Brewers vs. Dodgers
The NLCS is the only game in town on Wednesday night, as the Rays and Guardians head north to the Buckeye State. Yesterday was the travel day in this series, though both teams were able to make it back by late on Monday night, so Tuesday was all about some R&R for the Brewers and Dodgers. Milwaukee did what they needed to do in the games started by Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson and this is where things get interesting with Robert Gasser in Game 3 and Dustin May as the projected starter for Game 4.
Brewers vs. Dodgers (-180, 7.5) Prediction
8 p.m. ET (FOX/FS1)
The luxury that the Dodgers have over virtually everybody is that their starting rotation is arguably the best that money can buy. Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow will oppose Gasser and May or an opener, and this is why the Dodgers are not in panic mode after falling behind 2-0 in the series.
Snell is a nice safety net to have for Game 3, as he posted a 1.90 ERA with a 2.17 xERA and a 1.72 FIP over 42.2 innings of work during the regular season. He only made nine starts due to injury, as he started on May 9 and then missed the next three months, returning to allow just five total runs over his last eight outings. However, he was not sharp at all in the NLDS against the Braves, as he only worked 3.2 innings because of five walks that drove up his pitch count. He only allowed one run on three hits, but he needed 90 pitches to get just 11 outs.
Snell threw 47 strikes and 43 balls and that will be the key to the game for the Milwaukee offense. The Brewers led the league in BB% during the regular season and have drawn 11 walks in this series thus far. Milwaukee had 15 at bats with a runner in scoring position in Game 2, as their combination of patience and contact led to a lot of traffic on the basepaths. They even knocked Yoshinobu Yamamoto out of the game after just 2.2 innings because he had thrown 75 pitches.
I wouldn’t expect Snell to go long here. He could, if he’s pounding the strike zone here like he did last season in the NLCS when he threw 103 pitches, 69 for strikes, and struck out 10 over eight shutout innings with just one hit allowed. That’s the last time that the Brewers faced him. He then went on to have two poor starts in the World Series against the Blue Jays.
I’m actually surprised to not see Emmet Sheehan on the NLCS roster for a game like this, as Snell definitely has the chance to run up a high pitch count and Sheehan could’ve been a multi-inning guy from the opposite side to give the Brewers a different look, but he was not selected for the postseason roster. If Snell can’t work deep, it might come down to fellow lefty Justin Wrobleski to provide some length. That would not be an ideal spot for LA, as he had a 3.66 ERA during the regular season, but a 4.52 xERA and a 4.14 FIP.
This is obviously the biggest start of Gasser’s career, as the 27-year-old southpaw worked four respectable innings last series against the Brewers. He gave up a solo homer, but only three total hits and struck out three. Gasser had a 3.87 ERA with a 4.27 xERA and a 4.23 FIP over his 109.1 innings at the MLB level this season covering 20 starts and one relief effort. Compared to Misiorowski and Henderson, the left-hander is more of a kitchen sink, pitch-to-contact guy who mixes five pitches with 10% or higher usage rates on all of them. He only threw 56 pitches to get 12 outs in that NLDS start, so expect a quick hook here as well.
Both Dave Roberts and Pat Murphy will earn their wages managing this game in all likelihood. Murphy hasn’t used Trade Deadline acquisition Antonio Senzatela or swingmen Chad Patrick, Kyle Harrison, and Shane Drohan in this series, so he has multi-inning options if Gasser struggles. That’s not to say that any of those are awesome options, but Roberts is probably more of an inning-at-a-time guy here, unless he wants to push Wrobleski or Kris Bubic.
As a starting position, I do prefer the Brewers at the sizable plus-money price. The Dodgers should win this game, but this is about as difficult of a matchup as Snell could possibly see given how disciplined the Milwaukee offense is. The Brewers can also wreak havoc on the bases and Snell, despite being a lefty, has never really held runners all that well in his career.
I think Over 7.5 is also the way to look on the total, as it’ll be around 80 degrees at first pitch, with the 5 p.m. local start time in Chavez Ravine. The Dodgers should put a lot of balls in play off of Gasser and any of the middle relievers. Snell may have to dodge, duck, dip, dive, and dodge throughout this one. We’ll see if the Brewers can get the big hits when they need them, but I do think they’ll draw enough walks to have those opportunities.
This should be a great game to live bet from a side standpoint, which is why starting with Milwaukee at plus-money intrigues me. I’ll wait and see where the price goes, but I definitely like the chances of Over 7.5 now that the teams have seen most of the leverage relievers and we run the risk of some long relievers having to appear with this starting pitcher matchup.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-106)
