PAC-12 CONFERENCE OVERVIEW
It’s football season, yet the unveiling of a new-look Pac-12 Conference brings back memories of the late, great Bill Walton. The basketball legend and colorful broadcaster constantly touted the “conference of champions” due to the league’s impressive history of NCAA titles. Unfortunately, the schools responsible for almost all of those titles — Stanford, UCLA, USC, Cal, Oregon, Washington, Arizona and Arizona State — are long gone and spread to different conferences all over the map. Oregon State and Washington State, the league’s two leftovers, have been joined by a handful of newcomers from the Mountain West (Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State, Fresno State and Utah State) and a straggler from the Sun Belt (Texas State). The Pac-12 consists of only eight teams and all include the name “State.” The conference will not get an automatic qualifier into the College Football Playoff.
Boise State, which won the last three Mountain West championships, is listed by DraftKings as the +170 favorite to win the Pac-12. The Broncos could boast the conference’s top quarterback, Maddux Madsen, and top running back, Dylan Riley. San Diego State, the +370 second choice, went 9-4 last season and is led by workhorse running back Lucky Sutton.
The league does present a few intriguing teams beyond the Broncos and Aztecs. In his first season at Fresno State, coach Matt Entz won nine games. Watch out for Entz and the Bulldogs, and keep an eye on Colorado State with new coach Jim Mora Jr., who worked an incredible turnaround at UConn. Texas State arrives with quarterback Brad Jackson triggering an explosive passing attack.
The Pac-12 can make a statement, for better or worse, when Boise State opens its season at Oregon on Sept. 5. On the same day, Fresno State visits USC and Washington State plays at Washington. Other nonconference matchups to circle are San Diego State at UCLA (Sept. 12) and BYU at Colorado State (Sept. 19). In the biggest league games, Fresno hosts Boise on Oct. 10 and Boise hosts San Diego State on Nov. 21.
BOISE STATE BRONCOS
A decline is evident in the Boise State program, but it’s only a minor slip. The Broncos were a powerhouse two years ago, going 12-2 and reaching the College Football Playoff, so last season’s 9-5 finish was an obvious step back. The worst part was the bookend losses — 34-7 at South Florida in the season opener and 38-10 to Washington in the LA Bowl. Boise has been winning big for a long time under multiple head coaches, from Dirk Koetter to Dan Hawkins to Chris Petersen to Bryan Harsin and now Spencer Danielson, who guided the Broncos to three consecutive Mountain West championships. Danielson has a senior quarterback and an experienced team that deserves to be the Pac-12 favorite. A bigger, realistic goal is another CFP appearance.
Three Burning Questions
Is Maddux Madsen a good bet to bounce back?
A quarterback who’s named after a pair of Hall of Famers – pitcher Greg Maddux and shortstop Derek Jeter — is probably worth a bet. Maddux Jeter Madsen owns a 20-6 career record as the Broncos’ starter, but he battled injuries and played poorly at times last season. As a sophomore, Madsen completed 62.4% of his passes for 3,018 yards and 23 touchdowns with six interceptions. As a junior, his numbers dipped to 58.3% completions, 2,334 passing yards, 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He threw four interceptions in a 28-7 loss at Notre Dame, yet when healthier late in the season, he passed for three touchdowns to lead the Broncos to a 38-21 victory over UNLV in the MW title game.
Madsen was labeled as a game manager two years ago when star running back Ashton Jeanty carried the offense. Madsen is capable of more than he showed last season and Boise’s success will depend a lot on how he plays. He could be the top quarterback in the conference.
Will the running attack ground and pound defenses?
Dylan Riley didn’t fill Jeanty’s shoes, but he had a few flashes of brilliance, including a 201-yard rushing performance on only 15 carries in a 56-31 regular-season win over UNLV. Riley finished the season with 1,125 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. He will again be backed up by Sire Gaines, who ended the year with 811 rushing yards. The Riley-Gaines combo will make Madsen’s job easier and make the Boise offense tough to stop.
Danielson said he was disappointed the Broncos were not more physical on the offensive line last season and he expects that to change. Boise returns two of the league’s top linemen — senior guard Roger Carreon and senior tackle Daylon Metoyer — and welcomes the addition of senior tackle Tyler Ethridge, a transfer from Division II Colorado State-Pueblo. Left tackle Kage Casey moved on to the NFL’s Broncos as a fourth-round draft pick by Denver, but there is plenty of depth, experience and size on the line.
Is the defense strong enough to survive?
In 2024, Boise’s defense led the nation with 55 sacks, but that number dropped to 27 last season. Edge rusher Jayden Virgin-Morgan returns after leading the team with six sacks. While four of the top five tacklers from last season are gone, junior linebacker Boen Phelps and senior cornerback Jaden Mickey are experienced leaders on a defense that must improve after allowing 24 PPG. The Broncos have some questions to answer on this side of the ball.
Broncos Win Total Pick – Over 7.5
Aside from the season opener at Oregon, which is a 24.5-point favorite, every other game on the schedule is winnable for the Broncos. The toughest Pac-12 road tests will be at Fresno State and Washington State, but Boise gets a home date with San Diego State and should reach eight wins if Madsen stays healthy. The DraftKings line of 7.5 looks a tick low and the -135 price is fair to pay. It should be noted DraftKings is stipulating 11 games for this win total and excluding the “Flex Game” added to Pac-12 schedules at the end of November. Circa Sports includes the 12th flex game and offers 7.5 Over -180. Instead of locking in all of the final opponents, the league will adjust matchups to maximize bowl eligibility and CFP chances, and the final game will be designated as a non-conference rematch from earlier in the season.
COLORADO STATE RAMS
If Jim Mora Jr. turned around the Connecticut program — and he did by going 9-4 and 9-3 in his last two years — he certainly could do something similar at Colorado State. The change is unlikely to be sudden in Fort Collins because Mora must implement more than 60 new players on the roster, and he’s got some questions about the quarterback position. The Rams unraveled on the way to a 2-10 record that got Jay Norvell fired at midseason, and the situation is a complete rebuild. Mora brought several players and coaches with him from UConn, including offensive coordinator Pryce Tracy and co-defensive coordinator Kenny McClendon. After the magic he worked the past two years, it’s better to bet on Mora than against him.
Three Burning Questions
Who will win the starting quarterback job?
UConn transfer K’saan Farrar might figure to have the inside track due to his history with Mora. Farrar attempted 18 passes as a backup last season when the Huskies’ success had a lot to do with star quarterback Joe Fagnano, who finished with 28 touchdown passes and one interception. Still, Farrar could have a difficult time beating out Oklahoma State transfer Hauss Hejny, who was a higher-ranked recruit. Farrar and Hejny both have running ability, something Mora prefers in his quarterbacks. A media source has indicated Hejny has become the favorite to win the job.
Surrounding the QB will be senior running back Mel Brown, a UConn transfer, and Durell Robinson, an Auburn transfer. The top returning receiver is Tommy Maher, who had 32 receptions last year, but another key receiver is likely to be UConn transfer Jackson Harper. The go-to tight end probably will be (you guessed it) a UConn transfer, Juice Vereen. Mora will need to build the offensive line with transfers, a theme that holds true for the entire team.
Will the Rams’ rotten defense show significant improvement?
The easy answer is this defense will be improved, mostly because it can’t get much worse. Colorado State allowed 30.8 PPG to rank 112th in scoring and the rushing defense (205 yards per game) ranked 125th. This might be hard to believe, but a UConn transfer is expected to lead the unit. Oumar Diomande, a junior linebacker, ranked second for the Huskies in both tackles (116) and sacks (five). The defensive line and linebacker personnel look strong on paper. Kenny McClendon is serving as co-defensive coordinator with Tyson Summers, who was the DC under Norvell and took over as interim coach.
How quickly can Mora create a winning team?
Mora’s run as UCLA coach was nothing remarkable at the time. He went 46-30 from 2012 to 2017 before getting fired, but considering the Bruins’ struggles after his departure, maybe he performed better than perceived. It’s unrealistic to expect he can reach a bowl at Colorado State immediately. In his first two years at UConn, Mora’s teams finished 6-7 and 3-9. When he had time to build the roster and find the right quarterback, he started to win big. What’s often true with most new coaches is true here: Mora must find a quarterback who can make plays.
Rams Win Total Pick – Over 3.5
The Rams have the potential to be a surprise team in the Pac-12, a conference that appears to be full of mystery teams aside from favorite Boise State. Mora opens with a pair of home games he can win against Wyoming and Southern Utah. The third home game against BYU on Sept. 19 is one Colorado State is almost certain to lose. With Texas-San Antonio, Oregon State, Utah State and Washington State also on the schedule, it’s not a huge leap of faith to predict Mora will win four games or more this season. Bet on it. The Rams’ win total at Circa Sports is listed low at 3.5 and includes the 12th flex game, so play it Over -140. It would not be a big surprise if Mora gets this team to 6-6, especially if the quarterback play is impressive.
FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS
When projecting college football teams, it’s no secret the two most important positions of handicapping emphasis are the head coach and quarterback. Fresno State certainly has a winning coach. Matt Entz is about as good as it gets. Entz, 53, coached North Dakota State to two FCS national championships in five years and exited with a record of 60-11. In 2025, he took over a Fresno State team that went 6-7 the previous season and guided the Bulldogs to a 9-4 finish punctuated by a win in the Arizona Bowl. He’s got a new quarterback this season, and that position appears to be upgraded, so beware of the Bulldogs. Entz could be lifting Fresno to the top of the Pac-12.
Three Burning Questions
Will a Maryland transfer pass the test?
While the Bulldogs were good on the ground last season, they were limited by what quarterback EJ Warner could not do. Warner was an accurate passer, yet he didn’t have a big arm to stretch the field and finished with 2,030 passing yards, 13 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Entz brought in Maryland transfer Khristian Martin, who’s a dual-threat playmaker at 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds. Martin, a sophomore, is expected to win the job after battling with junior Jayden Mandal and freshman Deagan Rose. Four of the top five pass catchers are returning, including leading receiver Josiah Freeman, who had 52 receptions and six touchdowns. Martin’s impact will be a mystery, but he’s got the physical skills to make a major impact. He’s also got a solid support system with experienced running backs, receivers and offensive linemen.
Is the Fresno State offensive line the league’s strongest?
Entz builds winning teams by building a physical offensive line first. He’s got three of the top linemen in the league — tackles Brayden Walton and Rolan Fullwood and guard Edward Fonua — to anchor arguably the best and biggest line in the Pac-12. The line will pave the way for running backs Bryson Donelson and Rayshon “Speedy” Luke. Donelson and Luke combined for 1,302 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns last season. In a conference highlighted by running back talent — headlined by Boise State’s Dylan Riley and San Diego State’s Lucky Sutton — the Bulldogs could boast the most effective offense on the ground.
Are the Bulldogs a threat to USC and Boise State?
Fresno State is a 23.5-point underdog at USC in the Sept. 5 season opener, and that line is likely to get bet higher by kickoff because favorites typically draw action early in the season. But keep an eye on what could be a dangerous underdog. Entz will have his team well prepared, and Fresno’s physical offensive line could push around the Trojans up front. USC coach Lincoln Riley is known for fielding finesse teams that are not the most physical up front. The Bulldogs host Boise State on Oct. 10 in what could be the most important matchup of Pac-12 play. Entz coached Fresno, a 17-point underdog, to a 30-7 win at Boise last year. Entz is a bet-on coach and those are two games to circle and consider taking the points.
Bulldogs Win Total Pick – Over 6.5
After the trip to Los Angeles in early September, Fresno will have a realistic shot to reel off three consecutive wins against Sacramento State, San Jose State and Rice. The quarterback will be the key because if Martin matures quickly, the Bulldogs can win almost every game on their schedule. This team is solid in all areas and probably can win seven or eight games even with mediocre QB play. Fresno plays at San Diego State on Oct. 17 and is set to host the Aztecs in the “Flex Game” rematch on Nov. 28. The DraftKings win total, based on 11 games and excluding the flex spot, is 6.5 with Over offered at even money. Circa Sports offers the better bet — 6.5 Over -120 with the 12th flex game included. The coach is the key to this play. Entz won eight regular-season games in his Fresno debut. He’s got a better team now and the schedule is manageable. Bet on the Bulldogs being big overachievers.
OREGON STATE BEAVERS
Jonathan Smith had it rolling at Oregon State, posting 10 wins in 2022 and eight in 2023, but it seemed inevitable that he would leave for a big payday and he got it from Michigan State. Smith and the Beavers were better off together, as he was fired after two years in East Lansing and the Beavers went 7-17 the past two years. Trent Bray was dumped as coach after starting 0-7 last year and Oregon State finished 2-10. It’s time for a new era. JaMarcus Shephard takes over what will be one of the worst teams in the conference, and maybe the worst.
Three Burning Questions
Will a new coaching staff improve a vagabond QB?
Maalik Murphy was highly touted out of high school in the Los Angeles area and opted to leave home, picking Texas instead of UCLA. In two years with the Longhorns, he redshirted the first year and did not play because of injury and he appeared in seven games his second year while going 2-0 as a starter. Murphy transferred to Duke in 2024 and posted a 9-3 record as a starter while passing for 2,933 yards and 26 touchdowns. His play has not been that impressive to watch, however, and he declined last season with a bad Oregon State team. Murphy went 1-7 as the starter, passing for 1,805 yards and nine touchdowns with eight interceptions. Cornell Hatcher returns as the featured running back and Shephard brought receiver Aeryn Hampton as a transfer from Alabama. Murphy is not much of a running threat and turns the ball over too much, but he’s got a better coaching staff and supporting cast now, so expect to see significant improvement.
Is Shephard the right man for the job?
JaMarcus Shephard was hired away from Alabama, where he was offensive coordinator, and he’s got some history in the Pac-12. Shephard was on Kalen DeBoer’s coaching staff at Washington when the Huskies won the conference title. Shephard hired Mitch Dahlen as the Beavers’ offensive coordinator, and Dahlen was part of the Alabama and Washington staffs that developed star quarterbacks. The coaching staff appears to be a major upgrade, and a big part of that will be defensive coordinator Mike MacIntyre, who has had success at a variety of stops, including head coaching jobs at San Jose State, Colorado and Florida International. Don’t expect Shephard to replicate what Jonathan Smith did at Oregon State in terms of wins, but the Beavers should be more competitive during a rebuilding year.
Is the defense the key to Oregon State overachieving?
MacIntyre inherits some returning talent and has made some transfer additions, so there are signs the Beavers will be much better on defense after surrendering 29.4 PPG. Oregon State held Washington State to seven points in a late-season upset and showed improvement. The linebacker group will be a strength, led by senior Aiden Sullivan and former USC transfer Raesjon Davis. Sullivan is the team’s top returning tackler and should be one of the league’s best defensive players. Duquesne is not known for producing dominant defensive ends, yet that’s where Ish Findlayter comes from, and he’s bringing high expectations as a top transfer. The front seven looks solid for MacIntyre.
Beavers Win Total Pick – Under 3.5
It’s tempting to forecast Oregon State as a surprise team, with Murphy’s potential at quarterback and MacIntyre’s ability to build the defense. The new coaching staff will put the Beavers in position to win more games and they could get to four or five wins. However, there are way too many holes in the depth chart to be too optimistic, and games against Houston and Texas Tech to open the season will put the Beavers in a hole in early September. This decision on this win total will depend on some other mystery teams on the Pac-12 schedule. Is Oregon State good enough to beat Colorado State, Texas State, Utah State and Washington State? This is not a best bet by any means, so the lean is 3.5 Under +150 with Circa Sports offering a nice Under price on the 12-game line.
SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS
Sean Lewis predicted a quick turnaround when he took over a losing San Diego State team in 2024, but ugly losses piled up and he went 3-9. Lewis fulfilled his promise last season by posting a 9-4 record and reaching a bowl. The highlights were a 34-0 victory over California and a 17-7 win over Boise State. Lewis is an innovative offensive coach. He’s got to find the right quarterback to operate his system. The Aztecs are known for their tradition of tough defenses and stud running backs, and they definitely have the running back in place this season. The defense and quarterback play will determine San Diego State’s ceiling.
Three Burning Questions
Is Lucky Sutton the Aztecs’ next Marshall Faulk?
OK, so that’s a very unfair comparison and a sensationalized question considering Faulk is the program’s No. 2 all-time rusher, but Sutton is continuing the trend of dynamic running backs. He ran for 1,297 yards last season, including 150 against Boise State, to lead the Mountain West. Unlike Faulk, Sutton is not a receiving threat out of the backfield, but he’s a big back at 6-foot-1 and 225 pounds and handles a heavy workload. San Diego State must have an effective ground attack to complement a quarterback who needs the help. Sutton can be a star.
Will quarterback Jayden Denegal be the answer?
Lewis’ plans for a high-flying passing attack might not materialize. While Denegal is never going to remind San Diego football fans of Dan Fouts, he does have the potential to be much better. A shoulder injury that bothered Denegal last season is apparently repaired, so he should improve on modest numbers (58.8% completions, 1,807 passing yards, nine touchdowns and eight interceptions). The talent is there because Denegal is a former Michigan transfer who was a touted recruit. It certainly helps that the Aztecs’ top two receivers, Jordan Napier and Donovan Brown, are returning and Texas A&M transfer Jacob Bostick has been added. Aside from Denegal, the biggest question mark is an offensive line that must replace three starters.
Will a new-look defense still be elite?
The irony in San Diego State’s turnaround last season was that Lewis is an offensive-minded coach and it was the defense that led the way. The Aztecs ranked No. 6 in the nation in scoring defense at 15.4 PPG, in the same neighborhood with heavyweights Ohio State, Indiana, Miami and Texas Tech. The Aztecs pitched two shutouts and allowed more than 24 points in only three games. However, only two starters return, after last year’s unit returned 10 starters. The top player on that unit was corner Chris Johnson, a first-round pick (27th overall) by the Miami Dolphins. Johnson leaves a huge hole in the secondary, and the Aztecs will need several inexperienced players to grow up in a hurry.
Senior middle linebacker Tano Letuli, senior tackle Gavriel Lightfoot and sophomore cornerback Jamison Starks are expected to spearhead the revamped defense under new coordinator Demetrius Sumler. This defense will take some steps back.
Aztecs Win Total Pick – Under 7.5
It’s tough to be too optimistic about San Diego State when its quarterback is surrounded by questions and its defense is in rebuilding mode. Lewis is a good coach, but this season could turn out to be a disappointment and some regression seems imminent. The Portland State opener is the only spot on the schedule that should be a gimme putt. The Aztecs face road trips to UCLA, Toledo, Oregon State, Colorado State and Boise State and might not win more than one of those games. The rest of the home schedule (James Madison, Texas State, Fresno State, Washington State, Utah State) serves up no cupcakes. The DraftKings win total of 6.5 Under +125 is worth a play. DraftKings rules stipulate 11 games and exclude the “Flex Game” added to Pac-12 schedules on Nov. 28. Circa Sports has posted 7.5 Under -140 and includes the 12th flex game, which will be at Fresno, so that’s the better play.
TEXAS STATE BOBCATS
In three years with the Bobcats, G.J. Kinne has coached the team to records of 8-5, 8-5 and 7-6 and each season concluded with a bowl win. Kinne is a former college and NFL quarterback who’s known for creating prolific passing offenses. While the Sun Belt was a relatively soft conference, the move to the Pac-12 is not exactly a massive step up. Texas State is not on Boise State’s level yet, but it probably has the talent to hang with every other team in its new league. The Bobcats have an experienced quarterback who will put up big numbers and they have more than enough offensive firepower to find their way to another bowl game.
Three Burning Questions
Is Brad Jackson the best quarterback in the conference?
The numbers will point to Jackson as the marquee QB in the Pac-12. He completed 71.3% of his passes last season while totaling 3,224 yards and 21 touchdowns with seven interceptions. And there’s a lot more. Jackson also ran for 744 yards and 17 touchdowns. He’s only a sophomore. The Bobcats ranked 12th in the nation in scoring offense at 36.5 PPG and rolled up 472 yards per game to rank fifth nationally.
Texas State’s offense should cause nightmares for defensive coordinators. Not only is Jackson a dual threat, the Bobcats return two of the top receivers in the league — Beau Sparks (84 receptions for 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns) and Chris Dawn (65 receptions for 1,007 yards). The offensive line is inexperienced, but size matters and the linemen are big, highlighted by 6-foot-6, 375-pound right tackle William Boone, a North Carolina transfer.
Who likes high-scoring games and weak defenses?
The Pac-12 has been known for both throughout the years, so Texas State is a good fit for the conference. The Bobcats could be bad defensively, yet there is hope if a few key players — most notably senior end DonTerry Russell, a former Mississippi State transfer — step up to make an impact. Senior safety Ryan Nolan is among only four starters returning from a defense that allowed 164.8 rushing yards per game and 29 PPG. Look to bet Over the total in most Texas State games this season.
Is the coach a rising star in college football?
Kinne was a big-time passer at Tulsa, finishing his career with 9,472 yards and 81 touchdowns, but his playing career stalled at numerous pro stops. He was signed by the New York Jets as an undrafted free agent in 2012 and landed on NFL practice squads with the Eagles and Giants. He briefly played in the CFL and UFL before becoming a coach and learning under the likes of Gus Malzahn, Sonny Dykes and Chad Morris. In his first head coaching stop at Incarnate Word in 2022, he coached the Cardinals to a 12-2 record and was targeted by Texas State. In an era when innovative offensive coaches are in high demand, Kinne will likely become a hot candidate for bigger jobs in the future. Texas State’s high-powered offense this season will help his rise.
Bobcats Win Total Pick – Over 6.5
Texas State is a 30.5-point underdog at Texas on Sept. 5, when Jackson will go head-to-head with Heisman Trophy contender Arch Manning. Jackson could put up bigger numbers than Manning in that game and for the season. The schedule is not easy and also includes road games against Pac-12 favorites Boise State and San Diego State. The Bobcats figure to be favored in at least six of their seven home games, and they have winnable road dates with Colorado State and Oregon State. With Circa Sports setting the 12-game win total at 6.5, look Over and expect a 7-5 or 8-4 finish. The defense is definitely a concern, but Jackson is a rising star, and the offense will be too hot for most Pac-12 defenses to handle.
UTAH STATE AGGIES
After 11 years and 99 wins at Brigham Young, Bronco Mendenhall decided to take his coaching show on the road. Utah State is his third stop since leaving Provo in 2015, and he has had a losing record since ditching BYU. He went 36-38 in six seasons at Virginia, 5-7 in one year at New Mexico and 6-7 last year with the Aggies. Utah State was close to a much better finish in Mendenhall’s first season, losing 29-26 at UNLV and 25-24 to Boise State late in the year. While the Broncos and Rebels played for the Mountain West championship, the Aggies went on to lose the Idaho Potato Bowl. Mendenhall must replace a veteran quarterback, and he has settled on another veteran to lead the team into the Pac-12.
Three Burning Questions
How different will the offense look with a new quarterback?
Bryson Barnes was a dual-threat weapon for the Aggies while leading the team in rushing (740 yards and 10 touchdowns) and passing for 2,803 yards and 18 touchdowns. McCae Hillstead, a backup at BYU a year ago, won Utah State’s starting job in the spring. Hillstead is a familiar face because he actually started four games for the Aggies in 2023. He’s also a running threat. Offensive coordinator Robert Anae is known for aerial attacks, but the ground game will be emphasized more with senior Javen Jacobs returning as the featured back behind Hillstead. The interior line is manned by veterans and appears to be solid. The offense was potent (30.9 PPG) with Barnes running it and the numbers will likely decline a little. Hillstead obviously has big shoes to fill.
Will Bronco build a better defense?
Utah State allowed 28.7 PPG last season — surrendering 55 points in a loss at Vanderbilt and 44 each in losses at Texas A&M and Hawaii. There were positive signs late in the season, however, and one was in Mendenhall’s best win, 28-17 at Fresno State. Two of the top three tacklers are returning, including senior safety Brevin Hamblin (114 tackles). The leader of this defense could be well-traveled linebacker Harrison Taggart, who previously played at Oregon, BYU and California. Mendenhall was known for producing strong defenses at BYU, but his reputation on that side of the ball has faded the past few years. The Aggies will be better defensively, but it’s tough to say how much better.
Is the road schedule too challenging to overcome?
The Aggies should be 2-2 after four games, assuming they handle home games against Idaho State and Troy. The major problems Mendenhall faces will be away from home because Utah State plays at Washington and Utah in the first month in addition to Pac-12 road games against Boise State, San Diego State and Texas State. Utah State has a 1-15 record against Utah in the Beehive Boot rivalry since 1998. The road schedule stacks the odds against the Aggies returning to a bowl.
Aggies Win Total Pick – Over 4.5
The call here will be for five wins, but it’s a lean and not a bet. The Circa Sports line of 4.5 Over -160 is priced right as the Aggies appear headed for 5-7 or 4-8. The prediction for five is simply giving Mendenhall the benefit of the doubt. Barnes was a big-time playmaker and Hillstead has not played enough for anyone to know if he can handle the quarterback job at a high level. The key to Utah State’s win total will be its back-to-back home games against Colorado State and Fresno State in the second half of the season, and if the Aggies split those games, they will likely get to five wins. In the future, Mendenhall would be wise to set up a softer nonconference schedule. Indiana’s Curt Cignetti is scheduling cupcakes outside of Big Ten play, for example, while Utah State is lining up Utah and Washington on the road.
WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS
In 2022, a quarterback from Incarnate Word, an FCS program in San Antonio, transferred to Washington State. Cam Ward had put up huge passing numbers in two years at a lower level and proceeded to develop into the real deal in two seasons with the Cougars. He eventually was the first overall pick of the 2025 NFL Draft by the Tennessee Titans. That recent history lesson is relevant because Washington State is now bringing in another FCS quarterback to revive its offense. Caden Pinnick arrives from UC Davis and his play will go a long way in determining how successful new coach Kirby Moore will be in his first season in Pullman.
Three Burning Questions
Will the Cougars’ new coach bring Moore or less?
As offensive coordinator at Missouri the past three years, Kirby Moore designed dynamic offenses around dual-threat quarterbacks. He is Washington State’s third coach in three years, following Jake Dickert (2024) and Jimmy Rogers (2025). Dickert moved on to Wake Forest, and Rogers took the Iowa State job while also taking several players with him. The Cougars went a combined 15-11 the past two years and still have talent in the program, but Moore had to hit the transfer portal to replenish the roster and found a promising dual-threat quarterback to help the transition. It’s doubtful Washington State will achieve a third straight winning season while rebuilding, so expect less from Moore’s first season.
Is the sky the limit for Caden Pinnick?
At UC Davis, Pinnick was voted Big Sky Freshman of the Year after passing for 3,206 yards and 32 touchdowns while also rushing for 437 yards. The 6-footer completed 70% of his passes and his running ability excites Moore, who outrecruited Colorado to get the quarterback he coveted. Pinnick led UC Davis to nine wins and a spot in the FCS playoffs. The Cougars’ top receiver, senior speedster Tony Freeman, returns along with leading rusher Kirby Vorhees. Freeman had 54 receptions and Vorhees, who transferred from South Dakota State prior to last season, had 576 yards and five touchdowns. The offense brings back a few experienced players, including senior tackle Ashton Tripp, and welcomes Florida transfer receiver Tank Hawkins. The offense will be the obvious strength of the team with Moore designing the plays and Pinnick, Vorhees and Freeman doing a majority of the playmaking.
Will a defense with no returning starters be a disaster?
Blowout losses to North Texas and Washington aside, Washington State was mostly outstanding on defense a year ago while allowing 20.2 PPG to rank 27th in the nation. New coordinator Trent Bray, the former head coach at Oregon State, will need to work miracles to make the Cougars competitive on the defensive side. Senior end Linus Zunk transferred from Vanderbilt and senior corner Jalil Tucker transferred from Oregon as Bray combed the portal to find pieces to the puzzle. Senior linebacker Keith Brown, a former Oregon transfer who missed last season with an arm injury, will be another key player. Bray was a good hire, but this defense has a long way to go, and the Cougars could get into many high-scoring games.
Cougars Win Total Pick – Under 4.5
Back-to-back road games against Washington and Kansas State to open the season will likely leave the Cougars 0-2 before they get a breather against Duquesne. Next up will be home games against Arizona and Fresno State, which could be the Pac-12’s second-best team. While it’s not impossible to find five potential wins on the schedule, it’s highly unlikely. With a new team, new coaching staff and difficult schedule, Washington State is probably headed for 4-8 or worse, and the Circa Sports win total of 4.5 Under +130 is the play. The Cougars will face Oregon State twice, including the 12th flex game in late November, and figure to get a split. The offense has the potential to be entertaining with Pinnick pulling the trigger, but the defense appears to be nowhere near as strong as it was last year and that’s a real problem.
