineers had just 158 yards while going 1-of-13 on third down.
Did the Monarchs make some substantive changes on defense or were the Mountaineers just awful? I’m inclined to think the latter, especially with the weather in play. That said, Georgia Southern has been a disappointment so far, even though they have played a harder schedule than just about anybody in the Sun Belt. The step down in class might be a get-right game, especially since Max Johnson has an 11/2 TD/INT ratio despite already playing Clemson, Houston, and James Madison.
Colorado State vs. Texas State (-14, 70): The 8 p.m. tilt from San Marcos has seen a lot of activity on the side and total. The total shot up pretty quickly early in the week, but Colorado State QB Hauss Hejny is out again. He has a 10/1 TD/INT ratio with a 64.4% completion rate, so the total has come back down and the side has gotten heavier on the Bobcats. Hejny also has 13 carries for 128 yards and has been way more productive than K’saan Farrar.
Remember, Colorado State head coach Jim Mora Jr. fired DC Tyson Summers early in the first half against Oregon State on Oct. 3. Perhaps the defense will improve a bit with some extra time to try different things following last week’s bye. I won’t hold my breath, though.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 7 games on our Pro Picks Page.
