Rays vs. Brewers
Flags fly forever. For one of the two teams in the World Series, it will be their first flag/pennant that says World Series champion. The Rays have come up short twice in the Fall Classic and the Brewers have only appeared one other time, which was back in 1982 when they were in the AL East. The Rays, who were an expansion team for the 1998 season, lost in five games in 2008 and six games during the COVID-shortened 2020 season.
The nerves are sure to be there for all of the players, as not only do these teams not have World Series rings, but many of the players on those teams do not from their previous stops. It’ll be a loud, raucous, and incredible atmosphere inside at American Family Field and that should have both teams totally amped up and ready to go.
The Rays did take two of three from Cleveland on the road and also won Game 3 against the Yankees in the Bronx, but they were 55-26 at home and just 43-38 on the road in the regular season. The Brewers, who are 7-1 in the postseason and 4-0 at home, also greatly enjoyed the friendly confines by going 55-26. They were 48-33 on the road.
While this World Series is lacking star power, the circumstances surrounding the series are a lot of fun. As mentioned, we’ll have a first-time champ, but these are also two teams that have spent heavily and wisely on organization infrastructure and scouting. For those who think analytics are BS, this World Series is proof that they are not.
Rays vs. Brewers (-196, 6.5) World Series Game 1 Prediction
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (FOX)
With ample time to get things in order for the World Series, we thought we’d get a matchup of aces in Game 1. The Brewers will send out NL Cy Young Award winner Jacob Misiorowski, but the Rays will counter with Nick Martinez. The veteran right-hander and changeup artist was not needed for a second start in the ALCS, so this move gives Drew Rasmussen an extra day to gear up for the biggest start of his career.
Much like Rasmussen, Martinez is going to throw a lot of strikes, he’s just not nearly as overpowering. He had a 3.10 ERA with a 3.97 xERA and a 3.96 FIP over 31 starts during the regular season. He only struck out 109 batters for a 15.1% K%. However, he also only walked 26 batters for a 3.6% BB%. That is even slightly better than Rasmussen from a control standpoint.
So, he’s going to throw strikes and force the Brewers to hit their way on base. He’s a fastball/cutter/sinker/changeup guy primarily, with more reliance on the sinker and changeup than Rasmussen. Perhaps the Rays are thinking about how he’s a good bet to use here with a fresh bullpen. Martinez had well above average results on his cutter, sinker, and changeup, so I think we’ll see him almost exclusively rock with those three pitches.
Milwaukee was top five in Batting Runs per Statcast against four-seam fastballs, cutters, and changeups. They were about middle of the pack, but at -15.8 against sinkers. Martinez’s sinker could be a pretty good weapon in this game and you know Tampa crunched all the numbers before opting to put him in there over Rasmussen.
It would also take some pressure off of the offense if Misiorowski could be himself. The 24-year-old phenom had a 1.80 ERA with a 2.12 xERA and a 2.17 FIP over his 174.2 innings of work. He struck out 252 and only walked 44. However, in two postseason starts, he’s only managed to go 8.1 innings with three runs on nine hits and an 11/4 K/BB ratio. The Dodgers made him work because they make nearly every pitcher work. The Padres made him work by fouling off 30 pitches in his Game 1 start against them.
Miz has racked up 21 Whiffs in his two postseason starts and his under-the-hood numbers like spin rate look fine. That said he did start throwing 102 and then 101 against the Dodgers, but he was down to 99.3 and 99.2 by the fourth and fifth innings. That’s still stupid fast, but you absolutely have to wonder if the workload is catching up with him a bit. Last season, he threw 66 MLB innings in the regular season and 63.1 innings in Triple-A.
For all of the contact that the Rays made, finishing the regular season with the lowest K% in baseball, they did not hit four-seam fastballs well at all. This is a lineup where a few guys have good bat speed, but they’re a “bad ball” lineup. What I mean by that is this team loves to fight off tough pitches and hit them to the opposite field for hits. While they can be late on fastballs and do that, only the Braves and Rangers had fewer Batting Runs per Statcast on four-seamers than the Rays at -32.
The Rays were 27th in SLG at .397 and 15th in BA at .247 against fastballs. They had the fifth-lowest Whiff Rate at 19.7%. So, they did make a lot of contact, but didn’t really do a whole lot with it. If we look at a data set with fastballs of 97+ mph, the Rays were 11th in Whiff Rate at 25.6% and 24th in BA at .187. Misiorowski’s premier velocity could be a huge help to him here, as the Padres and Dodgers were top-10 offenses in that split.
Both bullpens are very well-rested here. What will be interesting to see is if Milwaukee’s relievers show any rust from the long layoff. I don’t think a layoff bothers either offense or the starting pitchers, but relievers are so accustomed to being used every day or every other day that not throwing meaningful innings with the adrenaline pumping makes the switch more difficult to flip.
Rays vs. Brewers Prediction
Based on how hard Misiorowski has had to work in these playoffs and how Martinez’s arsenal lines up here, I lean towards the Rays at +162. I don’t necessarily think that they win the game, but I do believe that this line is too big. The Brewers should win, especially if Miz can leverage all of Tampa Bay’s contact into working deeper into the game. But, if he struggles early, and he could, then we might be able to get the Brewers at a reduced price or maybe even plus-money if the deficit is that big.
I like Martinez, but he had a .309/.344/.470 slash against and a 5.15 ERA the third time through the order. That’s why Kevin Cash & Co. are sending him out there with a fresh pen. So, I do think Cash will be aggressive in mixing and matching his relievers, but that could also work in Milwaukee’s favor, so I’ll start with the Rays +162, but look for live betting opportunities to arise.
Pick: Rays +162
