College Football Win Totals
Key Takeaways:
- 14 Overs, 15 Unders college football win totals bets from Steve Makinen
- Betting systems, trends all part of the analysis
- Coaching changes big factor with Unders
After reviewing the coaching changes, Stability Scores, transitional systems, recruiting rankings, and projecting the schedule using my power ratings, I’ve finalized my team season-win total bets that I will be making. At the conclusion of this piece are those wagers, with the odds available at DraftKings. You’ll see that, based upon the recent success I’ve enjoyed, I’ve again opted for more Unders than Overs this season.
Before revealing my 2025 plays, I’d like to remind readers of my success using my preparation methods over the last three years, specifically in releasing my season win total wagers. In 2022, I went 14-5-1, including 9-1 on Unders. That success led me to expand my plays to 30 in 2023. Those 30 bets wound up going 16-13-1 and I was again 10-4-1 on Unders. Finally, last year at this time, I picked 22 teams, going 12-10 overall, including 7-5 on Unders. Therefore, my overall three-year record is now 42-28-2 for 60%, highlighted by 26-10-1 (72.2%) on Unders. It seems pretty clear to me that I have become much better at identifying teams that are due for struggles. Hopefully, that changes this year, as the ratio is 14 Overs, 15 Unders.
Now, for my 2025 college football season win total wagers:
Projected OVER Teams
Alabama – OVER 9.5 wins
In my opinion, there was a lot of pressure on head coach Kalen DeBoer last season in his first year running the Alabama program. He was taking over for a legend, and he had QB Jalen Milroe plus 12 other starters back from the 12-2 team of 2023. In other words, expectations were still very high. After a hot start, Milroe cooled terribly, and the offense went from scoring 41.7 PPG in the first six games to 27 PPG in the final seven contests, and that includes the 52-point outburst vs. FCS Mercer. Clearly, the talent remains in Tuscaloosa, and now, with the talented Ty Simpson taking over at QB, the expectations and pressure will be somewhat lessened this season. The schedule is favorable, with only one real spot where it looks like ‘Bama will be a dog.
Arizona – OVER 4.5 wins
Some of the teams that made big conference transitions last year didn’t fare quite as well as others with the new conditions. Arizona was one of those, but to be fair, the program was also working with a new head coach in Brent Brennan. In 2023, QB Noah Fifita was a star, leading the Wildcats to a 10-3 mark. In 2024, he struggled in the new system and conference. In his junior season, I expect him to rebound to frosh form, and with the Big 12 being projected as a wide-open conference once again, I wouldn’t discount Arizona’s chances at being a “surprise” team this fall. With 16 starters back for 2025 and wiping the slate clean from terrible turnover luck in 2024, this team is already on better footing. I expect them back in a bowl game in December.
Arkansas State – OVER 5.5 wins
In head coach Butch Jones’ first season in Jonesboro, his Arkansas State team was 2-10. Since then, they have gone 3-9, 6-7, and finally, 8-5 last year. They culminated last season with a solid underdog win over Bowling Green in the 68 Ventures Bowl as well. Now, with a season win prop of 5.5 at DK, we are supposed to believe that this upward momentum is completely gone? Why? Did the Red Wolves lose all their starters? Are they working with a new QB? Is their coaching staff brand new? The answers to all of those questions are no. Quarterback Jaylen Raynor returns as a junior, and several teams on their 2025 slate seem “unstable” to me. I have a hard time seeing this team not in a bowl game again.
Auburn – OVER 7.5 wins
Last year, I wrote a lot of nice things about why Auburn would be better in year two under Hugh Freeze. I said this without truly believing whether or not former QB Payton Thorne had the stones or the talent to excel in the SEC. As the Tigers move on from him to potential stud Jackson Arnold, a former big-time recruit who had highlight moments at Oklahoma, I think the program and Freeze are in a position to better utilize their talents this fall. Freeze has recruited well, with back-to-back recruit/transfer combined rankings in the top 8 nationally. There are 14 other starters returning. The opener at Baylor is a huge one, but I think the talent is in place for a much-improved 2025 at Auburn.
Charlotte – OVER 2.5 wins
It’s very rare when I will back a team with a zero stability score to go over a season win prop. That said, Charlotte’s win total is ridiculously low for a program that has not been ridiculously bad lately. The 49ers were actually 5-7 last year under former head coach Biff Poggi, and they scored 23.7 PPG, a 6.2-point improvement from 2023. There are five starters back for Poggi’s replacement, Tim Albin, who I feel is a very strong hire for the program. Albin has plenty of Group of Five FBS experience, having served as Ohio’s head man for the last four seasons, where he was 33-19. Albin also adds a former Power Four QB from North Carolina in junior Conner Harrell, who has three starts under his belt.
Florida – OVER 7.5 wins
This is the second straight season I am taking Florida over its season win total prop, as I love the direction in which fourth-year head coach Billy Napier is taking the program. The Swamp is electric again, Napier is close to recruiting at Urban Meyer standards again, and there are 15 starters back from last year’s 8-5 team. One of those is, of course, star QB DJ Lagway. Yes, I realize the schedule is difficult; it always is at UF. However, the Gators have the talent, experience, and momentum to make things even more difficult for the teams playing them. This is a CFP contender if you ask me.
Florida State – OVER 6.5 wins
Can a 1-11 season be a “blip on the radar” for any program? We will find out for head coach Mike Norvell and Florida State, after he attempts to resuscitate the Seminoles following what was an abysmal 2024 campaign. He has 15 starters back from that team, which could be good or bad, I guess. However, if you read my recruiting rankings article about a month ago, you would have seen that FSU’s recent recruiting talent places it third in the projected ACC standings. If you’re worried about how a team that averaged just 15.4 PPG last season is going to get dramatically better, you can place your trust in transfer QB Thomas Castellanos out of Boston College, as he has been outwardly confident about his ability to lead his team back to the heights it reached in 2023. A 6.5-win prop after a 1-11 season should stand out to a savvy bettor. To me, it does. This team should be over .500 with the talent and coaching staff in place.
Illinois – OVER 7.5 wins
This is what I wrote about Illinois in my recent recruiting rankings piece: Fifth-year coach Bret Bielema brought in another solid Illinois recruiting class this spring, and it’s clear that he has established a new standard in that area where the program did struggle previously. The results are showing on the field, too, with the Illini coming off a 10-win campaign. With 19 starters back in 2025 and finally some big-game winning experience under its belt, why would this team be measurably worse? Systematically, of the 145 teams over the last 12 years that brought back at least six starters more than the prior season, only 47 got worse. The average improvement of the group that didn’t drop off was a winning percentage bump of 21.1% (+2.9 wins) and an ATS rise of 7.6%. I’ve seen some experts showing the Illini as a fringe CFP contender. That doesn’t happen at 7-5.
Michigan State – OVER 5.5 wins
In my offseason analysis of the recent season, I have found that experienced teams have shown a penchant for bouncing back. Coming off seasons in which they lost at least five games by 20 points or more, teams with at least 13 starters back since 2013 have wiped the slate clean enough to improve by 1.7 wins per season. This represents a 13.1% improvement outright and a jump of 15.6% ATS. There have been 120 such teams over the last decade-plus, and only 21 have gotten worse. One of the biggest improvements in wins from one season to the next you’ll find comes when nine or more offensive starters, including the quarterback, return from a team that won 33% or less of its games against the spread in the prior season. The average win increase is 13.5% SU and 24.5% ATS. These teams scored 5.4 PPG more as well and combined to go 52.1% ATS. Only nine of the 41 teams over the last 12 years got worse. If you’re wondering why I post all of this now, it applies to Michigan State this season. The Spartans won five games last year in head coach Jonathan Smith’s first season. Why would they not get even slightly better in year two with 15 starters back?
Mississippi State – OVER 3.5 wins
I hate to use a system that shows how inferior a team was the prior season as a reason to think they’ll be better this year, but as far as MSU is concerned, subpar teams that experience zero close wins in a season also tend to improve, particularly when they choose to stay the course. In fact, since 2013, there have been 70 teams that finished .500 or worse and had zero close wins of seven points or fewer in the prior season, then brought back their starting QB, at least 12 total starters, and their head coach. Of those, only six finished worse the next season. The average win bump was 2.7 per season, an 18.8% SU and 10% ATS surge. The SEC schedule is extremely tough, but being down on Arizona State a bit this year, I wouldn’t discount the Bulldogs and their 16 returning starters going 4-0 out of the gate before even touching the SEC. This offense improved a lot last season under QB Blake Shapen and first-year head coach Jeff Lebby. Both are back, meaning I expect continued improvement.
Purdue – OVER 2.5 wins
In this day and age of lighter non-conference slates in preparation for Big Ten play, it’s almost impossible to imagine a program like Purdue going 1-11 in a season. Especially considering the Boilermakers averaged 7.0 wins per season over the prior three years. When hitting rock bottom like this, it almost always makes sense to change coaches. Insert Barry Odom, who is making his third different head coaching stop and coming off a successful stint of reviving the UNLV program. The expectations are still rightfully low at Purdue despite the change to Odom this season. DraftKings has a win total set at 2.5, but there is a very good chance this team starts 2-0 with games versus Ball State and Southern Illinois to start the season. I’d be willing to take my chances that this team gets at least a win in conference play to surpass the total. This is not a perennial doormat-type program. Plus, in the “there’s nowhere to go but up category,” since 2013, there have been 63 teams that have won two or fewer games in a season while enduring a -0.8 or worse turnover ratio. Only 11 of those 63 teams did not improve, while 52 did. The average win improvement for the 52 teams was 3.2 per season. The SU win percentage upgrade was 24.5%, and the ATS improvement was a substantial 17.5%.
Texas Tech – OVER 8.5 wins
Head coach Joey McGuire has the Texas Tech recruiting efforts headed in the right direction, with each of the last four seasons under his watch bettering the prior year. At this rate, the Red Raiders figure to be a top 20-rated team consistently in the coming years so long as McGuire stays around. He also has the experience back this year that should make his team a contender for a Big 12 title, and hence, a CFP berth. There are 21 of 22 starters back from last year’s 8-5 team, including QB Behren Morton, now a senior. He led the Red Raiders to 37.6 PPG last season, over 10 PPG better than the prior year. With a full complement of starters back on defense, I would expect the mass improvement would come on that side of the ball this year. This would be one of my top picks to crash the CFP party this year.
USC – OVER 7.5 wins
Year 1 in the Big Ten presented challenges for USC, and I believe the unfamiliarity with having to travel to places such as Michigan, Minnesota, and Maryland, all losses by the way, doomed what otherwise could have been a nice season in 2024. This season offers a reboot for head coach Lincoln Riley and Co. after what was a learning process. Of course, close losses can be a galvanizing factor for teams that stay the course. In fact, of the 39 teams over the last 12 seasons that suffered 5+ close losses of 7 points or less and brought back their head coach and at least half of their starters (11+), only one finished worse the next season. The average win improvement was 2.8 per season, representing a 20.4% jump. A 2.8-win bump would put the Trojans at 8.8, easily good enough to pass the 7.5-prop. QB Jayden Maiava is back at QB, and he had some very big moments last year in part-time duty. Plus, 15 other starters return. I think USC takes a step or two forward this fall.
Virginia Tech – OVER 6.5 wins
There were some lofty expectations for Virginia Tech last year as they brought back the most experience in the country following a revival 7-6 season in 2023. I took the bait, hook, line, and sinker in posting the Hokies to pass their win total. I’m doing it again, but for different reasons, as I believe head coach Brent Pry and Co. won’t be consumed by all the preseason love they got a year ago. That evaporated quickly in a season-opening OT loss to Vanderbilt, one of several tight games they wound up on the short end of. Well, close losses can be a galvanizing factor for teams that stay the course. In fact, of the 39 teams over the last 12 seasons that suffered 5+ close losses of 7 points or less and brought back their head coach and at least half of their starters (11+), only one finished worse the next season. The average win improvement was 2.8 per season, representing a 20.4% jump.
Projected UNDER Teams
Appalachian State – UNDER 5.5 wins
Coming off its first sub-.500 season since 2013, Appalachian State welcomes in a new head coach in Dowell Loggains to try to recharge the program. With DraftKings setting the season win total at 5.5 after a 5-6 season, and considering that the Mountaineers, who have just seven starters back, hadn’t won fewer than six games since 2013 prior to last year, it seems that this program, which has dominated the Sun Belt for the last decade, is in the midst of a downturn, the downward side of a “mountain,” pardon the pun, one that peaked from 2015-21, a seven-year span in which the Mountaineers won 73 games. Any team with a stability score of zero gets at least my attention when it comes to Unders on season win total props. This one has a little higher total than others and is trending the wrong way.
Arizona State – UNDER 8.5 wins
This may turn a few heads because ASU made such a nice CFP run last year after shocking the college football world en route to the Big 12 title, but I have this strange feeling that 2024 may have been a lightning-in-a-bottle moment for the Sun Devils. Unfortunately, even after all that success last season, head coach Kenny Dillingham brought in a recruiting class this year ranked just 60th, ASU’s worst in 14 years. The recruiting standings projections for the Big 12 show the Sun Devils as a bottom-half team in the conference. This team also had a lot of turnover luck last season, and it can easily be argued that the teams that got the “luckiest” in the prior season were those that had the best turnover differentials combined with the smallest point differentials. It can also be predicted that these teams are due for a fall when “starting over.” Historically, that is the case, as only seven of the last 35 teams to have a TO differential of +1.0 or better and PPG differential of +12.0 or less went on to improve their winning percentage the next season. The rest declined by 3.1 wins per season, for an average percentage drop of 23.2% outright and 13.8% ATS. Collectively, they were 43% ATS. Finally, while ASU does bring back a lot of starters, it loses its heart and soul of 2024 with RB Cam Skattebo off to the NFL. Sometimes, looks can be deceiving. I expect this Sun Devils team not to live up to expectations.
BYU – UNDER 6.5 wins
So, even before the whole QB Jake Retzlaff situation unfolded this summer, BYU was still in a position to be fighting off this year-to-year transition system: There is a dangerous assumption made about teams bringing back a starting quarterback from what was an explosive unit to an otherwise relatively new offensive group. In fact, over the last 12 seasons, there were 52 teams that scored 30+ PPG the prior season and returned the starting QB but four or fewer other starters. Of those, 37 have declined by 3.3 wins per season on average (-20.2%) and by 5.7 PPG. The combined ATS winning percentage of the 37 teams was only 44.2%, clearly play-against teams. Now that Retzlaff has left the program, and with the timing and circumstances with which he had to, I think the Cougars could be in some trouble for 2025. Only eight total starters are back. Things sort of went their way last year. I see the opposite coming this season.
Buffalo – UNDER 7.5 wins
Former head coach Maurice Linguist recruited very well in his three years at Buffalo. His teams didn’t win on the field, however. The Bulls are looking for the exact opposite after new head coach Pete Lembo’s first two classes have cratered. After a 9-4 record in Lembo’s first year, I would have expected recruiting improvement this spring. With the loss of QB CJ Ogbonna since last year, this program will face a difficult transition angle in place. There have been 42 teams over the last 12 seasons that started a new quarterback after a season in which they finished with a .500 or better record despite suffering three or more losses of 20 points or more. Only six of those 42 teams finished with a better record the following season, with an average drop of 14.3%, or 2.4 wins per season. They also dropped by 5.4% ATS, collectively going just 46.8% ATS. I think new QB Ta’Quan Roberson will eventually fare well at Buffalo, but the Bulls only outscored teams by 1.0 PPG despite their 8-4 regular season record. I believe that is called overachieving. This year, they go back a step.
Fresno State – UNDER 6.5 wins
New head coach Matt Entz lowered the bar on recruiting for Fresno State this spring, bringing in a class ranked 106th in the country. Only one class in the last 12 years has been worse for the Bulldogs. As a sign of what type of talent is now coming in, FSU’s expected starting QB comes over from Temple, senior EJ Warner. In his two years starting for the Owls, they were 3-9 in back-to-back seasons. This program has produced prolific, top-level QBs at the position in recent years. That is the here and now. When long-time head coach Jeff Tedford was forced to step down with health concerns just prior to the 2024 season, he left behind a legacy of consistent if not prolific production from the offense. Only eight starters back in all. The season win prop is 6.5, with DK suggesting this team will be slightly better than last year’s 6-6 regular season mark. I don’t see it. Instability, lower-tier QB transferring in. I see the first season without a bowl bid in five years.
Jacksonville State – UNDER 6.5 wins
Former head coach Rich Rodriguez leaves this newer FBS program in great shape for replacement Charles Kelly, as very few programs that have transitioned lately to college football’s highest level can match the success that the Gamecocks have enjoyed the last two years. That said, it is only natural to expect a drop off in 2025, as Kelly has only three starters back on each side of the ball and will be changing schemes dramatically from what Rodriguez ran. Those JSU teams have been known for their tough-to-stop, versatile offense run attacks over the last two seasons. The offense will change significantly under Kelly and new OC Clint Trickett (Marshall). That leads to instability in itself. There will be a lot different for this program in 2025. The win prop is 6.5. That is more optimistic than I feel.
Marshall – UNDER 5.5 wins
I have written on several occasions since last December about how unfortunate the contract dispute between Marshall and former head coach Charles Huff was and what a shame it was that this program couldn’t keep things together after a 10-win, Sun Belt title season in 2024. But the Herd lost as much in the transfer portal as anyone, and new head coach Tony Gibson has just four starters back to show from last year’s strong team. In fact, there may not be another program this season that bears less resemblance to its 2024 self. The 2025 campaign starts as tough as it gets, with a trip to Georgia. Gibson also inherits a program that is struggling in the area of recruiting, a problem previously non-existent. If that weren’t a big enough hurdle, the Herd were already in a spot of having to combat a transition angle stating that teams typically drop when off of seasons in which they won 66.7% or more of their games against the spread and have six or fewer offensive starters returning, plus are breaking in a new quarterback. The 41 teams that have fit that bill over the last 12 seasons have dropped by an average of 16% outright (-2.5 wins), 19.6% ATS, and 5.1 PPG offensively. (The eight teams that added a new head coach plummeted by 27% and 4.0 wins per season, as Marshall does now).
Massachusetts – UNDER 3.5 wins
Mass instability is a crucial factor in looking for season win total Under wagers for me. UMass figures to fit that bill to a tee. There will be just seven starters back from last year’s 2-10 team, which if you’re an optimist, in some ways, could wind up being a good thing since eight wins in six seasons demand a house cleaning. If you think that moving to the MAC could help hasten the rebuilding efforts for new head coach Joe Harasymiak and the Minutemen, keep in mind that this program is just 8-56 over the last six seasons and already playing a light slate. They have only beaten 3.5 wins twice since 2011 (both 4-8 seasons), so the 3.5 number is too rich for my blood. Confidently, this will be one of my Under season win wagers.
Memphis – UNDER 8.5 wins
Sometimes things can look rosy on the outside, but if you dig under the hood a little bit, you can find cracks. Even the respected Phil Steele doesn’t expect a drop in Memphis’ prospects for 2025. Perhaps he doesn’t analyze some of the same transitional systems that I do, because there are several red flags that arise around head coach Ryan Silverfield’s team, despite the 11-2 record a year ago. First, there is a potential landmine system that has affected teams coming off a season in which they enjoyed a positive 1.0 or better turnover differential but are now starting fresh at quarterback. The 35 most recent teams that have fit this bill have dropped by 2.9 wins per season in the next campaign, representing a 20.7% plunge outright and 13.2% dip ATS. While transfer Brendon Lewis was a starter at Nevada, he wasn’t exactly leading a high-level team. Second, it can easily be argued that the teams that got the “luckiest” in the prior season were those that had the best turnover differentials combined with the smallest point differentials. It can also be predicted that these teams are due for a fall when “starting over.” Historically, that is the case, as only seven of the last 35 teams to have a TO differential of +1.0 or better and PPG differential of +12.0 or less went on to improve their winning percentage the next season. The rest declined by 3.1 wins per season, for an average percentage drop of 23.2% outright and 13.8% ATS. Collectively, they were 43% ATS. And finally, not being tested by close losses can be a warning signal for inexperienced teams on the verge of dropping. There have been 43 teams over the last 12 seasons that lost four games or fewer, none in close loss fashion (7 points or less), and brought back only 12 starters or fewer. Of these, only five teams won more games the next season, with the average win drop being 2.8 per season, a 20.4% SU slide accompanied by a 10.8% ATS drop. All of this, with just eight starters back, would suggest a 7-8 win ceiling for the Tigers.
New Mexico – UNDER 3.5 wins
It was a short stay for Bronco Mendenhall at New Mexico, unfortunate since he led the Lobos to a 5-7 record in 2024, the program’s best mark since 2016. The Lobos will turn to Jason Eck, who has made six different stops at FCS schools over the last 15 years, and he will look to keep the momentum going from the one season under Mendenhall. However, it’s never easy for a program when an abrupt, unexpected change like this occurs. New Mexico football was “back” last season after a miserable run of seven straight years winning four games or fewer. Now, with just seven starters back, the Lobos are again generally picked as the worst team in the MWC, and Eck will have his hands full. I don’t have the stats handy, but I can’t imagine programs that continually struggle and having three coaches in three years being a winning recipe.
Ohio – UNDER 7.5 wins
Former head coach Tim Albin has left for the “greener pastures” at Charlotte. The new coach will be Brian Smith, who led the Bobcats to a sixth straight bowl game win in the interim role following Albin’s departure in December. Smith had his hands in a lot of what was going on already in Athens, having served as assistant head coach and offensive coordinator since 2022, so this should be a relatively smooth transition. However, despite the modest changeover, the DK oddsmakers put Ohio’s season win prop at 7.5, which would still be a 1.5-win drop from last year’s MAC title season. Perhaps they know that there have been 19 teams over the last 12 seasons that have recorded 6+ blowout wins of 20 points or more in a season, then had to change head coaches for one reason or another. Only two of the 19 teams got better the next season, and collectively, they dropped by an average of 17.7%, or 2.7 wins per season, as well as 18.5% ATS. As a group, they were 47.4% ATS. Michigan qualified on this angle last year and dropped by seven wins! Plus, not being tested by close losses can be a warning signal for inexperienced teams on the verge of dropping. There have been 43 teams over the last 12 seasons that lost four games or fewer, none in close loss fashion (7 points or less), and brought back only 12 starters or fewer. Of these, only five teams won more games the next season, with the average win drop being 2.8 per season, a 20.4% SU slide accompanied by a 10.8% ATS drop. Ohio qualifies for some significant decline systems, loses a lot of experience, and has a new coach. That usually gets my vote for Under on a season win prop.
Rice – UNDER 3.5 wins
Former Rice head coach Mike Bloomgren was in charge for seven full seasons despite not finishing with a winning record even a single time in that stretch. Perhaps a change was in order. The Owls now turn to Scott Abell, who gets a first FBS look. He runs an option offense, so expect a completely new look for Rice in 2025. With that in mind, this situation will represent one of the biggest changes in the country in terms of systems. To be frank, it’s difficult to imagine a situation where it’s successful, as only seven starters are back, and everyone is left to learn new football. When even teams like Army and Navy are discussing the possibility of abandoning their famous option attacks, this program chose to go in the opposite direction. Additionally, Abell’s Davidson teams made the FCS playoffs three times but never achieved a better record than 8-3, and they finished 6-4 last year. To be perfectly honest, I’m not a fan of this transition. The AAC is tougher than most people realize. I’m going Under 3.5.
Sam Houston State – UNDER 4.5 wins
Living in the state of Wisconsin, I can tell you firsthand that there are not many fans of the Badgers who will speak highly of what Phil Longo and his Air Raid offense accomplished in his short stint there under head coach Luke Fickell. After being relieved of his duties, he was still able to land a head coaching spot for this season, taking over a Sam Houston State team that won 10 games a year ago under KC Keeler, who elected to take the job at Temple.
In truth, Longo’s situation at SHSU is probably better than a lot of new head coaches are inheriting this season. He gets the team’s starting QB back in senior Hunter Watson, and Longo believes he will be the answer for the Bearkats’ version of the Air Raid. There are seven other starters back as well from a 10-win team. Even still, prognosticators still project this program as a bottom-third team in the weak Conference USA this season, and the win total is a meager 4.5. When in doubt, trust the experts behind the counter.
Syracuse – UNDER 5.5 wins
Syracuse played some extremely exciting and nail-biting games en route to a 10-3 finish last year for first-year head coach Fran Brown. That said, close wins are often characterized as getting “lucky” over the course of a season. Teams that have a lot of them and then come back inexperienced are naturally expected to drop. Over the last 12 seasons, 69 teams brought back 14 starters or fewer and had a new QB from a team that was fortunate to get four or more close wins of seven points or fewer in the prior season. Only nine of these teams finished better the next season, with the average win drop being 2.6 per season, a 16.1% plunge. Now, even a 2.6 win drop would still have Syracuse at 6.4 wins off of last year’s 9-3 regular season. You must, however, consider how much this team leaned on QB Kyle McCord last year. He threw 34 TDs and attempted 592 passes. The Orange actually passed 65.7% of their plays offensively. McCord is off to the NFL now, and Brown brings in Notre Dame transfer Steve Angeli, but with just eight starters back, matching last year’s success seems quite unrealistic.
Washington State – UNDER 5.5 wins
There has to be some real concern with Washington State football right now, as not only have the Cougars been left without a conference, but the impacts on recruiting have been felt with three straight poorly-rated classes. Departed head coach Jake Dickert clearly knew what he was doing in leaving. I love finding situations like this, as leaving Wazzu for a struggling Wake Forest program should certainly raise some eyebrows among savvy bettors. Unfortunately, the situation here has become one that probably only a first-time FBS head coach would be happy to take on. Having no pure conference affiliation is a difficult one to manage. It’s unrealistic to think that top recruits will embrace Pullman, WA. Enter Jimmy Rogers, who comes to Wazzu after a very successful run at various positions at South Dakota State. He only gets eight starters back, and his program is carrying the negative momentum of a 52-35 Holiday Bowl loss to Syracuse, a game in which it was almost questionable as to whether the Cougars would have enough rostered to play. The schedule is no longer Pac-12 tough, but still, matching the lowered 5.5-win prop seems unlikely.
