The 2026 tennis season has moved into the Asian Swing, and we’ll be paying close attention to the ATP Masters 1000 in Shanghai and WTA 1000 in Wuhan. This is an interesting portion of the season, as nobody is thinking about Grand Slams. Everyone is simply jockeying for year-end positioning. The conditions are different, too. The courts and the humidity in China play differently than the North American hard courts, and that affects who can control rallies, who can hold serve, and who even has the physicality required to finish matches.
Fortunately for all of us, there’s no shortage of matches to break down as the week unfolds, and I’ll keep posting my tennis best bets daily. Because of the time difference, matches overnight in the US run across two calendar days. With that in mind, keep reading for my tennis best bets for Wednesday, October 14 and Thursday, October 15. Also, keep an eye on the new VSiN Community and the VSiN Pro Picks page for other plays.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Arthur Gea vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Gea has been one of 2026’s breakout stars, as he’s 16-7 since the start of the season and has made some impressive runs in big events. This one is no different. The Frenchman is into the quarterfinals after having earned wins over Ugo Humbert, Ben Shelton, and Jakub Mensik. Now, he’ll look to take out Davidovich Fokina to book a spot in the semifinals. However, this is where I think his luck will run out.
Even with this being a great season for Gea, the numbers tell a good story for Davidovich Fokina. Over the last 52 weeks, in non-majors, Davidovich Fokina has a stronger Performance Rating (7.70 vs. 7.03), Serve Quality (7.8 vs. 7.2), Return Quality (7.0 vs. 6.0), and Backhand Quality (7.8 vs. 6.7). Gea’s only major edge in this match is from the forehand wing, but Davidovich Fokina is sturdy enough from that side of the court.
This match just profiles as a war from the back of the court, but it’s a war I’d expect the Spaniard to win. He’s a little more battle-tested, and he’s playing quite well this week. I also think he’ll be pretty excited about seeing the Gea serve after having outlasted Hubert Hurkacz in the Round of 16.
Bet: Davidovich Fokina ML (-120 – 1.5 units)
Sonay Kartal vs. Jasmine Paolini
Paolini hurt me last night, defeating Nikola Bartunkova right before I fell asleep. I really liked Bartunkova in that match, as I am not a huge fan of Paolini’s game right now. However, that one result won’t make me back off my stance, and that’s especially true with Bartunkova having been banged up in that match. That said, I’m going right back to a Paolini fade here.
Kartal isn’t a player with the weapons to hit through Paolini, but the Brit should have the ability to out-grind her opponent. Kartal is a very good mover, she has some big groundstrokes to finish points when she sees opportunities, and she’s also a fighter. She’s going to push Paolini in every way imaginable, and I’m not sure the Italian has enough gas in the tank — or desire — to play a match like this. The fire that got her to the top of the sport just doesn’t seem to be there.
Bet: Kartal ML (+100 – 1.5 units)
Alex de Minaur vs. Alexander Zverev
The last time de Minaur faced Zverev, the Australian came away with a 2-6, 7-6 (5), 11-9 victory in a Laver Cup match. That’s an exhibition event, so it shouldn’t carry much weight. However, de Minaur had been mightily struggling prior to that one, and just seeing one go through the hoop might have given him some confidence. De Minaur followed the Laver Cup up with a run to the final in Beijing, where he looked to have a real shot at beating Novak Djokovic before being forced to retire with injury. Well, that injury clearly wasn’t too bad, as he has already won two matches in straight sets in Shanghai, and he continues to look like a beast.
De Minaur is playing his best tennis of the season, according to TennisViz’s Performance Rating numbers. He was up at 8.20 in Beijing, and he’s not far off that mark in Shanghai. De Minaur’s defense continues to be elite, but his ball-striking has been way more impactful in Asia. And as long as he’s a threat to turn defense into offense, he’ll remain one of the toughest players in the sport to defeat.
As far as this match goes, I like de Minaur to do some great work as a returner, putting pressure on the Zverev serve. And I see him holding his own in longer exchanges, giving him chances to ultimately win the match. So, I’m taking de Minaur to win a set, and I’m also sprinkling the moneyline. Zverev has been awful against strong competition this season, so he’s no lock to beat a top-10 player.
Bet: de Minaur +1.5 Sets (-159 – 1.5 units) & de Minaur ML (+176 – 0.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
