CONFERENCE USA OVERVIEW
Recently, Conference USA has been the proving ground for teams moving up from the FCS ranks to the FBS world. This season, that is not the case, as the new teams are in the Mountain West and MAC. However, with Louisiana Tech off to the Sun Belt and UTEP to the Mountain West, Conference USA goes from 12 teams down to 10.
This is absolutely the weakest conference in college football. There were 136 FBS teams last season. Jeff Sagarin’s end-of-season rankings had four teams in the conference 158th or lower. Four other teams were ranked 120th or lower. Ironically, the top two teams as ranked by Sagarin – Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech – weren’t even involved in the conference championship game. Kennesaw State won 19-15 over Jacksonville State in that one.
It was a truly impressive season for Kennesaw State. The Owls fired their longtime head coach during their first season as a FBS member in 2024 and hired Jerry Mack, who was a running backs coach in the NFL the season prior and had only been a head coach at NC Central in the mid-2010s. With that win, the Owls avenged their only conference regular-season loss and then got pumped by Western Michigan in the Myrtle Beach Bowl.
The Gamecocks may be able to avenge that title game loss, as they look to be a contender once again behind second-year head coach Charles Kelly, as the team lost head coach Rich Rodriguez, had very few returning starters, and still went 7-1 in league action before the loss in the title game.
Arguably the biggest storyline of the season is whether or not Liberty will bounce back. After a 21-5 start, including a College Football Playoff appearance, it all fell apart for Jamey Chadwell, as the Flames went just 4-8 last season. Liberty (+260) is the conference favorite over Western Kentucky (+280), who has the longest-tenured coach in the conference as Tyson Helton starts his eighth season. With Jacksonville State (+450) and Delaware (7-1) as the others lined in single digits, this looks to be a wide-open Group of Six conference again.
DELAWARE FIGHTIN’ BLUE HENS
Accomplishments matter to these programs, especially the ones that have recently transitioned from FCS to FBS. For Delaware to finish last season with a bowl victory was a huge one for the trophy case, as Ryan Carty’s Fightin’ Blue Hens pulled the mild upset of Louisiana in the 68 Ventures Bowl. Whether that bowl game win had something to do with it or not, Delaware is in really good shape from a returning production standpoint, especially relative to their C-USA peers.
It all starts with QB Nick Minicucci, who threw for nearly 3,700 yards with a 23/7 TD/INT ratio. All of the running backs and top WR Sean Wilson are back around Minicucci, though his two best offensive linemen are not. Defensively, there’s a bit of continuity here as well. While the Blue Hens were outgained on a per-play basis in C-USA action, the arrow seems to be pointing up in Year 2 with more scholarships and more depth.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Can Manny Rojas put the ‘D’ back in ‘elaware?
Even in a lackluster conference, the leap from FCS to FBS was on display on the defensive side for the Blue Hens. In their final season as a FCS member, they allowed 21 PPG and 5.3 YPP. In their first season at the FBS level, they allowed 31 PPG and 6.0 YPP. The biggest disappointment – or maybe most noticeable development – is that opponents ran for 4.6 yards per carry, including 4.5 YPC from Conference USA foes. Rojas has been with Delaware since 2020, so even before Carty took over. He kept him as the DC, but you wonder about his allegiance to him if the defense falters again in Year 2, especially with three of their four leading tacklers back and a few FBS-level transfers.
Will the offensive line be the team’s downfall?
Last season, the Blue Hens only rushed for 3.8 YPC and a lot of that was because Minicucci had 112 carries for just 235 yards. His average of 2.1 YPC dragged down the team as a whole, though second-leading rusher Viron Ellison only had 3.9 YPC himself. While the offensive line technically only gave up 27 sacks, and just 14 in conference play, it was pretty clear that Minicucci was the reason why with scrambles and some designed short-yardage runs. Sadly, the Blue Hens lost two long-term OL starters in Patrick Shupp and Fintan Brose, though both tackles combined for 24 starts at various positions and the center is back as well. This was not an area flush with transfers for Delaware, so they’ll have to hope internal options get better.
It’s a game of adjustments, right?
Delaware played some tight games in league play, losing by a field goal to both Western Kentucky and Sam Houston State, while beating Middle Tennessee by three and Louisiana Tech by one. Coin flips like that will likely determine the outcome for the season, but those are more established programs at the FBS level with stronger recruiting pipelines. Delaware’s talent level doesn’t seem that much higher. They did not play Kennesaw State, Missouri State, or New Mexico State last season, but they will this season, with the NMSU game all the way out in Las Cruces on November 21. Kennesaw State won the conference. The others all have film on them now. How will Carty and his crew adjust?
Delaware 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 5.5 Wins
The most likely outcome for Delaware is 6-6 based on the heavy vig on Over 5.5, but Minicucci takes a lot of hits and the depth behind him is virtually non-existent. Add the long trek to the Land of Enchantment, reigning champ Kennesaw State, two road games against better P4 opponents than last season, and this year’s schedule feels a bit trickier. Carty appears to be a solid coach and this appears to be a good program, but they were outgained on a per-play basis and struggled in the trenches in a subpar conference. My projection is 5.73 wins.
FIU GOLDEN PANTHERS
An unsung hero in the 2025 coaching ranks was FIU’s Willie Simmons, who took the team bowling for the first time since 2019. Mike MacIntyre was brought in to stabilize the ship after it hit extremely rough seas late in Butch Davis’s tenure. He did, but with a trio of 4-8 seasons. Simmons, who was the head coach at Florida A&M and Prairie View A&M prior to getting this gig, coached the Panthers to their first winning record in conference play since 2018 and had nearly as many conference wins (5) as MacIntyre had over three years (6).
Simmons is college football’s Mike Tomlin, as he has never had a losing season as a head coach. It got a little bit dicey last season, as FIU won four straight games to finish the regular season 7-5, otherwise the bowl blowout at the hands of UTSA could’ve ended that streak. Despite the financial commitment to this program from Armando Christian Perez, better known as Pitbull, and the school’s location in Florida, this has been a hard place to win and a hard place to sustain winning.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
What does Simmons have in store for an encore?
So, that’s the obvious first question. Interestingly, the team was worse in a few key statistical areas, falling from 5.7 to 5.6 YPP on offense and going up from 5.2 to 5.9 YPP on defense. However, if you look closer, what FIU did in conference play was very impressive. They racked up better than 6.2 YPP and allowed just over 5.6. It is always important to parse out the paycheck games for teams like this, where games at Penn State and at UConn don’t have much merit in the metrics or for the next season. Unfortunately for Simmons, his leading QB, RB, WR, tackler, and defensive back are all gone, so he and his staff had a lot of work to do in the offseason.
Will Kohl cash in his latest opportunity?
To replace Keyone Jenkins, OC Nick Coleman and Simmons were able to wrangle JJ Kohl, who was originally at Iowa State then went to Appalachian State, where he had a 12/2 TD/INT ratio over six starts and some relief efforts. Kohl was a four-star in the 2023 class out of Iowa and is a massive human being at 6-foot-7 and 245 pounds. With a new QB, the loss of leading WR Alex Perry is probably less significant, as he was going to have to develop chemistry with everybody anyway, but Perry did have 530 more receiving yards and 25 more catches than anybody else, which is part of the reason why he’s at Illinois now. It wouldn’t be terribly surprising to see Kohl in something of a timeshare with Delaware transfer Zach Marker or freshman DJ Alexander, with the latter two as bigger running threats.
How much of a worry is the secondary?
Mister Clark had 13 pass breakups, primarily playing as the nickel, and also had 6.5 tackles for loss. He was a truly dynamic player on a defense that didn’t have a lot of them. While the front seven has a few remaining pieces, including top sack man Kenton Simmons, the secondary is a grab bag of transfers. The projected starting corners are from Duke and FAU, while the player replacing Clark’s role is a multi-time transfer, most recently from Oklahoma State. The safety position looks good with homegrown star Shamir Sterlin and two-year South Alabama starter Wesley Miller. The FIU QBs combined for 13 INT last season, but the defense had 21 takeaways (T-26th) and the team was exactly even in TO margin. Impact plays like that are going to be necessary again.
FIU 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 6.5 Wins
This is a pick for guide purposes, as the vig is heavy on the Under because the schedule is beefed up a bit more. What Simmons is doing is very impressive and this will be a highly competitive team yet again, plenty capable of getting to seven or eight wins if the ball bounces their way. However, their road games are at Jacksonville State, Liberty, Delaware, and Kennesaw State, who have three of the four shortest prices to win the conference. Roadies at USF and Florida Atlantic are tricky, especially in a revenge spot for the Owls, who lost in Miami last season. My projection is 5.99 wins.
JACKSONVILLE STATE GAMECOCKS
It has been quite a ride thus far for Jacksonville State, as the Gamecocks have won nine games in four consecutive seasons, three of them as a FBS member. In that span, Jacksonville State is +24 in TO margin and that has made a huge difference, but they’ve also been good for two different head coaches in Rich Rodriguez and Charles Kelly. With Rich Rod back at West Virginia where it all started, the Gamecocks made what turned out to be a savvy hire of Kelly, who was an assistant here way back in the mid-90s. This is his first crack at being the head man in charge and Year 1 was a success.
We’ll see what Year 2 has in store, as the Gamecocks will be without Cam Cook, who ran for 1,659 yards, but will fully turn the keys of the offense over to QB Caden Creel, a 1,000-yard rusher himself who also threw for over 1,500 yards. This was a much more efficient offense with Creel at the helm as opposed to Rutgers/Kentucky transfer Gavin Wimsatt and that means there’s a lot of hope for this group, even if a new stud running back needs to emerge.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Will the running back by committee approach work?
Last season, Cook was a bell cow, racking up 295 rush attempts and 16 rushing touchdowns. Creel and Wimsatt were the next two leading rushers. Somebody is likely to emerge as more of a standout and perhaps it will be Jalen Likely, who only had seven carries in eight games last season, but had 7.4 yards per pop. He’s just 5-foot-8, so taking a bunch of abuse like Cook did is likely out of the question. Justus Savage and Khristian Lambo are bigger backs and both holdovers from last season, though OC Clint Trickett now holds the same role at Maryland. TE coach Taylor Housewright is the new OC and he has experience, having held the same role for two years at Montana State. Perhaps we see a little more throwing from Creel this season while waiting for an RB to step forward.
How will Housewright work Deondre Johnson into the offense?
Once upon a time in ‘24, Deondre made no money and life sure was slow. And all they said was 6’8” he stood and people thought the music that he made was good. (probably the first Montell Jordan reference in a VSiN Betting Guide) Alright, so I don’t know if any of that is true – the money or the music – but 6-foot-8 WR Deondre Johnson is the top, and really only, returning receiver for the Gamecocks. He had 724 yards on just 30 receptions, as the next closest guy was TE Brock Rechsteiner with 36 grabs for 383 yards. With 59 trips into the red zone, Jacksonville State was just 93rd in TD%. Surely the 6-foot-8 guy will be more of a focal point this season, alongside a collection of transfers from other small schools and some homegrowns that will get more of an opportunity.
Is the Regression Monster lurking?
While the Gamecocks kept their streak of winning nine games alive, they scored nearly eight points per game fewer year over year, benefitting greatly from a +10 TO margin and a lot of wins in tight games. The Gamecocks were 7-2 in conference play with wins by 10, 2, 13, 3, 3, 9, and 3. Kennesaw State got revenge for their nine-point loss with a four-point win in the C-USA Title Game. Like I said, this is a team that is +24 in TO margin since joining the conference and was +11 in conference games, specifically, last season. They did average over six yards per play in conference games and did outgain the opposition overall and on a per-play basis, but not to the tune of a 7-2 record.
Jacksonville State 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 7.5 Wins
This is not a bet, but I am cautiously optimistic that the Gamecocks can go 8-4 during the regular season. While they do go to Western Kentucky and Delaware, they avoid Liberty and should be comfortably favored in their four conference home tilts. This is an established program and even if there are some mild downturns, they can run the ball and might have the best QB in the conference. My projection is 7.47 wins.
KENNESAW STATE OWLS
The best story in the Group of Five may very well have been Kennesaw State and there were not enough people talking about it. This was a team that went 2-10 as a first-year FBS member in 2024. They went 10-4, won the conference, and did so with a first-year head coach and a lot of new personnel. The 2024 season was supposed to be a celebration for the program, finally graduating to FBS status with the wheels set in motion when they won 11+ games in four straight full seasons from 2017-21. But, as the team got closer, Brian Bohannon became less successful, going 5-6 in 2022 and 3-6 in 2023. He was fired nine games into the 2024 season, even after an incredible upset of Liberty a few weeks earlier.
A lot of players left in light of Bohannon’s departure, but Jerry Mack got to work, quickly rebuilding the roster and he hit a home run with QB Amari Odom, who stabilized the offense and gave them a dual-threat component. With Odom gone, and the standards for the program reestablished, Mack’s encore performance is going to be one to follow.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Where’s the offense?
This is a complete rebuild on offense. Odom is now at Syracuse and Dexter Williams is also gone. Rickie Collins transferred in from Syracuse and Landon Varnes was a JUCO starter with 31 TD passes against 14 picks last season at Mississippi Gulf Coast. Varnes picked the Owls over Arkansas State and Eastern Michigan, so we’ll see if he ends up beating out Collins. Regardless of who barks out the signals, all of last season’s running backs are gone and all but two wide receivers are elsewhere. OC Mitch Militello is a branch of the Josh Heupel tree and you wonder if maybe he has the personnel now to play faster. The Owls averaged 69 plays per game last season, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see that number go up.
Can the Owls find more defensive consistency?
This is not a good offensive conference, but the Owls gave up more than 400 yards per game and were outgained by 0.5 yards per carry. While they did outgain the opposition on a per-play basis thanks to some explosives in the passing game, this was a defense that allowed nearly 6.5 yards per play in the month of November when the schedule ramped up. They had a 41-34 win over Missouri State and a 48-42 win over Liberty in a double-overtime tilt. They also got completely smacked by Western Michigan in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. The Owls were outgained in four of their eight conference wins. The top three tacklers are back, but will this defense take a step forward?
Is more Mack magic on the horizon?
As mentioned, this was virtually a brand-new team last season and it will be full of new faces again this season. Mack brought in more than 60 players via the portal last season. 247Sports has 29 graded transfers for the Owls and their class ranks third in the conference behind Sam Houston and Liberty. An eight-win improvement year over year was just incredible, especially with two Power Four teams to start the season in Wake Forest and Indiana. On one hand, it’s fair to be excited that some of the transfers that didn’t feature prominently last season will have the chance now in Year 2 in the system. On the other hand, there is basically zero returning production on offense and what are the chances lightning strikes again?
Kennesaw State 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 6.5 Wins
From conference champs to maybe not even making a bowl game? There are a lot of signs that point in that direction. Even though there is only one clear loss on the schedule in non-conference as opposed to what we all assumed was two last season (only lost 10-9 to Wake Forest), the conference schedule is tough and it does seem like the teams in some of the toss-up games may have improved more than the Owls. My projection is 6.34 wins.
LIBERTY FLAMES
From one of the nation’s biggest surprises to one of the biggest disappointments. Kennesaw State’s eight-win improvement was a shocker, but so was Liberty’s complete reversal of fortunes, going from 8-4 to 4-8, as head coach Jamey Chadwell posted his worst record since 2017 when he was the interim HC at Coastal Carolina while Joe Moglia tended to health issues and the Chanticleers went 3-9.
It is hard to pinpoint the cause of the Flames’ decline, as they only beat Maine, UTEP, New Mexico State, and Delaware, losing four times as a favorite. While it is reasonable to point out Liberty’s bad luck in close games, losing the last three in overtime to FIU, Louisiana Tech, and Kennesaw State, it was the sign of a team that didn’t pay attention to the details. They had more interceptions than passing touchdowns, didn’t have sacks or takeaways on defense, and didn’t seem to have much leadership. As Chadwell begins Year 4 with a new DC, a bounce back is expected.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Will Chadwell fix the passing game?
It’s hardly a coincidence that Chadwell was getting ready to leave Coastal Carolina just as Grayson McCall was running out of eligibility. Chadwell did get former Chanticleer Ethan Vasko to transfer in, but that didn’t really work out well, as he posted a 10/12 TD/INT ratio, threw for under 2,000 yards, and had just 2.6 yards per carry on 100 attempts. Vasko is still on the roster, but Chadwell also went to the transfer portal store and picked out Deshawn Purdie, formerly at Wake Forest. He also picked up some WR transfers from Charleston Southern and Indiana. Chadwell’s offense is predicated on a lot of pre-snap motion to get guys into space, but Vasko didn’t make those throws. Purdie is only a 50% passer over 282 attempts. While Chadwell has options, it remains to be seen if any of them are good.
But maybe he doesn’t have to?
One of the top free agent pickups in the conference is former Army running back Kanye Udoh. After running for 1,117 yards in 2024, Udoh was able to transfer out of West Point and wound up at Arizona State, where he didn’t see much action. Now he’s back on the East Coast to fill the big cleats of Evan Dickens, who was a bright spot for an otherwise lackluster offense with 1,339 yards and 16 TD out of the backfield. Peyton Jones from Duke and Kam Davis from Florida State seem promising as well. When Chadwell had McCall, it was a pass-first offense. Now that he doesn’t, it’s a run-first offense with 508 carries against 316 pass attempts last season. All the QBs need to do is complete enough passes to keep defenses honest.
Is new DC Shawn Quinn the right man for the job?
Coordinator hires can be a huge deal at any program, but especially in the G6 conferences because the talent levels vary so much. Quinn, who was the outside linebackers coach at Virginia Tech, went 16-6 as the head coach at Savannah State before joining the Hokies. Ironically, Quinn was the DC the year before Chadwell took over at Charleston Southern, so the two have probably crossed paths, but never worked together until now. Leading tackler Derrell Farrar is back, but this is mostly a blank slate for Quinn. That’s good because what hurt Liberty last season was allowing 0.7 more yards per carry than the two previous seasons and a linebackers coach turned DC should be able to fix that.
Liberty 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 8.5 Wins
It seems like just about every unit for Liberty has been improved in some way. We’ll see if the QB position is actually better and if Udoh can match what Dickens did, but the depth is stronger at both positions and the offensive line looks significantly better. The biggest selling point for me, though, is the hire of Quinn as DC. Virginia Tech almost always has a strong defense and this is a guy who can identify talent in the DMV at a very high level. I fully expect the defense to be better against the run and that should make a huge difference. My projection is 8.24 wins, but I like their chances to win more of the close games.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE BLUE RAIDERS
A very important Year 3 for head coach Derek Mason is on the horizon, as back-to-back 3-9 seasons have not inspired much confidence in the direction of the program. The Men of Murfreesboro haven’t seen a bowl game since 2022 and saw modest improvement in 2025, but not nearly enough to be pleased with how things played out. Despite Mason’s background on the defensive side of the ball, MTSU allowed 34.3 PPG in Year 1 and 30.9 PPG in Year 2, though they did improve by 0.8 yards per play.
With very minimal, if any, improvements to the offense, a new OC has hit the town, as Anthony Scelfo, previously at Southeastern Louisiana, is the new OC. We’ll see if Scelfo can build on some late-season offensive gains under QB Roman Gagliano, who stuck around with the program despite opening some eyes over the final three games.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Is Roman the right man to follow into battle?
Under Gagliano, the offense scored 26, 31, and 31 points with 541, 460, and 459 yards, numbers that were almost untouchable prior to Nicholas Vattiato’s injury. With over 1,000 passing yards in three starts and a couple of relief appearances to go with 4.3 yards per carry on 39 tries and a 7/0 TD/INT ratio, the question has to be asked – why wasn’t he starting to begin with? I won’t pretend to know the dynamics in the locker room or in the building, but the redshirt freshman was surely making less NIL money than the program’s all-time second-leading passer and it does feel like some teams, especially those at the G6 level, are unwilling to move on from entrenched starters that they have invested in.
Will Roman rebuild the offense in a day?
Probably not, but at least the end-of-season developments were promising. Scelfo has been at SE Louisiana coaching under his father since 2021, as this will be his first time calling plays at the FBS level. While Gagliano returns, others do not, as Cam’Ron Lacey is back after leading the team with 549 yards, but nobody else with 30+ catches is back and leading rusher Jekail Middlebrook has also moved on. However, the running back room looks a lot stronger with holdover DJ Taylor, who had 7.7 yards per carry on just 26 attempts, Saginaw Valley State transfer Terence Brown, and Antonio Martin, who rushed for over five yards per pop for SELA in Scelfo’s first season as OC in 2024. Even if Gagliano isn’t the real deal, MTSU should run the ball a lot better.
Can Derek fix the ‘D’?
The cupboard wasn’t totally bare on defense when Mason took over for longtime head coach Rick Stockstill, but it wasn’t fully stocked either. Still, it was shocking to see MTSU give up 6.7 yards per play in his first year. After getting some better players in the front seven, the Blue Raiders shaved 1.2 yards per carry off year over year, but the secondary continued to struggle. MTSU was tied for 105th in the nation in passing plays of 20+ yards allowed. There are very few noteworthy holdovers from last season, except for Reggie Johnson, who was second in sacks with 3.5. This is a mostly rebuilt defense via the transfer portal, both from this past cycle and the one before it.
Middle Tennessee 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 4.5 Wins
Bowl eligibility still looks like a tall task, but five wins is attainable, especially at the plus-money price being offered. Scelfo and a more robust running game with a more mobile QB should help, especially in C-USA, where teams that run the ball efficiently often fare better than others. I’ll give Mason the benefit of the doubt that after his third portal and freshmen classes that he has players that better fit what he wants to do on defense. MTSU lost by 20 to FCS Austin Peay to open last season, so I presume they’ll be ready for Murray State and they went out to Reno and beat Nevada last season. If they can split the non-conference games, three wins are available in conference play. My projection is 4.1 wins, but I like the value on the Over.
MISSOURI STATE BEARS
Missouri State is starting over in more ways than one this season. Former SMU OC Casey Woods is now the head coach and returning production is hard to find on the depth chart, as a lot of players followed head coach Ryan Beard to Coastal Carolina or found homes elsewhere. It’s no surprise that Beard was scooped up, as he took the Bears to a bowl game in their first FBS season and outgained Arkansas State in a losing effort to finish 7-6.
Year 2 is always an interesting one for teams that recently transitioned, as they have more scholarships available, but also can’t really sneak up on opponents anymore. Also, you often bid adieu to productive players who wanted to see the transition through and then either ran out of eligibility or got some more looks and better offers. The 43-year-old Woods has worked under Gus Malzahn, Eli Drinkwitz, Rhett Lashlee, and his dad Sparky has been a ball coach since 1976.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Who will fill the large cleats of Jacob Clark?
Clark was signed as an undrafted free agent by the Raiders, leaving Missouri State as the program’s all-time second-leading passer. He posted a 28/11 TD/INT ratio in his final season, a year in which he played through some injuries and even missed a start. He’s a notable loss and his absence is exacerbated by the loss of Shomari Lawrence, who ran for 1,021 yards and seven touchdowns. The next leading rusher was Ramone Green with just 52 carries for 278 yards. Duke transfer Henry Belin and UTEP transfer Skyler Locklear are the two QB newcomers via the portal, along with holdovers Cole Feuerbacher and Elijah Leonard. Belin spent four years with the Blue Devils and basically never saw the field. Locklear had turnover issues for the Miners. Locklear’s QB coach from last season, Mark Cala, is the new OC, so we’ll see how that dynamic plays out.
Will whoever plays QB even have a chance?
While King Large is an all-name team member and the projected starter at left tackle, he, like so many others on the line, is unproven. On one hand, that may not be a bad thing. The Bears allowed 52 sacks last season and mustered just 3.5 yards per carry, even with Lawrence’s success. That’s because when Clark wasn’t sacked, he was busy running for his life with 94 carries for -16 yards. There is virtually no FBS experience with this group, but this is a program that has had problems protecting the QB since 2020, allowing 40+ sacks in five of those six seasons. Woods brought Hussam Ouri with him from SMU to serve as the offensive line coach and he might be the most important guy on that sideline this season.
Is the picture on defense any better?
A little bit, as leading tackler Jared Lloyd is back, along with two other starters in Christian Ford and Dylan Dixson. This wasn’t a great defense last season anyway, as they allowed 5.9 YPP, including 388 rushing yards to a bad Louisiana Tech team in the season finale, though the players probably knew that Beard was on his way out. New DC Jack Curtis has over a decade’s worth of experience in that role, but, much like the offense, the trenches are a focal point. Auburn had 30 sacks last season and held opponents to under three yards per carry with Curtis as a defensive analyst and assistant DL coach Brett Kulka, who will coach defensive ends for Missouri State.
Missouri State 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 4.5 Wins
The juice is heavy on this one, but it’s really the only way to look. Perhaps Woods turns Belin or Locklear into a quality starting QB, but this is a team with major questions in the trenches and that is a lot to overlook given the uncertainty at the most important position on the field. This seems like a transitional year to get a feel for things and then Woods will find himself a more suitable QB in Year 2. They play all of the conference’s top teams, including Western Kentucky, Delaware, and Jacksonville State on the road, so it could be a long year. My projection is 4.12 wins.
NEW MEXICO STATE AGGIES
The job that Jerry Kill did in Las Cruces seems to get more and more impressive with each passing day. Kill was the head coach of the Aggies in 2022 and 2023, leading them to a 17-11 record. Tony Sanchez has won seven games in two seasons. This is a very difficult job and success has been hard to come by to say the least. Aside from Kill’s 7-6 and 10-5 campaigns, the program has one other winning season (2017) dating back to 2002. In many of those seasons, they’ve had three or fewer wins.
Frankly, it was surprising to see NMSU improve their record at all last season, going from 3-9 to 4-8, as they had as many interceptions (16) as touchdowns and had the absolute worst rushing offense in the nation. But, they went from -13 in TO margin in Sanchez’s first season to exactly even last season, so the defense found more takeaways to help the cause, including nine fumble recoveries. The bar is low, but the Aggies will once again struggle to clear it.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Will the offense be “Hedden” in the right direction?
Sanchez and OC David Yost, who has run productive offenses in the past at Texas Tech and Utah State, have choices at QB this season. Adam Damante, who started two games last season, is the top holdover, while Trey Hedden and Kalani McLeod came in via the portal. Hedden had turnover issues at Furman with a 30/22 TD/INT ratio, but also threw for more than 4,700 yards over 20 starts and change. McLeod took his only FBS offer and transferred in from Diablo Valley College. Given Hedden’s D-I experience, he’s the leader in the clubhouse to start, but everybody probably gets a look at some point.
What about the skill positions?
As mentioned, this was the worst rushing attack in the nation. The Aggies mustered just 77 rush yards per game and only crossed the century mark twice. Sprinter James Jones transferred in from Delaware State and true freshman Xavier Rucker was the highest-rated freshman to join the program. At wide receiver, three of the top four pass-catchers are gone, but nobody had eye-popping numbers. Truth be told, while offensive linemen aren’t really classified as skill-position players, this is the unit of the offense that looks the most improved with some starting experience at the FCS and JUCO ranks and one returning starter. That’s not to say that the offense will suddenly put up great numbers, but the running game should at least improve.
Is the defense ripe for regression?
While the defensive numbers improved greatly year over year, with nearly nine fewer PPG allowed and 0.8 fewer YPP, it really came down to simply forcing more turnovers. The Aggies only had 10 takeaways in 2024, including just one fumble recovery. Fumble luck was on their side with nine of them in 2025 to go along with 15 interceptions. The Aggies were also tied for 22nd in terms of red-zone attempts against. As encouraging as all of those things are, and there are a good number of returning starters and contributors, the defense still only managed 19 sacks and only has 33 sacks over the last two seasons. Ezra Christensen led the team with six sacks and 10 QB hits. Jamall Thompson had four sacks. Both are gone.
New Mexico State 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 4.5 Wins
Perhaps this is Sanchez’s best team, but others in C-USA look improved, too, and every road trip is a hike for this team. Not only do they go to Miami and the Nashville area in conference play, but they have non-conference trips to Tallahassee and Honolulu. Depth was a huge issue last season and looks to be again, as 247Sports does have the program with 26 portal players, but the seventh-ranked class out of 10 teams. My projection is 4.61 wins.
SAM HOUSTON BEARKATS
I wasn’t right about everything in last year’s College Football Betting Guide, but I was right about Sam Houston. The Bearkats went from 10-3 to 2-10, as Year 1 for Phil Longo did not work out at all. The offense was terrible, the defense was worse, and the Bearkats started 0-8 before a couple of stunning upsets over Oregon State and Delaware. They were favored once and lost that game by 27 points at New Mexico State.
On the plus side, Sam Houston will be playing back in their home stadium after being forced to relocate last season due to renovations. SHSU was on the plus side last season in turnover margin at +2, but still got outscored by 20 PPG overall and 19 PPG in conference play. It is extremely difficult to build off of those disastrous kinds of numbers, especially with seven yards per play allowed. Despite the debacle, the Bearkats still roll into the 2026 season with the same head coach and the same coordinators.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
(Sam) Houston, what are the problems on offense?
Well, there are a lot of them. Longo has been a longtime OC who likes to play with tempo and move the ball with the Air Raid. The QBs combined for a 12/10 TD/INT ratio and mustered just 2,209 yards. The running game was serviceable with 4.3 yards per carry and running backs that averaged 5.8, 6.7, and 4.2 YPC, as the QBs dragged down the average big time. Ultimately, the QBs were the root of all the problems. The offensive line was far from great with 36 sacks allowed, but finishing 127th in PPG falls on the guys barking out the offense and the guys calling it. Landyn Locke threw for 765 yards last season and only completed 50.4% of his passes. He’s the projected starter.
Can the defense get better even if the offense doesn’t?
It could, and should, given that this was the worst defense in the nation in yards allowed per game. Even with UNLV, Hawaii, Texas, and Oregon State in non-conference play, the Bearkats still gave up more yards on a per-game basis to conference opponents in a terrible offensive conference. Among teams with exactly 12 games played, only Stanford allowed more passing yards. Only Georgia State, UAB, and UMass allowed more points per game. Returning production would be an oxymoron here, but there really isn’t much of it anyway, as second-year DC Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay did a lot of portal shopping. 247Sports has the Bearkats down for the best portal haul in the conference and the secondary was a huge focal point.
Will the real Sam Houston please stand up?
KC Keeler returned home to southeastern Pennsylvania to take over at Temple following a 10-3 season in 2024. While that was thoroughly impressive, the Bearkats were just 3-9 with Keeler at the helm in 2023, their first season in Conference USA. The 10-3 team only scored 23.8 PPG with 20.5 PPG against and was only +0.2 in YPP differential. A +12 TO margin really did a lot of heavy lifting, as the team finished -2 in sack differential and went 6-0 in games decided by six or fewer points, including the New Orleans Bowl win over Georgia Southern. In other words, it’s hard not to look at this team and feel like 2023 and 2025 are more of what we should expect.
Sam Houston 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 3.5 Wins
The betting market seems to share that same sentiment with heavy juice on another 3-9 or worse campaign. The defense has experienced a full facelift, but there is no way to erase the scars of giving up nearly 500 yards per game in this conference. A dearth of talent is one thing, but that doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence in the play-caller either. And then on the other side of the ball, Longo is in Year 2 of trying to install a new scheme, but he’s attempting to put a Dodge Dart engine into a Geo Prizm. It’s possible that this year’s roster is closer to what he wants, but probably not close enough for much improvement. My projection is 2.66 wins.
WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS
Virtually every college football program is in a constant state of motion these days given the current landscape of the sport. Sometimes, though, there are some programs that appear to be more stable than others and Western Kentucky seems to be one of them. While the ceiling isn’t going to scrape the clouds, the floor is quite high in Bowling Green, where Tyson Helton has won at least eight games in six of his seven seasons. He’s won nine games four times in that span and has only missed a bowl game once and we can probably blame COVID for that.
While Helton has been a constant, his right-hand man on offense hasn’t been, and the Hilltoppers have a new OC this season in Bodie Reeder, who has run some pretty potent passing offenses, and seems to have a better fit here than his previous one at Middle Tennessee. If Reeder can get WKU back over 30 PPG, the consistent play from the defense will have the Hilltoppers poised for their first conference title since 2016.
How much will Rodney Tisdale improve?
Last season, QB Maverick McIvor and OC Rick Bowie were a package deal from Abilene Christian. McIvor did complete 67% of his passes, but had just a 12/7 TD/INT ratio, and wasn’t much of a runner, though the Hilltoppers did go up nearly 4.5 PPG year over year. Bowie was a one-and-done, so Reeder now has the keys to the offense and Tisdale, who took over for McIvor, is the man in the spotlight. He completed just under 66% of his passes with a 9/7 TD/INT ratio and had 2.1 yards per carry. The numbers weren’t great, but he was a true freshman and, while he has to learn a new playbook, he’s the most dynamic option on the roster. Florida State transfer Brock Glenn has a chance at a fresh start here if Tisdale falters or gets hurt.
How long does it take the offense to gel?
Not only are there questions about Tisdale and Reeder, but KD Hutchinson is the only returnee of consequence at the skill positions. Tulsa transfer Ajay Allen will likely lead the by-committee approach at RB that had decent returns last season. Georgia Tech transfer Zion Taylor is probably the most notable WR added to the mix, but Jyzaiah Rockwell was a 1,100-yard receiver at the FCS ranks last season. It should be noted that the offensive line, while a hodgepodge of transfers, has a lot more experience and size than last season’s group, including an Alabama transfer. If Tisdale can distribute the ball without turning it over and prove to be more of a running threat, this unit will be cooking with gas quickly.
Is the defense at risk of regressing?
Jaylen Lewis and Dave Herrard are really the only two returning contributors on defense, as DC Davis Merritt had a lot of scouting work to do. One silver lining is that only three players had 70+ tackles last season, as the Hilltoppers rotated a ton of guys in and out to try and stay fresh. Some of last season’s backups will elevate to starting roles and that means that they’ve been in the system and are familiar with the scheme. Merritt has been on the staff for the last three years, so everything is pretty ingrained with those who are back in the fold. Last year’s defense only had 19 sacks, though, but still allowed just 22.6 PPG, the fewest since 2019 when the Hilltoppers allowed just 20.1 PPG and just 3.7 yards per carry. Stopping the run was an issue last season that needs to be fixed this season and the low sack numbers and complete turnover with the front seven all have me pessimistic about the defense.
Western Kentucky 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 7.5 Wins
This is something of an alt win total because 6.5 is the prevailing number, but with very heavy Over vig. The tough part about this bet is that WKU may very well start 0-3, as they open the season a long way from home against Nevada before getting pummeled by Indiana and Georgia. But, the stage is set to go into the bye at 4-3. Four of the five toughest conference games come late in the year, when the growing pains may be a thing of the past. My projection is 7.2 wins.
