Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Friday, October 23 racing card at Keeneland, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 10.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Flash of Freedom (10th Race)
Tenth Race
1. Flash of Freedom
2. Sesasi
3. Thesewallshaveears
FLASH OF FREEDOM has run on three sloppy tracks, including in her last two starts – fair to say she doesn’t like them. At Keeneland, racing over a fast track, she finished a solid second behind a filly who’s turned out to be pretty nice. Encouraging enough work video. SESASI was 40-1 on debut for trainer T Pletcher – weird. Steady inside run which was not bad at all, though it might’ve come in a softish race. Like her stretchout candidacy – though she did not seem to like working inside the talented 3yo Sassmaster in her KEE drill. Still waiting for THESEWALLSHAVEEARS to display the talent I guess she has – could it come with the stretch to two turns? Sprint comeback better than looks on paper.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other nine races on Friday’s Keeneland card.
First Race
1. Shapka
2. Boss’ Deed
3. Telecaster
SHAPKA debuted two back facing far, far stronger competition than this. Obviously overmatched and eased home through final furlong. From that dirt sprint to the IND turf route -better, but didn’t exactly scream turf horse. Now, third out, probably much more race fit than on debut, he gets the class relief he needs. The race is wide open if you’re not buying the big Baffert dropper (not). BOSS’ DEED just looks like an in-and-out horse – and he was out last time. At his best, he contends. TELECASTER’s lone chance is to speed off from an outside draw and establish a clear lead. Could work to some extent.
Second Race
1. Our Liberty Belle
2. Sweet Note
3. Final Shipman
OUR LIBERTY BELLE returns from a long layoff and returns to the Sharp barn, for whom she campaigned last year. Showed up fall ’25 at KEE in a route and couldn’t get up in time, and lone recent win came over 1 1/8 miles. Somewhat counterintuitively, I might like the mare more at this sprint trip – provided she gets at least a little pace. It’s a $20K starter, a 6yo, so what would one be expecting to see – but kind of liked the look of her recent work video. SWEET NOTE and FINAL SHIPMAN are the two pace players – Final Shipman seemingly a need-the-lead type. Sweet Note stalks/presses and gets past Final Shipman before Our Liberty Belle runs her down – or so I visualize the race.
Third Race
1. Maddy Mania
2. Kabin Eight
3. Clever One
MADDY MANIA one of three, along with KABIN EIGHT and Newhope, coming out of the same CD sprint. MM was caught wide, steered inside for the homestretch, made progress but did not want to go through a gap that opened at the furlong grounds. She finally did and, once in the clear, delivered quite the encouraging little burst. Wide draw in this one-mile, two-turn race (don’t like this configuration at all) makes things tougher. Kabin Eight will have an even worse post if she draws in. Shuffled back some in the early stages of debut, raced in traffic, finally got outside for the stretch run, was a little green and didn’t run straight – but there came Maddie flying past everyone on the gallop out. Added distance and benefit of a race pushes her forward. CLEVER ONE is the obvious favorite – I just doubt that even if she wins, she’s as superior as the odds are going to suggest.
Fourth Race
1. Break Out
2. Big to Do
3. Ghazaaly
BREAK OUT since switching from turf to dirt four races ago has run nothing but races that can win this $62.5K claimer. Long one-turn contests – that appears to be his bread and butter, and that’s what this race is. In for a perfect trip from outside post. BIG TO DO is mainly a guess – guessing that there’s some sort of dirt horse hidden inside a struggling turf horse. Ran in a few dirt races very early in his career – decent. “Classes up” adequately, and the big thing is I don’t care for the shorter prices. GHAZAALY for instance 8-5 on the line. Fine, good, sure – all the form is SoCal and he’s first out for a new trainer that, while twice a winner at this meet, has not been going very well this fall. Barn has a second runner also at not much of a price in TARANTINO, who won last time because Billal decided not to win at the last instant.
Fifth Race
1. Consolidated
2. Ghostwritten
3. Vitruvian Man
CONSOLIDATED beat lesser foes at KEE this spring but might be up to this tougher task. Came right back from the KEE score to win on the rise, then didn’t seem to get over the sloppy track very well before going on hiatus. Was too far back (perhaps for no good reason) and taken very wide past the 3f marker, spinning wheels upper stretch, showing a tiny spark at furlong grounds. He’s meant to improve upon that – price is right to find out of he’s good enough and can adapt to the short stretch. GHOSTWRITTEN might prove to have been a good $50K claim two back, and while he ran well for new connections going 7f, I like him better going to the lead in this two-turn test. VITRUVIAN MAN could be favored and on the surface looks good in this spot, but note that he’s already been defeated at this class level and in a SoCal N1X.
Sixth Race
1. Tarkanian
2. Justico
3. T V Time Out
Nothing wowed me or even came close in the work video department. As usual, the W Ward-trained first-timer is a tough read. TARKANIAN at least looks like he might be very fast – was too fast for his own good in one drill, trying to blow the turn while hard held. Suspect he’s good out of the gate and could make the lead from rail draw – though some concern he can last to the wire. One work video for JUSTICO shows him coming through homestretch on wrong lead – that’s not the end of the world generally, and the gate works at KEE start at an awkward spot at the end of the far turn, which can lead to lead-change issues. Work pattern is a little dicey – maybe not quite ready? T V TIME OUT back on short rest after mildly competitive showing early in the meet – I’d guess if he just runs that race he can get into the mix here.
Seventh Race
1. Fuzzbuster
2. Quick Pick
3. Brave Pilot
FUZZBUSTER even with a bad outside post is easily the most likely winner of a mundane N1X turf-route allowance – but first he has to get into the race from the AE list. Not a good trip two back at CNL, and while very competitive for huge money last out in KD stakes, it wasn’t just a case of a horse who gets over the KD course outrunning his standard-oval form. QUICK PICK got a perfect pocket trip beating maidens last out and now moves up to N1X allowance – supposed to be skeptical under those circumstances, but I really liked the way he finished. BRAVE PILOT a very impressive second-out dirt maiden winner. Mixed signals at best on the turf front.
Eighth Race
1. Miss Anna
2. Elewene
3. Angel of Kirk
MISS ANNA won well enough over 7f two back at Ellis that one can see her handling this very meh stakes crew at a 6f trip that also should suit her well enough. Didn’t quite stay the one-turn mile while running well last out in the Pocahontas. ELEWENE far above average for a restricted maiden winner two back – which she proved landing the N1X at CD. Well drawn outside to get the trip she needs. ANGEL OF KIRK obviously faced two far better foes than these in the Spinaway – yet, at the price, I wonder how much there is there.
Ninth Race
1. Sister Troienne
2. Define
3. Essential Lady
SISTER TROIENNE should have – really should have – won the Winter Memories. If nothing else, the tough-trip defeat showed she’s back on form after a needed rest. Won over the KEE course and with any luck ought to prevail at odds on here. DEFINE was a solid maiden winner but not the sort who one might imagine really contending in the G1 Del Mar Oaks – which she did not. Commonplace allowance group she beat last time, but this is a reasonable step up for an improving filly. ESSENTIAL LADY easily could improve upon a last-out comeback win at the N1X level, though I preferred Define’s performance.
Daily Racing Form is the most trusted source for horse racing news and information. Get an edge when you play the races with DRF.com.
Get more Daily Racing Form horse racing picks on a daily basis on our VSiN Horse Racing page.
Get DRF’s Complete Breeders’ Cup Betting Package with Past Performances, Expert Picks, Clocker Reports and more.
