As the season progresses the market is getting tighter. Evidence of that was presented by the market on Sunday. Only 12 games which opened at Circa Sports moved – either side or total – three or more points.

Conference play is in full swing. The data for each of these teams is growing, and so the ratings on these teams are becoming more static. At this point of the season, the only real impact on a spread will be an injury or information of some sort.

 

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This week, there are only a few games worth noting in terms of line moves. Even then, the ones discussed below have changes in staff – East Carolina and Utah – or some are just games the market thought were worth moving on or off a key number.

College Football Week 9 Odds Report

Louisville Cardinals at Boston College Eagles

Open: UL (-8, 56.5) | Current: UL (-6.5, 53.5)

Louisville has hit the skids. After a loss to the Hurricanes on Saturday, the Cardinals fell to 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four games. Louisville’s defense continues to present problems. The Cardinals are now 67th in defensive success rate and 95th in defensive success rate per dropback. The market took a piece of Boston College and drove this line under the key number to 6.5 at Circa Sports and DraftKings. The total was bet down three points as well. The Eagles’ offense has been sliding as the season has gone along. They now rank 73rd in offensive success rate and 69th in offensive EPA per play. BC has also been one of the best under plays in the country. It is 5-2 to the under thus far, and its games have gone under by 3.3 points per contest.

Temple Owls at East Carolina Pirates

Open: ECU (-6.5, 52.5) | Current: ECU (-7, 49)

East Carolina fired head coach Mike Houston on Sunday. Defensive coordinator Blake Harrell will serve as interim the rest of the season. Despite that news, those that shape the market pushed this line up to -8 before buyback on the underdog got us to the consensus line of -7 as of Monday morning. The Pirates have lost four of five and are 1-3-1 ATS in those contests. Meanwhile, the Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. The market has been very low on Temple – and for good reason – but perhaps we’ve been too low. Regardless, it does not seem to be changing its opinion of the Owls any time soon. It should also be noted that this total got to as low as 48 at Circa Sports before a bit of over money pushed it back up a point. ECU’s defense really regressed over the last four contests and three of their last four contests have flown over the total.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Navy Midshipmen

Open: ND (-14, 55.5) | Current: ND (-11.5, 52)

VSiN PrimeTime host Tim Murray posted the lookahead line for this game last week on X when Notre Dame was a 17-point favorite at DraftKings. The responses came pouring in in support of the Midshipmen, and it turns out those users were right to be skeptical of that line. Circa Sports opened the Irish as 14-point favorites on Sunday and the market jumped on the underdog. Lookahead lines are not always the most accurate, but it is fascinating to see the difference in the market a week after both teams won and covered. The total dropped like a rock to 52 consensus, which is not a surprise considering the amount of running we will likely see in this game.

Utah Utes at Houston Cougars

Open: UTAH (-6, 39.5) | Current: UTAH (-3.5, 36.5)

The changes continue for Utah which now has a new offensive coordinator after Andy Ludwig stepped down on Sunday. Isaac Wilson started in place of Rising once again on Saturday and the Utes struggled mightily. They totaled just 267 yards against a below average Horned Frogs defense. Wilson completed just 51.5% of his passes and averaged just 6.0 yards per attempt. Utah has been a dead under team. It heads into this week 6-1 to the under. Six of seven Houston contests have gone under the total as well.

New Mexico Lobos at Colorado State Rams

Open: CSU (-5, 61.5) | Current: CSU (-6, 65)

Last week I wrote about New Mexico’s contest with Utah State. The market had pushed the total from 71.5 to 80 at the open on Sunday before it fell back to 78.5 at the close. That contest went over 16.5 points. The Lobos are now 6-1 to the over and their contests are going over by 20.1 points per game. It would seem the market is all in on jumping on these totals each week, as this game was bet up from 61.5 to 65 on Sunday. This will be a good test though. Colorado State does not have Tory Horton and managed just 21 points and 15 first downs against Air Force over the weekend.


West Virginia Mountaineers at Arizona Wildcats

Open: AZ (-1, 55.5) | Current: AZ (-3, 55)

These have been two of the most disappointing programs this season by market standards. Arizona was blown out over the weekend by Colorado and fell to 1-6 ATS on the season. It has failed to cover by 12.8 points per game. West Virginia is now 2-5 ATS with a -3.7 spread differential after a lopsided loss to Kansas State. Interestingly, it was the Wildcats which the market decided to support on Sunday. Circa Sports opened this line at -1 but it quickly rose to the key number of -3 and that is the consensus number on Monday morning. The market has been too high on the Wildcats all season long. Is this another case of it overvaluing Brent Brennan’s squad?

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