Conference USA
This originally appeared in our 2025 VSiN College Football Betting Guide released on Tuesday, August 5. Become a VSiN Pro Subscriber and get our betting guides as part of your subscription.
When I think about Conference USA, I think about going to a Vegas buffet. No, not one like Bacchanal at Caesars or The Buffet at Wynn. Maybe more like if Luxor or Harrah’s still had one. Maybe Casino Royale, though that seems a tad harsh.
In any event, Conference USA is like having a plate of random food, most of it lukewarm, but it does the job. This conference got completely picked apart by the AAC, which added Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, Rice, UAB, and UTSA a few seasons ago. Now, it seems like the only open door for teams transitioning from FCS to FBS, as Jacksonville State, Sam Houston State, and Kennesaw State have all made the leap via Conference USA.
As it turns out, there are two more new teams this season, as Delaware and Missouri State have given us 136 FBS teams for 2025. Neither of them is eligible to win the conference during their transitional phase, so you won’t see them listed among the futures odds.
I may be overly critical of this conference, but it did rank 12th in terms of divisions by mean rating for Jeff Sagarin last season, as he did separate the Sun Belt into East and West and also the Independents were their own category. But, the average rating for C-USA teams was lower than that of the Missouri Valley Conference and just a few points above the Big Sky.
As mentioned, there were 134 FBS teams last season. Per Sagarin, five of the 10 teams in C-USA ranked 135th or worse. Jacksonville State, who has to replace head coach Rich Rodriguez and pretty much the entire roster, was the only team in the top 100 (78th). Sam Houston State, who ranked second at 106th, also has to replace a head coach, as K.C. Keeler went to Temple. Speaking of coaches, Louisiana Tech’s Sonny Cumbie has the hottest seat in America entering this season.
But, this is a conference you do want to familiarize yourself with because they have Tuesday and Wednesday games in October to get some ESPN exposure, so you’ll be seeing a lot more of them than you might like.
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Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens
Delaware makes the leap from the CAA to C-USA, as the Fightin’ Blue Hens sail into uncharted waters for the first time. Their FBS transition means that they will be ineligible to win the conference title this season and cannot make a bowl game. Ryan Carty’s team also got stripped of the chance to make a third straight FCS Playoffs appearance, as the Division I-AA bylaws prevent teams making the move to FBS to be postseason-eligible in their final year.
Carty, who played QB at Delaware from 2002-06 and was followed by some guy named Joe Flacco, went 26-11 in three seasons with the Blue Hens prior to this move. He brings a lot of returnees for this year’s roster, but there will be challenges and growing pains, particularly with the larger number of scholarships available at the FBS level that often leaves transitioning teams a bit depth-shy at the outset.
Offense
At least Carty has two solid, experienced quarterbacks to rely on. Zach Marker had a 10/0 TD/INT ratio and threw for over 1,000 yards before suffering a season-ending injury four starts into the year after incumbent starter Ryan O’Connor suffered one three starts into the season. Nick Minicucci took over for the final four games and hung a 10/3 TD/INT ratio. So, Carty has two viable QBs to go to this season and also an enticing UCF transfer in Riley Trujillo.
Carty was the OC at Sam Houston State with K.C. Keeler, who was the head coach at Delaware from 2002-12, so if you watched Bearkats football after their move to FBS, you’ll see a lot of similar concepts. In two FBS seasons, the Bearkats have scored 20.0 and 23.8 PPG with 4.6 and 5.0 yards per play. Keeler didn’t bring as much returning talent and production into his first season as Carty does, though the Blue Hens do have to replace their leading rusher and receiver.
Defense
The level of competition is absolutely increasing, but DC Manny Rojas has had a fine unit more often than not in his six seasons leading that side of the ball. Delaware allowed 21 PPG last season and just 5.3 YPP, including 3.4 yards per carry. He returns a lot of production here and this was a defense that rotated a lot of guys, as only one player had more than 44 tackles. That said, this is not a pressure-heavy defense, with a top mark of 28 sacks in the Rojas years, and a few seasons with 20 or fewer.
C-USA is not a prolific offensive conference by any means, but the battles in the trenches become much more difficult from one level to the next. The defensive line is Delaware’s greatest area of concern with a base 3-3-5 unit. Stuffing the run has been a strength with linebackers and safeties free to make plays, but that may change at this level.
Outlook
Delaware plays seven straight games to end the season, with four of them on the road. With the two byes grouped close together and obvious depth concerns, this is a team likely to run out of gas late in the year. You’re paying a heavy price on Under 5.5, but it’s probably worth it.
Pick: Under 5.5 Wins
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Florida International Panthers
Another reset at FIU for a program that hasn’t had a winning season since 2018. This time, Willie Simmons, who was most recently Duke’s running backs coach, will be at the helm. He was the head coach at Florida A&M from 2018-23, so he has experience in that role and experience looking for diamonds deep in the Sunshine State rough, which is what the Panthers have to target from a recruiting standpoint.
Of course, Pitbull’s name is on the stadium, so maybe Mr. Worldwide, who is paying $1.2 million annually for the naming rights, will be funding a better product with all of the NIL money floating around these days. If so, we don’t really see it this season, as FIU has brought in some transfers, but not many high-profile ones. After a trio of 4-8 seasons under Mike MacIntyre, expectations remain very low.
Offense
With over 48,000 students and one of the five highest enrollments in the nation, it really is surprising that FIU hasn’t been able to find virtually any success. Butch Davis had some for a couple years, but when the administration sat on their wallets, the program fell into disrepair. We’ll see if Simmons, who was successful at both Florida A&M and Prairie View A&M, can change the culture and reputation of the Panthers program.
Keyone Jenkins had a solid 22/8 TD/INT ratio, so Simmons, a QB at Clemson and The Citadel, has a good building block at the most important position. Most everything else on offense is brand new. The top returning receiver had seven catches last season. The offensive line is totally rebuilt and I don’t see senior Kejon Owens holding on to the starting role at running back. This is a big job for OC Nick Coleman, who was at UAB with Bryant Vincent, who is a good offensive mind.
Defense
Even though FIU went just 4-8 last season, this was a very competitive defense for DC Jovan Dewitt. Dewitt was actually one of the coaches kept from the MacIntyre regime, as his unit only allowed 5.2 yards per play and 25.8 PPG. The Panthers were actually a top-50 defense in yards per play and 11th in the nation in third-down defense.
Unfortunately for Dewitt, he has to mostly start from scratch. The top nine tacklers, including Travion Barnes (129) and four others who had at least 79 tackles, are all gone. Some transfers in the secondary could help offset the losses, but this looks like a FIU defense that is going to probably drop off a bit this season.
Outlook
While the schedule isn’t terribly daunting, bowl eligibility for the first time since 2019 is a very lofty goal from the oddsmakers and the betting market. I simply can’t see it. The defense was last season’s strength and that looks likely to regress. The offense is learning a new scheme and is missing proven pass catchers.
Pick: Under 5.5 Wins
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Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Persistence certainly paid off for new Jacksonville State head coach Charles Kelly, who actually started his professional career with the Gamecocks back in 1994 as the running backs coach. Interestingly, he was the defensive backs coach the next year, the offensive coordinator the season after that, and never coached offense again. Kelly’s career comes full circle now with his first chance to be a head coach, succeeding Rich Rodriguez, who went back to West Virginia.
Jacksonville State joined the FBS ranks in 2023 and has been a major surprise, posting an 18-9 record and a first-year bowl victory under RichRod. But, with RichRod gone and most of the roster with him, either due to transfers or graduation, it looks like the Gamecocks will undergo a pretty major rebuild for at least this season, if not more.
Offense
To say that the losses on offense are heavy is an understatement. Dual-threat QB Tyler Huff had 29 total touchdowns, with 15 on the ground and 14 through the air. In total, he racked up nearly 4,000 yards. Tre Stewart had 25 rushing touchdowns, trailing only Bryson Daily and Ashton Jeanty. He was also fifth in the nation in rushing yards behind Jeanty, Cam Skattebo, Omarion Hampton, and Daily.
Not only will the personnel be overhauled, but so will the offensive scheme, as Clint Trickett is now the OC and we may see a lot more passing plays. The Gamecocks were third in the nation in rushing plays behind two service academies. Kentucky transfer Gavin Wimsatt, who was the 25th-ranked QB in his class, got a ton of Power Five offers, but hasn’t really latched on anywhere.
Defense
Even though Jacksonville State had 646 running plays, they had explosive plays and played with tempo, so they were actually 126th in the nation in time of possession and that left the defense on the field a lot. The Gamecocks faced the fourth-most plays against and all of the teams that faced more played 16 games to Jacksonville State’s 14. So, what this defense was able to do being on the field a ton was really impressive, as they allowed just over 26 PPG and 5.6 yards per play.
That was, however, an increase of nearly 5 PPG and nearly a full yard per play from 2023, so the effects of being a somewhat undermanned FBS newcomer were on display in Year 2, along with only four returning starters. This defense brings back even less of last season’s production. Two 100+ tacklers are gone, along with virtually all of last season’s 25 sacks.
Outlook
The early success has spoiled the fans and the school, but 2025 is going to be a rough year. Conference USA isn’t good on the whole, so Jacksonville State could find a few wins with the weak schedule, but this is a brand-new team with an unproven head coach. The vig is very heavy on Under 6.5, but that’s the side to take and if alternate season win totals open up, I’d even consider Under as low as 4.5.
Pick: Under 6.5 Wins
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Kennesaw State Owls
The first season as a FBS member was not a fun one for Kennesaw State. The team went 2-10, but the wins and losses became a secondary story. That’s because after leading the transition to FBS, head coach Brian Bohannon was fired. While the school claimed that Bohannon resigned, the program was thrown into a major state of flux. It’s hard to know exactly what happened, but the Owls were an underdog in all 12 games and somehow beat Liberty as a 26-point pup.
Before moving to Conference USA, Kennesaw State was running the option under Bohannon. They changed that approach in 2023 and went just 3-6 and then last year’s 2-10, so maybe the athletic department and the school administration were upset with that change, but Jerry Mack and OC Mitch Militello aren’t going to run the option. In fact, this could be a major departure from what they’ve been doing.
Offense
Militello is a Josh Heupel disciple, so we should see a lot more tempo from Kennesaw State this season. With three transfer quarterbacks – Dexter Williams (Georgia Southern), Tommy Ulatowski (Kent State), and Amari Odom (Wofford) – we could see a timeshare or a “hot hand” approach at the position. The offense with the previous regime was very weak, averaging just 16.5 PPG and 4.02 yards per play. That was the lowest YPP in the nation and the sixth-lowest PPG.
Maybe that’s what ultimately got Bohannon fired. Either way, there are a lot of new faces here, which is fine because it is a completely new install on offense and returning production is an oxymoron when there really was no production. That said, Williams is the only sort of impact transfer after originally going to Indiana. Even though there are a lot of upperclassmen on the offense, there aren’t a lot of game reps or statistics.
Defense
The defense actually does boast a good amount of returning production, as six of the top seven tacklers are back in the mix. This wasn’t a stout defense by any means, with over 31 PPG allowed and over six yards per play. But, it does help to have some players back in the mix because the offense might have a lot of three-and-outs. Improving in the red zone will be key, as opponents scored a touchdown on nearly 70% of their red-zone trips.
DC Marc Mattioli has mostly coached defensive backs and that was a position of emphasis in the transfer portal. I actually think this defense could be pretty decent, even if the stats don’t show it because they are likely to be on the field a lot. This side of the ball does appear to be well ahead of the offense, especially with the idea of installing a Heupel-esque playbook.
Outlook
Kennesaw State was outscored by an average of 32-19 in C-USA play last season and their wins over Liberty and FIU were by four combined points. They even lost by double-digits to UT Martin. Kennesaw State doesn’t get Sam Houston State or Delaware on the schedule and three of the last four games are on the road. I don’t see this team improving by two wins.
Pick: Under 3.5 Wins
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Liberty Flames
After a 13-1 showing in his first season in Lynchburg, Virginia, the belief was that Jamey Chadwell’s team would run the table and could actually be in the discussion for the College Football Playoff spot. Well, Liberty went 8-4, losing as a 26-point favorite to Kennesaw State for their first loss of the season. Something felt off about this team from the jump, as they barely beat New Mexico State as a 22.5-point favorite in their first conference game and also needed overtime to beat FIU as 17.5-point chalk.
But, I think Liberty will get back to their more dominant ways this season. Chadwell inherited a special player in Kaidon Salter, but maybe not one that fit his offense overly well. In his third season, I can’t help but think that Chadwell now has the personnel that he wants.
Offense
Among that personnel is former Coastal Carolina QB Ethan Vasko. Vasko was recruited while Chadwell was the head man of the Chanticleers, so this is a pretty obvious fit. Salter actually had a really underwhelming season last year with a 15/6 TD/INT ratio and 587 yards on the ground with seven rushing touchdowns. Liberty ran the ball more than 65% of the time last season. That’s not how Chadwell’s offenses operated at Coastal, and frankly, I don’t think that’s how he wants this offense to run.
So, Vasko’s presence should turn the Flames into a much more balanced team, if not one that swings more on the pass-happy side. The team’s leader in receptions and yards is gone, but Treon Sibley led with 28 catches for 510 yards. All of the others are back and most are now in Year 2 or Year 3 of this offense. With nearly 2,000 rushing yards and 18 rushing touchdowns out the door, Chadwell needs to find a back, but I think that gives even more incentive to pass the ball.
Defense
There are a lot of returnees on defense, which is a good thing for Liberty in this day and age. Usually, the better Group of Five teams become a department store for the Power Four schools looking to fill holes, but Chadwell has three of his top five tacklers back, including leading tackler Joseph Carter. In Chadwell’s two seasons, the Flames have allowed 24.3 and 23.5 points per game and 5.7 and 5.4 yards per play.
That being said, the Flames had 45 sacks back in 2022 during Hugh Freeze’s final season. The Flames have 45 sacks over the last two seasons. Furthermore, in a really bad offensive conference, the Flames only forced 13 turnovers in eight games and only had 15 for the season as a whole. Somebody will have to step up and be more of a playmaker this year.
Outlook
Personally, I think Liberty should be the odds-on favorite to win Conference USA, not a plus-money price. The vig on Over 8.5 wins is steep, but I firmly believe this team gets 10+ wins during the regular season. The second favorite in the conference is Western Kentucky and Liberty would only play them if they meet in the conference title game.
Pick: Over 8.5 Wins
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Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
As if life wasn’t hard enough for Louisiana Tech, the Bulldogs head into this season with a coach in Sonny Cumbie who has third-degree burns on his backside, and it will be the program’s last season in Conference USA. A move to the Sun Belt is coming soon and that is a significantly better football conference than C-USA, so a program that got gifted a bowl game appearance last season, but hasn’t had a winning season since 2019, is up against it.
Even though it’s Cumbie on the hot seat, Jeremiah Johnson was the most important coach on the sidelines last season, as his defense bailed out an atrocious offense enough to win five games and break a string of three straight 3-9 seasons. Cumbie will need something similar out of DC Luke Olson, who was most recently the DC at Jacksonville State.
Offense
What’s weird about the offense being so bad is that Cumbie is, and has always been, an offensive-minded coach. The 43-year-old Cumbie played at Texas Tech and threw for 4,742 yards in 2004 to lead the nation. He is a Mike Leach disciple and a big believer in the Air Raid offense. After Cumbie’s playing days were over, he was a GA at Texas Tech and then an assistant coach, OC, and even interim HC after seven seasons at TCU.
At LA Tech, though, Cumbie is just 11-26 overall and last year’s offense had 20.9 PPG, just 4.8 YPP, and allowed 42 sacks. On the plus side, Evan Bullock had a 66% completion rate and a 14/3 TD/INT ratio once he took over. So maybe Cumbie finally has his QB. Tru Edwards, who accounted for 33.1% of the team’s receptions and 34% of the receiving yards, is gone, so that’s a big loss, but this style of offense will allow someone to step up.
Defense
Johnson excelled in his first year as DC after a quick stop at Kent State following a stellar tenure at Northern Iowa. Last year’s defense allowed just 21 PPG and 4.7 YPP, an improvement of 12.4 PPG and 1.4 YPP over what the team did in 2023. The Bulldogs went from 107th in YPP to a top-10 ranking and from 117th in PPG to 26th. No defense in the nation improved more.
Olson now has a rebuilt unit with only three returning starters. What’s surprising is that the Bulldogs only had 22 sacks, but allowed just 3.6 yards per carry. Most of that talent in the trenches is gone. Furthermore, LA Tech had 17 takeaways and 12 were fumble recoveries. So, unfortunately, I do see this defense regressing unless the backups turned starters and the JUCO transfers come together quickly.
Outlook
The schedule is manageable and both Western Kentucky and Liberty visit Ruston, so two of the hardest C-USA games are at home. Plus, the non-conference slate isn’t too bad, except for a random trip to Pullman to face Washington State in mid-November. But, Cumbie just might not be a very good head coach. The Bulldogs are 4-12 in one-score games on his watch.
Pick: Under 5.5 Wins
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Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
To say that Year 1 for Derek Mason was a dud would be an understatement. The former Vanderbilt head coach is back in the Nashville area, but this time in Murfreesboro with the Blue Raiders. Replacing Rick Stockstill, who was the head coach at MTSU from 2006-23, is not an easy task, but a 3-9 showing was the program’s worst season since going 2-10 in 2011.
For a team that only beat Tennessee Tech, Kennesaw State, and UTEP last season, hope may actually be on the horizon. Mason and his assistants brought in some accomplished JUCO talent and a pretty good recruiting class by C-USA standards. The team goes from seven returning starters to more than double that and everything usually improves in Year 2.
Offense
The offense certainly should improve. MTSU scored just 18.1 PPG, rushed for a paltry 91 yards per contest, and was very one-dimensional by virtue of trailing a lot. To have well over 400 pass attempts and score just 18.1 PPG is embarrassing, especially in this conference. The Blue Raiders only scored 20 PPG in league play. So, Bodie Reeder’s offense has to get a lot better for MTSU to exceed expectations.
It could happen, as Nicholas Vattiato is back for his second season in this offense and he threw for over 3,000 yards last season. The running back room should be stronger with Jekail Middlebrook as more of a feature back and Rickey Hunt, who had over five yards per carry at Ohio. The team’s two best WRs are gone, but that was a position of emphasis in the portal.
Defense
Maybe the defense will help the offense more this season as well. Middle Tennessee only had 10 takeaways in 12 games last season. They also generated very little pressure with 20 sacks. The secondary also allowed the seventh-highest completion percentage in the nation. Defense is supposed to be Mason’s bread and butter as a longtime DC and defensive assistant, so that rising tide could lift all boats if he gets more from that group.
The Blue Raiders were in the bottom 10 in yards per play allowed and also gave up over five yards per carry, along with the sixth-worst third-down defense, as opponents converted over 48% of the time. This was also a bottom-20 red-zone defense by TD%. So, a lot of things need to change, but Mason’s transitional year is over and this should be more of the roster he wants.
Outlook
Because Conference USA is so weak, I don’t think it takes much to massively improve year over year. MTSU avoids Liberty and UTEP and clearly has a better roster. A bit of positivity about this team seems to be the prevailing sentiment with juice on Over 4.5 wins, but I think this team can get to six wins and bowl eligibility, if not more.
Pick: Over 4.5 Wins
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Missouri State Bears
The other FBS newcomer is Missouri State, who went 8-4 last season and 6-2 in conference play in the very stacked Missouri Valley Conference. The Bears were blown out by both North Dakota State and South Dakota State to end the season, but they won every game they were favored in and even crushed Illinois State as a road pup.
Unfortunately, the timing of the move to Conference USA is less than ideal, as a ton of talent left the program on both sides of the ball. This is a Louisville-led coaching staff with Ryan Beard at the helm, along with OC Nick Petrino and DC LD Scott, who all worked together with the Cardinals, and at Missouri State, under Bobby Petrino. And they may be in for quite a rude awakening in Year 1.
Offense
QB Jacob Clark is back after posting a 26/6 TD/INT ratio and over 3,600 passing yards, but who he will throw to and who will take handoffs is up for debate. Clark will be down his top two receivers and top two running backs. This was a big-play offense with 6.7 yards per pop and a pass-happy unit with over 300 passing yards per game. Of course, they also gave up 40 sacks and have allowed at least 40 sacks in four of the last five seasons.
One of the big differences between FBS and FCS is the number of available scholarships. Of course, we could also lump funding, boosters, NIL collectives, and stuff like that into the mix. More often than not, the teams that make the leap are undermanned and lack depth. The only position on offense with decent depth is QB. Missouri State is very small at running back and unproven at WR.
Defense
Given that the offense was the side of the ball that really stood out between the two last season, this defense could take a hit as a byproduct of some offensive regression. Missouri State allowed over 30 points per game and 5.8 yards per play. In Beard’s first season at the helm, they allowed 30.3 PPG and 6.2 YPP, so there was a very modest improvement in YPP, due in large part to an increase of 14 sacks.
The top five tacklers from last season are gone, including leading sack man Darion Smith with seven. Jalen Williams had 6.5 sacks and he, too, is gone. Eight of Missouri State’s 12 interceptions are also gone. With so many impact players gone on a defense that was below average last season, what will this season have in store?
Outlook
Conference USA is a soft landing for a transitioning team because it isn’t a very good conference, but Kennesaw State and Sam Houston State are teams that recently made the leap and struggled badly in their first season. Missouri State plays USC, Marshall, and SMU right out of the gate and gets Liberty and UTEP late. Five wins is a stretch.
Pick: Under 4.5 Wins
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New Mexico State Aggies
Big names and television networks drive college football, so there weren’t nearly enough people talking about the job that Jerry Kill did at New Mexico State in 2022 and 2023. This is a program that had one bowl game appearance dating back to 1960 when Kill took over and all he did was go 17-11 in two seasons with two bowl appearances and a bowl victory over Bowling Green in the 2022 Quick Lane Bowl.
Former UNLV head coach Tony Sanchez took over the Aggies for 2024 and they were back to their usual ways with a 3-9 season featuring bad offensive and defensive numbers. The offense scored about six fewer points per game and the defense allowed 13.5 more PPG. Kill deserves a statue on campus in Las Cruces.
Offense
Tyler Wright was promoted from special teams coordinator and TE coach to offensive coordinator, but that lasted four weeks, as offensive and disparaging X posts were found from before he was on the New Mexico State coaching staff. Offensive line coach Andrew Mitchell took over for the season and then moved on to Oklahoma State. In response, Sanchez brought in longtime college coach David Yost, who was most recently at FIU. Over three seasons with the Panthers, Yost improved the unit by a full yard per play and nearly eight points per game.
Yost actually has quite a bit to work with here. Fresno State and Montana QB Logan Fife takes over for a group that posted just a 12/10 TD/INT ratio last season. The top two rushers are gone, but Dijon Stanley was a noteworthy recruit at Utah a few seasons ago. The top two receivers are back. The offensive line is very large by Group of Five, and especially C-USA, standards.
Defense
I actually think the offense will be pretty decent. It’s the defense that has to improve. New Mexico State was -10 in fumble recoveries, as they only had one of them on defense, leading to a -13 turnover margin. So, that’s one area that could improve naturally. The Aggies were also -17 in sack margin, another area that desperately needs to improve. Second-year DC Joe Morris didn’t have a potent pass rush at Sam Houston State when he was the Bearkats’ DC, but they were way better against the run than the Aggies were.
This is one of those cases where returning production is a bit of an oxymoron and a new set of players isn’t a bad thing. That said, the back seven does return some of its best players, including leading tackler Tyler Martinez. There appear to be some promising portal additions as well.
Outlook
The back half of the season is a bear for the Aggies with Liberty, Western Kentucky, Tennessee, and UTEP and all of them are on the road. But, this should be a team that gets off to a good start. Frankly, they could open the season 5-0 and I wouldn’t be surprised. Truthfully, anything less than 4-1 is a major disappointment and then we only need to find another win somewhere.
Pick: Over 4.5 Wins
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Sam Houston Bearkats
Longtime offensive coordinator Phil Longo gets his first crack as a FBS head coach, but he’ll replace a Sam Houston State legend to do it. K.C. Keeler decided to return to the Philadelphia area by taking over at Temple and the Bearkats opted to move quickly to reunite with Longo, who was the offensive coordinator from 2014-16. Longo has a blank slate to work with on both sides of the ball as he looks to put his stamp on the program for a second time.
Keeler did one of the best coaching jobs in the nation last season, as Sam Houston went from 3-9 to 10-3, but the Bearkats did win all six one-score games that they played, including the New Orleans Bowl over Georgia Southern. It is hard to see a rebuilt roster very light on experience replicating anything close to last season.
Offense
Hunter Watson is the most notable returnee on offense, but Longo did bring Mabrey Mettauer with him from Wisconsin, where he recruited him as the OC. Watson had a pedestrian 12/8 TD/INT ratio for an offense that averaged just 23.8 points per game and 5.0 yards per play, so his job is hardly safe. Several transfers are likely to see time, as the Bearkats replace their top two running backs and nearly their entire WR corps.
Longo didn’t seem to fit well at Wisconsin, but his offenses were thoroughly productive at North Carolina, Ole Miss, and right here in Huntsville. We should see more tempo and more passing from this year’s Bearkats, but I’m not sure that’s a great recipe with a brand-new defense and questionable QB play.
Defense
The Bearkats were a defensive juggernaut last season. The team finished +12 in turnover margin thanks to 27 takeaways, including 16 interceptions, and improved by 1.1 yards per play year over year. This was a top-15 defense by YPP and third in the nation in yards per attempt against.
Unfortunately, the top returning tackler had 16 tackles. Zero of the team’s 28 sacks are back. Two players who had four interceptions are out. DC Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay comes in from NC State and will call plays for the first time since 2019. The best-case scenario might be that Sam Houston replicates their 2023 numbers with 26.2 PPG and 5.9 YPP allowed. As mentioned, that team went 3-9.
Outlook
Rebuilding year is an overused term in college football because the transfer portal and all of the other personnel changes can create a rebuild at any given time. This is the dictionary definition of it. Even without Liberty on the schedule, I really don’t think the Bearkats can get to five wins. They look like they’ll start 0-4 and a 5-7 finish would be quite a feat.
Pick: Under 4.5 Wins
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UTEP Miners
The final season in Conference USA will be this one for UTEP, as they’ll join the new-look Mountain West next season. While that change won’t take place until 2026, changes have taken place in advance of this season, as head coach Scotty Walden had to hire two new coordinators. DC JJ Clark took a job with the Dallas Cowboys and OC Mark Cala joined the staff, though Walden calls the plays on offense.
For a group that managed just 4.8 yards per play and 19.5 points per game, maybe Walden should give up the play-calling duties, but there are a lot of hands in the offensive cookie jar with Walden, an OC, and two co-OCs. It sounds complicated for a team with one bowl appearance since 2014 and modest expectations for this season after a second consecutive 3-9 campaign.
Offense
Skyler Locklear is the incumbent, but UTEP reined in a very splashy transfer in Malachi Nelson, who started at USC and then wound up at Boise State. Nelson was a five-star recruit per 247 Sports and the 13th-ranked player in the nation when he committed to the Trojans. Now 21, Nelson may get his chance to shine. Locklear had a 10/6 TD/INT ratio last season, but dealt with injuries.
Three of the team’s top four receivers are back and in Year 2 of the spread, one-back offense. The offensive line is also pretty well-versed in this scheme, as injuries in the trenches gave several guys opportunities. It’s entirely possible that this all comes together, but, again, this group scored fewer than 20 PPG last season. It’s going to take a sizable leap to make a major difference.
Defense
Walden seemingly made a strong hire with Montana State DC Bobby Daly, as the Bobcats were the national runner-up at the FCS level last season. Daly gets a group that had 36 sacks last season with a 3-3-5 base setup, but the top sack men from that unit are gone. Fortunately, there are some returnees familiar with the scheme at each level of the defense and that could make the transition a little bit smoother.
Two of UTEP’s wins last season came in games where they allowed 35 points, although the win over Kennesaw State came in double overtime. Still, this group, much like the offense, has a long way to go to be a Conference USA contender. It does seem like a lot of C-USA teams got worse or stayed about the same, which is why there’s some optimism about the Miners with some new hires and new players.
Outlook
247 Sports has UTEP down for the best incoming class in C-USA and fourth-best transfer class, though the gap between No. 2 and No. 7 is essentially the gap between No. 1 (Western Kentucky) and No. 2 (Jax State). So, UTEP has improved the talent on the roster. I don’t think six wins is a huge ask, despite Utah State and Texas in the non-conference.
Pick: Over 5.5 Wins
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Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Tyson Helton is the longest-tenured coach in C-USA and it’s fair to say that he also has the most consistent program. In six seasons in Western Kentucky, Helton has had one losing campaign and it was the 2020 COVID season, which was a weird one for just about everybody. Otherwise, Helton has won eight or nine games in all of the other seasons. Players and coaches have come and gone, but Helton has almost always found a way to put a good team on the field.
The losses from last season are rather enormous, so Helton is under a bit more pressure to get the team up to its usual standards. Only one starter returns on offense and virtually everybody of consequence is gone on defense. Oh, and he’s replacing his coordinators as well. And yet, between reputation and the way he’s filled holes in the past, some might say that Western Kentucky and Liberty are on a crash course in the conference title game.
Offense
The Hilltoppers are replacing their starting quarterback, running back, top four wide receivers, and four starters on the offensive line. Here’s the thing, though. Last season’s 24.9 points per game were the fewest since that COVID season and 5.5 points fewer than what they scored in 2023. The running game was the worst of Helton’s tenure and the overall yards per play were the lowest since 2020. So, while Western Kentucky is replacing a lot of the depth chart, the offense largely underperformed.
Helton’s new OC is Rick Bowie, who was at Valdosta State and Abilene Christian. Bowie brought his QB, Maverick McIvor, with him. McIvor will be throwing to one holdover in KD Hutchinson and a bevy of transfers, but Bowie looks like a strong hire and McIvor doesn’t have a learning curve with the playbook. I actually think the offense will be better this season compared to last.
Defense
There was a lot of smoke and mirrors to the WKU defense last season. They allowed five yards per carry for the first time in Helton’s tenure and gave up 5.9 yards per play, which was also a disappointing number relative to Helton’s other seasons. They were outgained on average in C-USA play and somehow gave up under 25 points per game overall and in league action.
The new co-DCs were simply elevated from their position coach roles after Tyson Summers left for Colorado State. Da’Von Brown and Davis Merritt don’t have a lot of experience and virtually no returning production to work with, but the Hilltoppers always find a way to be competent on this side of the ball.
Outlook
I’ll be honest – I think this is the hardest team to gauge in the conference. Like I said, Helton always finds a way and he’s lost big players and big coordinators before. The Hilltoppers avoid Liberty and only get one Power Four opponent instead of two. I have to give Helton the benefit of the doubt in a weak conference.
Pick: Over 7.5 Wins
