Colorado State Rams:
Colorado State was a dark horse candidate to win the Mountain West last season, but the team failed to meet that expectation. This season, Jay Norvell has 14 starters back, including quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi. Perhaps expectations for this program were a year too early, as the Rams look primed to be a nuisance in the Mountain West this season.
Offense
Fowler-Nicolosi is one of the better returning starters in the conference, but he does have some flaws. The redshirt sophomore threw for 3,446 yards and 22 touchdowns last season. However, he committed a turnover-worthy play on 5% of his pass attempts. That was third-most among qualified signal-callers in the Mountain West.
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Tory Horton returns at wide receiver for Colorado State, giving the Rams one of the best skill position players in the conference. Horton – a highly projected NFL prospect – led the Mountain West in receptions (96) and had the second-highest PFF receiving grade among wide receivers (86.9). Three of the top four rushers return as well.
Colorado State finished 74th in EPA per play and 120th in EPA per rush last season. The continuity at each skill position should help this group climb the offensive rankings. However, if Fowler-Nicolosi does not limit his penchant for putting the ball in danger this could be a poorer offensive season than anticipated.
Defense
Seven starters are back on this side of the ball as well, but the talent that departs is massive for the Rams. The defensive line is essentially being rebuilt. Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year Mohamed Kamara and Second Team All-Mountain West defensive tackle Grady Kelly are gone. So, too, is starter Tony Pierce. Even with that talent up front, Colorado State finished 91st in EPA per rush on defense last season.
In the defensive backfield the Rams bring back two All-Conference players in Jack Howell and Henry Blackburn. That was the strength of this unit, as they finished the highest in EPA metrics in both opponent dropback and early downs. Howell and Blackburn combined for four pass breakups and four interceptions last season. They should be the backbone of this group again.
Outlook
Colorado State saw its odds to win the Mountain West grow rapidly in the offseason last year due to sharp support. That same hunger does not seem to be there, but this group should be better than the five-win team from 2023. The Rams do draw some challenging road trips to Texas, Oregon State, Air Force and Fresno State this season. But, they avoid Boise State and UNLV on the conference schedule. Can they find themselves on the right side of most of the coin flip spots on this schedule? If Fowler-Nicolosi does not improve, it’s hard to believe they will, especially when laying a price.
Pick: Under 6 Wins
