The first College Football Playoff rankings have been the topic of conversation this week, but don’t let those or any of the inane banter about them cloud your mind from a handicapping standpoint. At this point, they largely don’t matter, nor are they good indicators of how a team should be rated. I’m not saying that my power ratings or Steve Makinen’s college football power ratings should be treated as gospel, but Indiana is No. 4 in the CFP Rankings and both Steve and I have them ranked ninth. Miami is No. 1 and would be an underdog on a neutral field to four teams for me and three for Steve.
If anything, they’re a good fade tool at this time of the year, since recreational, less-informed bettors are going to overvalue some of them. That could work to our benefit. For me, I rarely consider those top teams and conferences among my best bets because those lines are usually tighter than what we see at the Group of Six ranks.
Here are my favorite Week 10 college football picks:
For more best bets, check out our VSiN Picks page with top plays from hosts and guests.
Lines from Circa Sports as of 4:00 p.m. PT on November 4
Temple vs. Navy (-7, 55) Prediction
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Pick: Navy -7 (-120)
Either 7.5 with reduced juice or 7 with the extra vig are fine here, as I think this is the game that Navy has been waiting for. The Middies have played a really rough slate recently, falling to Notre Dame, North Texas, and UTSA. Those are all potent offensive teams capable of being efficient in a low-possession environment, which is what Navy games are. I will say that the Middies really, really miss P.J. Volker, who was the DC and is now with the Ravens. But, the offense is humming under OC Drew Cronic.
Jackson Gutierrez didn’t begin the season as the starter, but he’s already up near 1,000 rushing yards with 13 TDs. He’s also thrown for seven touchdowns and has proven to be a pretty useful dual-threat guy in this offense. Replacing Blake Horvath was going to be tough, and Braxton Woodson was the logical choice, but his injury opened up an opportunity for Gutierrez and he has, literally, run with it.
Not surprisingly, Gutierrez struggled to run against Air Force, since the Falcons defense sees the option every day. Outside of that game, Gutierrez has rushed for 75, 134, 232, 139, 228, and 110 since taking over for Woodson against FAU back in Week 2. With Temple’s run defense gradually falling off the pace, he should have another big game here. The Owls allowed 4.32 YPC in September, but allowed 4.82 in October.
Temple is actually 75th in offensive points per drive per Brian Fremeau of BCFToys, but also 116th on defense. Remember that Navy schedule I mentioned earlier? Notre Dame leads the nation in offensive points per drive (excluding garbage time) with 4.02. North Texas is fourth with 3.54. UTSA is 30th with 2.81. Even Florida Atlantic, who beat Navy earlier this season, is 23rd at 2.93.
So, this is a big step down in class for the Navy defense and I feel like their offense should be able to keep doing its thing.
Northern Illinois vs. San Jose State (-10, 52)
Saturday, 4 p.m. ET
Pick: San Jose State -10 (-105)
Life in the Mountain West hasn’t been great for Northern Illinois. They put forth a good effort last week in a 31-24 loss to UNLV, but their other three games have been losses by 21, 18, and 35. They’re back on the road and on the West Coast here against San Jose State.
The Spartans have a really stout defense. Per Fremeau’s non-garbage time defensive points per drive, SJSU is 41st in the nation at just 1.9. Conversely, Northern Illinois has allowed over four points per drive. Only Colorado State is worse. But, the Huskies are also awful on offense. Only UTEP is worse in the net points per drive department. Despite the strong defensive numbers, San Jose State is 99th.
With a really bad defense coming to town, this should be an opportunity for the Spartans to flex a little bit of offensive muscle. The defense may also be able to set the offense up for success. SJSU has racked up 31 sacks and 11 interceptions. A pick-six or some sort of short field could really help the cause here and should maybe even be expected.
Colorado vs. Arizona State (-3.5, 48) Prediction
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Pick: Arizona State -3.5
The Sun Devils were good to us last week with a pretty easy cover against BYU. Jake Fette wasn’t terribly accurate with 166 yards on 42 pass attempts, but he also got harassed with six sacks and one fumble. The Sun Devils held the Cougars to just 1.6 yards per carry and mostly held Bear Bachmeier in check. Even with the negative plays and some turnovers, Arizona State was feisty and was in the game in the fourth quarter.
Fette goes from seeing a top-15 defense in his first start to seeing a defense that ranks 68th in yards per play. Cardae Mack still ran for 123 yards on 23 carries against the BYU front and he should be able to find similar or more success here. Fette should also get a warm welcome from the Tempe faithful, who spent part of the last home game booing Cutter Boley and the offense.
The Buffaloes defense went in reverse in October, allowing nearly 5.8 yards per play. The offense turned up a bit with better than six yards per play, but Arizona State has some pretty good players on defense and that unit has come alive recently.
I also like Kenny Dillingham more than Deion Sanders, especially now that Dillingham has had some film to break down with Fette.
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