Effective College Football Play-by-Play Ratings for Week 10:
Once again, I’m publishing the full list of Week 10 games in this week’s Effective Play-by-Play Ratings article. However, you’ll only see the full-season format as the recent-trend forecast model didn’t provide any advantage in the last few weeks. In fact, the full-season metrics finished 28-27-1 ATS against final lines last week, the fifth straight winning week, while the forecast metrics went just 24-31-1 ATS. The four-week record of the full-season model is 124-101-1 ATS (55.1%), which is a pretty solid return for a math model in college football betting.
As a quick reminder, Effective Play-by-Play Ratings differ from my Effective Strength Ratings. Rather than simply gauging the end result, they evaluate a team’s performance across all scrimmage plays. Both models account for each team’s schedule to date.
Some prefer this approach to traditional power ratings based on scoring because the latter can be skewed by fluky plays, turnovers, fourth-down conversions, and other factors. Both methods have value, and combining different measures of team strength may be the best approach. Personally, I believe Effective Play-by-Play Ratings may offer a more accurate picture of team strength because they draw on a much larger data sample. That’s particularly useful in college football, where talent disparities between teams can be enormous.
All the strength ratings discussed here are adjusted for schedule strength, account for games that became noncompetitive late and include relevant injury adjustments.
As usual, the games are listed by the discrepancy between the full-season Effective Play-by-Play line and the actual line.
One final note: Yes, I realize no sane oddsmaker would ever make South Carolina a 22+ point favorite over Texas A&M. This is purely a mathematical model based on effective yards-per-play statistics, incorporating raw play-by-play stats and opponent strength. In some cases, the results look “ridiculous,” as some people on X have proclaimed.
In the end, it doesn’t matter whether the edge is 20 points or 0.1 points. It’s still an “edge” against the number, and I count them all the same. As noted above, the model has a 55.1% success rate. Use at your discretion.
(395) TEXAS A&M at (396) SOUTH CAROLINA
Actual Line: SOUTH CAROLINA -7
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SOUTH CAROLINA -22.4
Difference: 15.4 – Favors: SOUTH CAROLINA
(317) VIRGINIA TECH at (318) SMU
Actual Line: SMU -6
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SMU -20.8
Difference: 14.8 – Favors: SMU
(335) UCLA at (336) MINNESOTA
Actual Line: MINNESOTA 5.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MINNESOTA 19.4
Difference: 13.9 – Favors: UCLA
(367) HAWAII at (368) UTEP
Actual Line: UTEP 9.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: UTEP -3.6
Difference: 13.1 – Favors: UTEP
(301) BUFFALO at (302) MIAMI OHIO
Actual Line: MIAMI OHIO -6
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MIAMI OHIO -18.5
Difference: 12.5 – Favors: MIAMI OHIO
(349) LOUISVILLE at (350) GEORGIA TECH
Actual Line: GEORGIA TECH 14.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: GEORGIA TECH 26.7
Difference: 12.2 – Favors: LOUISVILLE
(313) TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO at (314) FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Actual Line: FLORIDA ATLANTIC 7
Effective Play-by-Play Line: FLORIDA ATLANTIC 17.8
Difference: 10.8 – Favors: TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO
(305) CENTRAL MICHIGAN at (306) EASTERN MICHIGAN
Actual Line: EASTERN MICHIGAN -1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: EASTERN MICHIGAN 9.2
Difference: 10.7 – Favors: CENTRAL MICHIGAN
(411) KENTUCKY at (412) TENNESSEE
Actual Line: TENNESSEE -6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TENNESSEE 3.9
Difference: 10.4 – Favors: KENTUCKY
(357) CINCINNATI at (358) HOUSTON
Actual Line: HOUSTON -11.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: HOUSTON -1.2
Difference: 10.3 – Favors: CINCINNATI
(421) FRESNO STATE at (422) UTAH STATE
Actual Line: UTAH STATE 2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: UTAH STATE -6.9
Difference: 9.4 – Favors: UTAH STATE
(391) VANDERBILT at (392) MISSISSIPPI STATE
Actual Line: MISSISSIPPI STATE -3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MISSISSIPPI STATE -12.2
Difference: 9.2 – Favors: MISSISSIPPI STATE
(337) MARSHALL at (338) GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Actual Line: GEORGIA SOUTHERN -10.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: GEORGIA SOUTHERN -19.4
Difference: 8.9 – Favors: GEORGIA SOUTHERN
(385) OREGON at (386) OHIO STATE
Actual Line: OHIO STATE -7
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OHIO STATE -15
Difference: 8 – Favors: OHIO STATE
(387) SOUTH ALABAMA at (388) LOUISIANA
Actual Line: LOUISIANA -8.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: LOUISIANA -16
Difference: 7.5 – Favors: LOUISIANA
(307) BALL STATE at (308) MASSACHUSETTS
Actual Line: MASSACHUSETTS -3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MASSACHUSETTS -10.4
Difference: 7.4 – Favors: MASSACHUSETTS
(309) TOLEDO at (310) SACRAMENTO STATE
Actual Line: SACRAMENTO STATE 25.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SACRAMENTO STATE 32.4
Difference: 6.9 – Favors: TOLEDO
(347) CLEMSON at (348) SYRACUSE
Actual Line: SYRACUSE 2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SYRACUSE -4.2
Difference: 6.7 – Favors: SYRACUSE
(363) ARKANSAS at (364) AUBURN
Actual Line: AUBURN -10.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: AUBURN -17
Difference: 6.5 – Favors: AUBURN
(379) GEORGIA at (380) OLE MISS
Actual Line: OLE MISS 3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OLE MISS 9.5
Difference: 6 – Favors: GEORGIA
(389) TULSA at (390) TULANE
Actual Line: TULANE 1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TULANE -4.3
Difference: 5.8 – Favors: TULANE
(409) LIBERTY at (410) NEW MEXICO STATE
Actual Line: NEW MEXICO STATE 16.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NEW MEXICO STATE 10.8
Difference: 5.7 – Favors: NEW MEXICO STATE
(323) NEW MEXICO at (324) NEVADA
Actual Line: NEVADA 9.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NEVADA 4
Difference: 5.5 – Favors: NEVADA
(397) ALABAMA at (398) LSU
Actual Line: LSU -5.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: LSU 0
Difference: 5.5 – Favors: ALABAMA
(303) OHIO U at (304) AKRON
Actual Line: AKRON 14
Effective Play-by-Play Line: AKRON 8.5
Difference: 5.5 – Favors: AKRON
(315) JAMES MADISON at (316) SOUTHERN MISS
Actual Line: SOUTHERN MISS 14.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SOUTHERN MISS 9.3
Difference: 5.2 – Favors: SOUTHERN MISS
(417) AIR FORCE at (418) ARMY
Actual Line: ARMY -3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ARMY -8.2
Difference: 5.2 – Favors: ARMY
(381) OKLAHOMA at (382) FLORIDA
Actual Line: FLORIDA -6
Effective Play-by-Play Line: FLORIDA -11
Difference: 5 – Favors: FLORIDA
(371) DELAWARE at (372) KENNESAW STATE
Actual Line: KENNESAW STATE 2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: KENNESAW STATE -2.4
Difference: 4.9 – Favors: KENNESAW STATE
(369) BYU at (370) UTAH
Actual Line: UTAH -5.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: UTAH -0.6
Difference: 4.9 – Favors: BYU
(327) UCF at (328) KANSAS
Actual Line: KANSAS -2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: KANSAS -7.3
Difference: 4.8 – Favors: KANSAS
(419) MIAMI FL at (420) NOTRE DAME
Actual Line: NOTRE DAME -5.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NOTRE DAME -0.9
Difference: 4.6 – Favors: MIAMI FL
(319) SOUTH FLORIDA at (320) EAST CAROLINA
Actual Line: EAST CAROLINA -1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: EAST CAROLINA -6
Difference: 4.5 – Favors: EAST CAROLINA
(355) OKLAHOMA STATE at (356) KANSAS STATE
Actual Line: KANSAS STATE 4.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: KANSAS STATE 8.5
Difference: 4 – Favors: OKLAHOMA STATE
(321) NEBRASKA at (322) ILLINOIS
Actual Line: ILLINOIS 4.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ILLINOIS 0.5
Difference: 4 – Favors: ILLINOIS
(413) BOISE STATE at (414) COLORADO STATE
Actual Line: COLORADO STATE 17.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: COLORADO STATE 13.6
Difference: 3.9 – Favors: COLORADO STATE
(353) IOWA at (354) NORTHWESTERN
Actual Line: NORTHWESTERN -2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NORTHWESTERN 1.3
Difference: 3.8 – Favors: IOWA
(399) CHARLOTTE at (400) UAB
Actual Line: UAB -10
Effective Play-by-Play Line: UAB -6.2
Difference: 3.8 – Favors: CHARLOTTE
(405) MISSOURI STATE at (406) FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Actual Line: FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL -4.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL -0.8
Difference: 3.7 – Favors: MISSOURI STATE
(339) GEORGIA STATE at (340) APPALACHIAN STATE
Actual Line: APPALACHIAN STATE -5.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: APPALACHIAN STATE -1.8
Difference: 3.7 – Favors: GEORGIA STATE
(361) IOWA STATE at (362) BAYLOR
Actual Line: BAYLOR -10
Effective Play-by-Play Line: BAYLOR -6.5
Difference: 3.5 – Favors: IOWA STATE
(365) COLORADO at (366) ARIZONA STATE
Actual Line: ARIZONA STATE -3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ARIZONA STATE 0.4
Difference: 3.4 – Favors: COLORADO
(333) MARYLAND at (334) PURDUE
Actual Line: PURDUE -6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: PURDUE -3.3
Difference: 3.2 – Favors: MARYLAND
(415) SAM HOUSTON STATE at (416) JACKSONVILLE STATE
Actual Line: JACKSONVILLE STATE -16.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: JACKSONVILLE STATE -13.4
Difference: 3.1 – Favors: SAM HOUSTON STATE
(403) TEMPLE at (404) NAVY
Actual Line: NAVY -7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NAVY -4.6
Difference: 2.9 – Favors: TEMPLE
(375) PENN STATE at (376) WASHINGTON
Actual Line: WASHINGTON -2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WASHINGTON 0.4
Difference: 2.9 – Favors: PENN STATE
(407) LOUISIANA TECH at (408) TROY
Actual Line: TROY 4.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TROY 6.9
Difference: 2.4 – Favors: LOUISIANA TECH
(351) DUKE at (352) NC STATE
Actual Line: NC STATE 4.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NC STATE 6.9
Difference: 2.4 – Favors: DUKE
(345) OLD DOMINION at (346) COASTAL CAROLINA
Actual Line: COASTAL CAROLINA -7
Effective Play-by-Play Line: COASTAL CAROLINA -5
Difference: 2 – Favors: OLD DOMINION
(359) RUTGERS at (360) WISCONSIN
Actual Line: WISCONSIN -17.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WISCONSIN -19.3
Difference: 1.8 – Favors: WISCONSIN
(423) TEXAS STATE at (424) OREGON STATE
Actual Line: OREGON STATE -6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OREGON STATE -5
Difference: 1.5 – Favors: TEXAS STATE
(329) NORTH CAROLINA at (330) CONNECTICUT
Actual Line: CONNECTICUT 7
Effective Play-by-Play Line: CONNECTICUT 8.5
Difference: 1.5 – Favors: NORTH CAROLINA
(401) WESTERN KENTUCKY at (402) MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE
Actual Line: MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE -1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE -0.2
Difference: 1.3 – Favors: WESTERN KENTUCKY
(373) NORTHERN ILLINOIS at (374) SAN JOSE STATE
Actual Line: SAN JOSE STATE -10
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SAN JOSE STATE -8.8
Difference: 1.2 – Favors: NORTHERN ILLINOIS
(331) FLORIDA STATE at (332) BOSTON COLLEGE
Actual Line: BOSTON COLLEGE 6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: BOSTON COLLEGE 5.3
Difference: 1.2 – Favors: BOSTON COLLEGE
(341) MICHIGAN STATE at (342) MICHIGAN
Actual Line: MICHIGAN -13.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MICHIGAN -14.6
Difference: 1.1 – Favors: MICHIGAN
(377) LOUISIANA-MONROE at (378) ARKANSAS STATE
Actual Line: ARKANSAS STATE -14.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ARKANSAS STATE -13.5
Difference: 1 – Favors: LOUISIANA-MONROE
(383) WEST VIRGINIA at (384) TEXAS TECH
Actual Line: TEXAS TECH -16.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TEXAS TECH -17.4
Difference: 0.9 – Favors: TEXAS TECH
(325) TCU at (326) ARIZONA
Actual Line: ARIZONA -8.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ARIZONA -9.4
Difference: 0.9 – Favors: ARIZONA
(425) WYOMING at (426) UNLV
Actual Line: UNLV -6
Effective Play-by-Play Line: UNLV -6.8
Difference: 0.8 – Favors: UNLV
(343) TEXAS at (344) MISSOURI
Actual Line: MISSOURI 2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MISSOURI 3.2
Difference: 0.7 – Favors: TEXAS
(393) RICE at (394) NORTH TEXAS
Actual Line: NORTH TEXAS -16.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NORTH TEXAS -17.1
Difference: 0.6 – Favors: NORTH TEXAS
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