Detailing How College Football Strength Ratings are Created:
After this past week’s games ended, I took the time to do a full data update in college football, taking into account only this season’s games, and you should notice some massive differences on my College Football Power Ratings Page. Up until this point, I have incorporated a process in the first few weeks where I’m simply making adjustments to teams’ numbers last season based on what I’ve seen. The new numbers are quite revealing, and I’d like to share them with readers, pointing out things that may reveal teams that could be better or worse than perception. If you’ve seen some of Bill Adee’s recent VSiN morning newsletters, you probably know that I have four, well, five actually, different sets of ratings. I will share some key details on all of those, and explain the fifth rating, using it to determine some potential value on the Week 4 betting board. Let’s get right into it.
Power Ratings
My Power Ratings aren’t much different from anything you see out in the betting market. They are simply a numerical value given to each team, indicating how they compare to all the other teams. Each rating point theoretically represents one point on a scoreboard, and you can create a theoretical neutral game line between two teams by simply comparing the numbers. My current power ratings find Georgia on top after the big win at Knoxville this past Saturday. The Bulldogs have a PR of 67.5, which is low for a top team by my standards. There are also five other teams within two points of that top spot. Not coincidentally, those top six are all SEC and Big Ten teams. The first team beyond those two conferences you’ll find is Miami (FL), at 63.5. There are seven other teams with an SMPR of 60 or better. The closeness at the top sets up for what could be a fantastic run to the CFP. If you’re wondering, the highest team on my POWER RATINGS from the Group of 5 is Boise State, 19 points below Georgia. The highest FCS team is North Dakota State, at 48. The lowest rated Power 4 team is Stanford at 35, although the Cardinal come off a big home upset of Boston College. The lowest Group of 5 team is Kent State, who almost pulled off a nice upset of their own, losing late to Buffalo last Saturday.
Effective Strength Ratings
The early part of the college football season can prove difficult for many bettors, since most of the games played through this point have been non-conference matchups, and it’s a challenge to weigh teams’ schedule strengths against their raw stats to gauge overall strength. At this point, most Group of 5 teams have played tougher schedules against the Power 4 foes and vice versa, with just some select premium non-conference and conference games sprinkled in. For instance, we know that teams like Penn State and Oregon have beaten up on some inferior opponents so far, while those like LSU and Miami (FL) have been challenged by stiffer slates. But now with conference play starting in earnest, how will these teams stack up? Do the experts have their strength levels gauged properly? These are just some of the tough questions facing betters right now.
Fortunately, I have statistical measures I use to calculate the actual strength of teams against the level of opponents they have played. These are called my EFFECTIVE STATS, and they would be described as similar to the popular DVOR ratings or the RPI numbers in college basketball. I use these Effective Stats to help determine my overall Power Ratings and the other key indicators.
After running the first few weeks of data, I have found that Oregon is the highest performing team against its schedule according to my Effective Strength Ratings. The Ducks boast an ESR or +53.4, which if you were to equate that to my power ratings scale, would be an 81.5, 15 points more than their actual PR. Next is Florida State at +50.8, followed by a team FSU beat, Alabama, at +42.6. All of these teams, plus USC at #4 with +41.5 have performed theoretically better on the field than their PR’s, or even market perception, indicates. Add Indiana, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and BYU to the rest of the top 10 in this key stat metric as teams perhaps underrated at this point. Of the top nine teams in ESR, the only one who may be lesser than its current power rating indicates, in Ohio State.
Looking deeper down the list for Effective Strength, you’ll find current highly AP-ranked teams like Miami (FL), Penn State, and Illinois in the high teens for ESR. This is something to watch. In fact, the ESR can be treated just like a power rating point in that each point represents a point on a line. Specifically looking at the Illini, with an ESR of +33.6, they are still 5.3 points worse than their upcoming opponent Indiana in that regard right now. With the Hoosiers boasting about a 3-point home field advantage, this would suggest that by the ESR’s, Indiana should be about an 8.3-point favorite for Saturday’s matchup in Bloomington.
Other teams that might be better than perceived right now, according to the ESR’s are Nebraska, Washington, Vanderbilt, and Arizona.
The highest rated G5 team in Effective Strength right now is North Texas, with a value of +31.4. That is 27th in the country overall and +0.2 points ahead of Georgia! At the FCS level, North Dakota State is back at its customary spot at the top, with a +27.6, 5.1 points better than Tarleton State.
Bettors’ Ratings
My Bettors’ Ratings are a quantitative value derived from the lines teams have played at in recent games against their schedule strength. In other words, they serve as indicators of how the betting markets perceive the strengths of the teams. With that in mind, the team the market gauges the top one in college football right now is still Texas, the #1 ranked team at the outset of the season in the polls. This is not a surprise, as the Longhorns appeared to be overrated in their season-opening loss to Ohio State and have laid huge numbers since. The Longhorns’ BR of -39.1 indicates that they would be a 39-point favorite over the average college football team (FBS & FCS) on a neutral field. The other teams rounding out the top 5 in terms of Bettors’ Ratings are Penn State, Georgia, Notre Dame, and Alabama. Clemson checks in at #7 on this list, making it interesting that two teams with multiple losses already are still rated very highly by the markets.
To be perfectly honest with you, I don’t personally tend to use these Bettors’ Ratings much for anything other than perhaps market fade or entertainment value. They tend to be reflective of highly public thinking, and from the work I do on the DraftKings Betting Splits Systems across the varied sports, you know that I am not a big fan of getting behind the public in my own betting.
If you’re looking for other teams the markets may be late in embracing, consider Vanderbilt, Virginia, Utah, or Miami (FL). On the opposite side of the coin, don’t fall for the betting public’s love of UCLA, Kansas State, Virginia Tech, or Duke. These teams have proven to be far worse on the field than they were in the preseason publications.
Recent Ratings
My Recent Ratings will take on more value as the season wears on. For now, these are a reflection of the Effective Strength Ratings and they take on the same format of one rating point equaling one point on a line. You will start to notice the differences next week. I only included this introduction in this piece to show you that this is another one of my ratings sets.
Schedule Strength
I don’t include Schedule Strength among my key sets of strength ratings that I use to evaluate teams directly, although they do factor significantly into the formulation of those ratings. However, they are always an interesting point of discussion. In looking at the first few weeks of the season, the team that has played the toughest schedule to date is actually Grambling, out of the SWAC. Notre Dame, with its two losses to Miami (FL) and Texas A&M, has faced the tough slate among the FBS teams. South Florida is very close, however, having already taken on Boise State, Florida, and Miami (FL) in going 2-1.
On the opposite side of the equation, Texas Tech has played the easiest slate among FBS teams, but to be fair, the Red Raiders have throttled the competition so far, thus making it difficult to gauge whether or not they will be ready for their trip to Utah this week. Navy, UCF, and BYU are other FBS teams that have not really challenged themselves to date.
Effective Play-by-Play Strength
The Effective Strength Ratings I described earlier simply take into account scoring stats, but as we all know, there are a lot of things that can happen on the field that can lead to teams being inaccurately evaluated. Among them are turnovers, penalties, third or fourth down success, decisions made when games are out of hand, etc. Because of that, for the purposes of the rest of this article, what I am going to be determining and sharing with you are the teams whose current EFFECTIVE YARDS PER PLAY (EYYP) stats signify that they might be significantly better or worse than the current perception of them. I believe this is a good way to find over- and underrated teams to take advantage of in the next few games. I will also be using a formula for comparing the teams in this week’s games by their EYPP numbers to see if there might be any point spread value.
What I’ve done is taken the Effective Offensive/Defensive Yards Per Play figures I first ran for the 2025 season on Sunday and assigned them an equivalent power rating on the scale I currently use. I then took these EYPP Equivalent Ratings and compared them to my current Power Ratings, which are based heavily upon betting markets and perception.
The assumption being made is that if the Effective Yards Per Play Equivalent Rating is higher than the average SM power rating, that team is playing better currently than its perceived strength, and vice versa.
Currently, USC is the team rated best on a play-by-play basis using the formula I have in place. The Trojans’ equivalent PR in that regard would be 77.9, 19 points better than their actual power rating and 2.5 points better than the team next line, Oregon. Florida State and Ohio State are the only other teams above 70.
You’ll see below that USC enjoys the biggest EYPP edge this week over its upcoming opponent (Michigan State) in regard to how their ratings compare to the actual point spread.
However, these other four teams have Effective Yards per Play equivalent power ratings at least 18 points better than their perceived strength and are above USC in that regard. These teams could rightfully be considered “underrated” at this point.
1. OLD DOMINION – Differential: +29.3
SM PR: 40.5
Effective YPP Power Rating: 69.8
2. MIAMI (OH) – Differential: +25.8
SM PR: 33
Effective YPP Power Rating: 58.8
3. CINCINNATI – Differential: +19.6
SM PR: 46.5
Effective YPP Power Rating: 66.1
4. FLORIDA STATE – Differential: +18.6
SM PR: 53
Effective YPP Power Rating: 71.6
Alternatively, these are five Teams with Effective Yards per Play equivalent power ratings at least 17 points worse than their perceived strength. Theoretically, these teams would be considered potentially overrated.
1. RUTGERS – Differential: -28.8
SM PR: 50
Effective YPP Power Rating: 21.2
2. OKLAHOMA STATE – Differential: -23.7
SM PR: 36.5
Effective YPP Power Rating: 12.8
3. GEORGIA – Differential: -22.5
SM PR: 67.5
Effective YPP Power Rating: 45
4. AIR FORCE – Differential: -17.5
SM PR: 35
Effective YPP Power Rating: 17.5
5. VIRGINIA TECH – Differential: -17.2
SM PR: 42
Effective YPP Power Rating: 24.8
Comparing the EYPP equivalent ratings to the actual Week 4 lines:
For actionable items, here are the top 15 games for this weekend, based on the differential of EYPP ratings versus actual point spreads, with home-field advantage factored into the differences. Track these games to see how they fare, or back them already if you agree with the logic.
1. (361) MICHIGAN STATE at (362) USC
Actual Line: USC -16.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: USC -45.7
Difference: 29.2, Favors – USC
2. (319) UNLV at (320) MIAMI (OH)
Actual Line: MIAMI (OH) +3.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: MIAMI (OH) -24.9
Difference: 28.4, Favors – MIAMI (OH)
3. (305) TULSA at (306) OKLAHOMA STATE
Actual Line: OKLAHOMA STATE -12.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: OKLAHOMA STATE +15.7
Difference: 28.2, Favors – TULSA
4. (399) LA MONROE at (400) UTEP
Actual Line: UTEP -4
Effective Yards per Play Line: UTEP -25.6
Difference: 21.6, Favors – UTEP
5. (331) NC STATE at (332) DUKE
Actual Line: DUKE -2.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: DUKE -18.9
Difference: 16.4, Favors – DUKE
6. (309) NORTH TEXAS at (310) ARMY
Actual Line: ARMY -1.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: ARMY +13.1
Difference: 14.6, Favors – NORTH TEXAS
7. (307) IOWA at (308) RUTGERS
Actual Line: RUTGERS +2.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: RUTGERS +16.8
Difference: 14.3, Favors – IOWA
8. (317) NORTH CAROLINA at (318) UCF
Actual Line: UCF -6.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: UCF -20.7
Difference: 14.2, Favors – UCF
9. (325) BOWLING GREEN at (326) LOUISVILLE
Actual Line: LOUISVILLE -26.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: LOUISVILLE -40.8
Difference: 14.3, Favors – LOUISVILLE
10. (381) ARKANSAS STATE at (382) KENNESAW STATE
Actual Line: KENNESAW STATE +6.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: KENNESAW STATE -7.6
Difference: 14.1, Favors – KENNESAW STATE
11. (385) NEVADA at (386) WESTERN KENTUCKY
Actual Line: WESTERN KENTUCKY -10
Effective Yards per Play Line: WESTERN KENTUCKY +4.1
Difference: 14.1, Favors – NEVADA
12. (387) BOISE STATE at (388) AIR FORCE
Actual Line: AIR FORCE +9.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: AIR FORCE +22.4
Difference: 12.9, Favors – BOISE STATE
13. (347) WYOMING at (348) COLORADO
Actual Line: COLORADO -12.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: COLORADO +0.4
Difference: 12.9, Favors – WYOMING
14. (333) KENT STATE at (334) FLORIDA STATE
Actual Line: FLORIDA STATE -43.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: FLORIDA STATE -56.3
Difference: 12.8, Favors – FLORIDA STATE
15. (329) ILLINOIS at (330) INDIANA
Actual Line: INDIANA -4
Effective Yards per Play Line: INDIANA -16.4
Difference: 12.4, Favors – INDIANA
