Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston
Sixty-one days of football rolls on with a couple of Conference USA clashes on Wednesday night, with Kennesaw State vs. Missouri State and Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston State. Any Tuesday or Wednesday football game is a good thing and credit to the conference for getting some exposure and some visibility by getting the member schools to play these weeknight affairs.
I’ll start with the late game, as I prefer that one from a betting standpoint, but both games will get some run as we look ahead to an incredible Week 7 Saturday.
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Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston State (PK, 53) Prediction
8 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Pick: Sam Houston PK
Collectively, the Hilltoppers and Bearkats enter this one with a 3-7 record, as WKU improved to 1-1 in conference play last week with a comfortable win over Missouri State. SHSU dropped a 35-3 decision to Liberty, getting outgained by nearly 180 yards in the process. It does seem like the Flames are the class of the conference, while Missouri State is in for a long fall.
Both of these teams have taken some lumps thus far. Sam Houston State actually has the highest strength of schedule in the conference per Jeff Sagarin at 76th, while Western Kentucky is 101st, but the Hilltoppers have already played two of Sagarin’s top-10 teams in Georgia and Indiana. That makes it very important to look at the season-long stats in the proper context when handicapping these Group of Six conference games with two teams that are much more comparable than the non-conference opponents have been.
Against non-power FBS conference opponents, Western Kentucky has 5.14 yards per play, while Sam Houston State has 5.06. Defensively, though there’s a pretty big gap between the teams. The Hilltoppers have allowed 6.37 YPP to non-power opponents, while the Bearkats have allowed 5.83 YPP. Of course, Liberty just had 7.8 YPP against Sam Houston on just 53 plays, but WKU’s offense is nowhere near that level.
That said, we may be seeing an uptick from the Hilltoppers if what we saw last week from Florida State transfer Brock Glenn is to be trusted. Glenn was 20-of-35 for 231 yards and a touchdown, but he ran 15 times for 95 yards. He got the start after Rodney Tisdale Jr. threw for 315 yards in a losing effort against New Mexico State. Glenn is up to 268 rushing yards on the season, while Tisdale has one yard on 31 carries.
When he’s had time to throw, Bearkats QB Landyn Locke has been really good. He’s completed over 66% of his tosses with an 11/3 TD/INT ratio, but he’s been sacked 14 times. Western Kentucky only has six sacks in six games and boasts the nation’s worst run defense with six yards per carry allowed, so this should be a good matchup for Locke and the stable of backs. Even against non-power opponents, the Hilltoppers have allowed 6.33 YPC.
There will be some wind gusts early in the day in Huntsville, TX, but the wind is forecast to calm down as evening approaches. It looks like Phil Longo is starting to make some headway with the Bearkats offense and they’re the side that I like here in this game.
Other Wednesday Game
Kennesaw State (-3, 52.5) vs. Missouri State: CBS Sports Network has this 7:30 p.m. ET kick, as the Owls lay a road number against the Bears. It has been a rough season for the Bears, who lost head coach Ryan Beard to Coastal Carolina and hired SMU OC Casey Woods. Both UTEP transfer Skyler Locklear and Duke transfer Henry Belin IV have played the last two weeks, as the Bears search for a consistent spark.
The only wins for these two teams have come against FCS opponents – West Georgia in the season opener for Kennesaw State and Lindenwood in Week 2 for Missouri State. The Owls have two losses by four combined points over the last two weeks, including the conference opener against Jacksonville State last week. Missouri State lost by three scores to Western Kentucky after losing by 10 at SMU and six at home to Marshall.
Kennesaw State is the rightful favorite and the line seems about right. The Owls have better yards per play stats on offense and defense, but trusting them as a road favorite is a risk.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 7 games on our Pro Picks Page.
