Brewers vs. Rays
One more day of baseball and one more day of this compelling World Series isn’t a bad thing, unless you are a Brewers fan or backer. Will we only have one more day or will we be waiting on Game 6 on Friday? Milwaukee is sending out ace and NL Cy Young Award winner Jacob Misiorowski, while the Rays had not announced a starter yet as of early this morning. That leaves Miz and the Brewers a heavy favorite to finish off the gentleman’s sweep.
Brewers (-157, 6.5) vs. Rays World Series Game 5 Prediction
Wednesday, 8 p.m. ET
It was an uncharacteristic night for the Brewers with a chance to win the first World Series in franchise history. Two errors, only three at bats with a runner in scoring position, and a highly questionable managerial decision. The move to go to Shane Drohan in the 12th was partially out of necessity, but also a failed attempt to match up with the upcoming batters. Pat Murphy could have stuck with Antonio Senzatela after Junior Caminero reached on an error. Drohan came in, gave up four straight singles, two to right-handed batters, and that was all she wrote.
Despite the loss, the Brewers are in better shape for tonight’s game than the Rays. Tampa Bay’s starter options are an opener, try to push Steven Matz as far as he can go, or send out Drew Rasmussen on three days’ rest. Personally, that’s the best option to me, but this is a very tired bullpen. Not only did the Rays have some decent reliever usage in the series against Cleveland, but their relievers have thrown 338 pitches in this series, plus projected Game 5 starter Nick Martinez threw 33 pitches in Game 4. Tyler Wells and Cam Booser have each thrown three of the last four days. Ian Seymour threw 32 pitches yesterday. Bryan Baker had not completed two full innings all season until last night.
Meanwhile, the Brewers get to send out Misiorowski on full rest, as he pitched in Game 1 and had his best start of the postseason with five innings of one-run ball. He only struck out three, but also only walked one over his 78 pitches. Getting five innings from Miz would be huge, given that Aaron Ashby threw 31 pitches last night. He’s the only guy I’m really worried about in that pen because he’s had a long postseason.
If he is the option, Rasmussen looked a bit gassed in Game 2. He needed 89 pitches to get 11 outs and allowed three runs on six hits with four strikeouts and two walks. If he can’t give the Rays some length, they’ll likely turn to Matz, Garrett Cleavinger, or Cole Sulser, who threw 32 pitches and gave up a run on four hits in Game 3.
I do think the Brewers end the series tonight. A 3-0 lead gave them a bit of a buffer. While I think Murphy made two questionable decisions, first only using Trevor Megill for five pitches, and second, using Drohan, tonight should set up easier with Miz at the outset emptying the tank. I don’t love the -157 price tag, though.
One prop I do like is Misiorowski Over 15.5 Outs at +100. If there was ever a time to try and push him a little bit farther, it’s now. He may be used in relief in Game 7 if there is one, but this will be his last start of the season. Murphy knows the situation for his middle relievers, so if he can bypass them by trying to push Miz through six, or at least into the sixth, I think he’ll want to do that. He maintained his velocity well in Game 1 and guys are dragging a little bit right now. It’s hard to generate the necessary bat speed to get to Miz. The Brewers knew they needed him all postseason. They may not need him after tonight and that’s the time to get after it.
A lot of things went wrong for Milwaukee last night and a lot of guys were no-shows and the Rays still needed to walk it off in the 12th. If the moneyline price gets any better on the Brewers, I’ll probably take the leap.
Pick: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (+100)
