Kennesaw State vs. FIU
If it feels like we’re never getting a break from handicapping football, that’s because we aren’t. We’re in the midst of 49 straight days with a football game. It started on Oct. 8 and will continue through Nov. 26 and we have Conference USA to thank for this incredible run. The Week 9 college football schedule kicks off with two C-USA tilts, with Kennesaw State vs. FIU and Western Kentucky vs. Louisiana Tech.
FIU and Western Kentucky played each other last week and the Panthers won outright as a 10-point dog. Both Louisiana Tech and Kennesaw State are on extra rest here, having last played on Oct. 9 against each other, so we’ll see if the additional prep time is a difference maker or not. It seems like it could be a factor, as both of those teams have been bet into bigger favorites.
I’ll look at Kennesaw State vs. FIU first, since that’s where my stronger opinion lies between the two games.
Odds from Circa Sports as of October 20, 1:45 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 9 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Kennesaw State (-3, 49.5) at FIU
Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Main ESPN has opted for a hockey doubleheader, while ESPN 2 carries college football. It’s also the start of the NBA season on NBC and Peacock – get our NBA Betting Guide now – so it’s a good night for sports. Well, it’s a busy night for sports, anyway.
Kennesaw State vs. FIU means more than most thought it would in terms of the C-USA standings. Liberty is playing down to competition again, as Jacksonville State (3-0) and Kennesaw State (2-0) are the only undefeated teams in league play. FIU knocked off Western Kentucky last week to deal the Hilltoppers their first conference loss of the campaign and improve to 1-1 after getting pummeled by Delaware a few weeks ago.
The Owls lost 10-9 to Wake Forest to open the season and got embarrassed by Indiana before starting up their four-game winning streak. The Panthers opened with a lopsided win over Bethune and have lost three of five to FBS teams, including a 34-0 loss to Penn State in a game James Franklin could actually win.
Statistically speaking, not much separates these teams on offense. The Owls have 5.6 yards per play and FIU has 5.41. The Panthers have 5.56 YPP against non-Power Four FBS opponents, while the Owls have 6.25. FIU’s strength of schedule is slightly higher, even with the growing gap between Indiana and Penn State.
Defensively, there is a gap between the two teams. Kennesaw State has allowed 5.42 YPP overall and 4.86 YPP against non-Power opponents. FIU has allowed 5.95 and over six yards per play to non-Power opponents. That’s a big reason why we’ve seen the line movement that we have here. Kennesaw has the rest advantage and the better defense.
Even though Dexter Williams II stepped in last game against Louisiana Tech with 290 passing yards and a 4/0 TD/INT ratio, head coach Jerry Mack said that Amari Odom is healthy and the plan is to start with him. Odom has been more effective on a per-carry basis and has also completed 71.6% of his passes compared to 55.7% for Williams. Even though Williams had a big game against the Bulldogs, this seems like the right call.
FIU is healthier at QB with Keyone Jenkins back after Joe Pesansky had to step in during the blowout loss to UConn. Jenkins started that game and left hurt, but played well against Western Kentucky, as did running back Kejon Owens with 195 yards on 22 carries. In FIU’s two FBS wins, Owens has 41 carries for 368 yards. Kennesaw State has allowed just under four yards per carry this season.
My Week 9 college football power ratings say that the wrong team is favored here, with FIU -1.5 by my numbers. There are 3.5s out there and, at time of writing, Circa was dealing +3 at +100. I’d rather have a +3.5 in pocket if you can find one, but I think FIU is showing some noteworthy improvement themselves and they’re the side for me at Mr. Worldwide Pitbull Stadium.
Pick: FIU +3
Other Tuesday Game
Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech (-3.5, 50): This 7:30 p.m. ET game gets CBS Sports Network treatment down in Ruston. Western Kentucky’s absolute no-show against FIU came out of nowhere last week. But, they had also played close games in wins over Missouri State and Delaware. Now they’re on the road again.
Similarly, though, Louisiana Tech’s no-show at Kennesaw State was just as perplexing. They had beaten New Mexico State, Southern Miss, and UTEP for a nice three-game winning streak. That said, the UTEP win was a bit misleading, as the Bulldogs only had 232 yards of offense and had two pick-sixes.
Even without DC Jeremiah Johnson, the Bulldogs are still a top-40 unit in yards per play. Not quite the No. 8 in the country that they were last season, but still strong. Western Kentucky is far worse on defense, but far and away better on offense. The Hilltoppers have played the 158th-ranked schedule in the country per Sagarin and LA Tech has played the 114th. So, we’ll see. I faded WKU in part because of their SOS last week and they lost outright. I don’t hate doing it again here against a rested Bulldogs bunch, but I prefer the FIU +3 to any bet here.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 8 games on our Pro Picks Page.
