Duke vs. Virginia
Five games are on the docket for Friday, headlined by two ACC clashes, as Duke faces Virginia and NC State heads all the way out to Stanford. We certainly don’t want to overlook the non-conference UMass vs. UConn game, or the two games involving service academies, as Army heads to Tulsa and Air Force goes to Laramie to take on Wyoming. That leaves us with five very, very different games for October 23.
With the exception of the Huskies laying over two touchdowns against the freefalling Minutemen, all the other spreads are under a touchdown, so we could have a fun night in store. Duke vs. Virginia is the spotlight game for me, but the other four games will get some press as well.
Odds from Circa Sports as of October 21, 5:40 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 8 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Duke vs. Virginia (-2, 47) Prediction
Friday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Pick: Duke +2
Both teams are licking some wounds heading into this one, though Duke’s definitely run deeper. Teams never go into a game expecting to lose, but Virginia did have a tall task taking on SMU. The Blue Devils, however, lost at home in the rivalry game to North Carolina by a 24-20 count, dropping their second straight ACC affair. Conference titles and a CFP berth are always goals for teams coming into the season, but so is beating your archrival.
Speaking of rivals, this is a revenge game for the Cavaliers, who lost to Duke in overtime in the ACC Championship Game to miss out on the CFP. You know Tony Elliott hasn’t let his team forget that, even though this year’s version does have a lot of different personnel.
Manny Diaz has proven to be a good head coach in Durham, though, and he should have his team prepared to get back in the win column. Virginia’s strength of schedule is 10 spots higher than Duke’s per Jeff Sagarin, but the longtime numbers guru has Duke six spots higher than Virginia in his rankings, though the gap is just 1.43 points. While Diaz is a defensive mastermind and that’s typically the side of the ball with the better numbers, it’s Duke’s offense that has a big advantage here.
QB Walker Eget has only been sacked twice and has an 8/2 TD/INT ratio. Defenses haven’t been able to attack much because Nate Sheppard can burn them. His 138 carries are fifth in the nation and he’s averaged 5.9 yards per tote. On the whole, Duke has racked up 5.4 yards per carry. It should also be noted that Sheppard is the team’s leading receiver with 28 catches for 259 yards, so Eget and OC Jonathan Brewer are trying to get the team’s best player as many touches as possible.
It’s working, as Duke is in the top 50 in yards per play allowed, though they did gain a yard more per play in non-conference games than they have in three conference matchups. Virginia’s offense has sputtered down to 104th in the nation in yards per play this season. Replacing Chandler Morris and J’Mari Taylor has not been easy. Morris threw for 3,000 yards with a 16/9 TD/INT ratio and Taylor ran for 1,062 yards and had 14 rushing scores. So far, Beau Pribula has a 13/1 TD/INT ratio with a 65.4% completion rate, but none of the backs have been able to replicate Taylor’s production. Like Duke, Virginia’s offensive output has been much lower in ACC play, nearly two yards per play lower, in fact.
Defensively, the two teams are fairly equal, sitting 36th and 38th in yards per play allowed, with the Blue Devils holding an edge of 0.03 yards. Once again, though, both defenses fared better before stepping into conference play. Duke has allowed 5.28 YPP and Virginia 5.49.
Staying on schedule has helped Duke as well, as the Blue Devils are in the top 30 in third-down conversion rate. Virginia is 122nd in the nation, sitting below 33% overall and at just 25% in ACC games. The Blue Devils also boast a top-10 defense on third down. That would seem to be a sign of more success from their coordinators than Virginia’s.
Duke vs. Virginia Prediction
The Cavaliers have also struggled a bit while having a +5 TO margin and they’ve only turned the ball over three times this season. Duke only has five takeaways, but has protected the rock as well. Since I don’t expect a lot of turnovers here, it’ll be about the team that can execute long drives and convert in the red zone. The red zone has been a problem area for Duke, but I do think they’ll control the time of possession and limit big plays for Virginia’s offense. Even if they get 3s instead of 7s, I still like their chances.
Pick: Duke +2
Other Friday Games
UMass vs. UConn (-14.5, 50.5): The Minutemen were one of college football’s great stories early in the year, but injuries, including QB Pop Watson, have derailed what was a promising season. The Huskies are playing pretty well under first-year head coach Jason Candle, but he had a knack for losing as a favorite at Toledo. Maybe things are different now that he’s in Storrs, but he’s never been reliable as chalk and I’m shying away here with the other 7 p.m. ET kickoff.
Army vs. Tulsa (-1.5, 54): Army is getting it done in American Conference play again, heading into this game with a 3-1 record that includes wins over Tulane and FAU. Cale Hellums takes a hell of a lot of abuse, but he’s rushed for 5.6 yards per carry on 129 attempts. He has 13 of Army’s 25 rushing TDs. When he’s healthy, the Black Knights are certainly in better shape.
The same can be said for Tulsa QB Baylor Hayes. Hayes led a 26-25 upset of Army last season with a wild ending that included a failed onside kick, a turnover on downs, and a quick field goal drive. Tulsa just faced Navy’s option two games ago and then faced Rice’s option last time out, so they’ve seen a lot of running plays lately. Maybe that gives them a leg up, but Navy had 67 carries for 386 yards and won 34-26 despite four turnovers, including three fumbles. Lean Army here, but no official play.
Air Force (-4.5, 45) vs. Wyoming: The late games feature road favorites, as the Airmen take on the Cowboys with a 9 p.m. ET kick. Like many, I downgraded Air Force pretty heavily when it was announced that Liam Szarka was out for the season, but Evan Medders has been good in his place. He’s run for 7.2 yards per carry on 52 attempts and is just 16 yards behind Szarka, who had 92 attempts. The sophomore has 34 carries for 266 yards and five rushing scores in his last two games.
Wyoming throttled an awful Northern Illinois team last week to improve to 3-1 in conference play. But, QB Tyler Hughes still has a 3/7 TD/INT ratio. Fortunately, he’s done well running the ball with 5.2 yards per pop and a team-high five touchdowns. If any team knows how to spy a QB run, it’s Air Force, since the defense sees it all the time in practice. No wide receiver has more than 13 catches or 165 yards for Wyoming. The tight ends are over 200 yards, but there’s limited explosiveness to this offense. Air Force, meanwhile, seems to have some with Medders. Pick: Air Force -4.5
NC State (-6.5, 56) at Stanford: The late game in Palo Alto also draws an ESPN broadcast crew, as the Jekyll-and-Hyde Wolfpack take on the Cardinal. NC State beat Louisville earlier this season and then got pumped at home by Wake Forest. Dave Doeren’s crew is on extra rest here, which could prove to be a big deal with the long trek and time zone change.
Stanford should have had a controlled scrimmage last time out against Elon and the score is suggestive of that with a 34-7 win, but the Trees gave up 220 rushing yards and 6.5 yards per carry. If the Wolfpack take care of the ball, they should cover, as they’ve averaged 4.5 yards per carry and feature back Jayden Scott has 5.8 yards per pop. Plus, NC State has a running QB in Will Wilson who has had more ground success than CJ Bailey. But, it’s a long trek and this team is wildly inconsistent, so I’ll pass on laying the number.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 8 games on our Pro Picks Page.
