Eight College Football Betting Concepts to Consider for Week 1:

Over the last seven years at VSiN, I’ve studied data for readers and unveiled foundational betting systems that our readers could employ in their handicapping routines. I look for specific line ranges, types of games, and the point in the season in which games were played as the foundation for forming these strategies. 

For instance, the opening weeks of the college football season present interesting matchups, and the prices set by oddsmakers can give bettors valuable insight into how the “experts” are evaluating the games. I’m here now to update the analysis.

 

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It’s believed that bookmakers are “in the know.” They set their lines up for specific reasons. In turn, those lines are bet heavily by the professionals, who put equal work into prepping for the season. Following the lead of these two groups, bettors should be able to take advantage. Studying the results of games against the lines does that. 

I set out to find whether or not there were any relatively simple systems or concepts bettors can use in the opening week(s) of college football season. I consider these opening week(s) as Week 0 and Week 1. I released the findings this week since the 2024 week 0 slate was smaller than usual. These systems are in addition to the COLLEGE FOOTBALL STABILITY SYSTEM plays that I will release for the first four full weeks.

After studying the Week 0/1 games for the last 11 seasons, I came up with eight different betting concepts you want to consider over the next two weeks. They all have a solid foundation, and I will explain that in each as I reveal the systems and the games in play for 2024.

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #1:

Huge favorites (-37.5 points or more) have been automatic in FBS vs. FBS matchups in the opening week(s) of college football since 2013, going 14-0 SU and ATS (100%)!

Steve’s thoughts: When opening week lines approach the 40-point favorite level, oddsmakers perceive a massive difference between two teams in talent. In addition, the better team always played at home in these games. That comes with additional motivation as these hosts are anxious to get their promising seasons off to a good start against an opponent that is essentially powerless to stop them. The result has been easy wins and point spread covers, with these games producing an average score of 58.2-8.8 on games with average lines of -39.3. In 2023, three games applied to this system, with Alabama (-39.5) beating MTSU 56-7, Texas A&M (-38) throttling New Mexico 52-10, and USC (-37.5) whipping Nevada 66-14.

Teams qualifying for 2024: There are two games with massive lines for this year in Week 1, a little more than average since there have only been 14 in 11 seasons. These are the huge favorites that are expected to roll in their openers:
OKLAHOMA vs. Temple
OHIO STATE vs. Akron

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #2:

Home-field advantage means a lot in early season games between unfamiliar Power 4 non-conference foes. The hosts in these matchups have gone 26-13 SU and 23-13-3 ATS (63.9%) over the last decade-plus.

Steve’s thoughts: As I indicated in #1 above, a lot of motivation comes from playing at home in the opening week(s) of the college football season. Particularly when the opening week(s) foe is another big-name school. The only line range in which these host teams haven’t covered their point spreads over the last 10 years has been in the -7 to -18.5 range, as those hosts are just 4-8-3 ATS. Otherwise, the home teams in these early season showdowns have been nearly automatic.

Teams qualifying for 2024: There are five non-conference showdowns between Power 4 foes at campus sites this season. However, three hosts are in the -7 to -18.5 range, so tread lightly in those games. Otherwise, the other two hosts (Minnesota and Florida) will test what has become a 19-5 ATS (79.2%) trend.

North Carolina at MINNESOTA (+1.5)
TCU at STANFORD (+9.5)
Penn St at WEST VIRGINIA (+8.5)
Miami (FL) at FLORIDA (+2.5)
Virginia Tech at VANDERBILT (+13.5)

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #3:

Small favorites win the early neutral field showdowns between non-conference Power 4 foes, as those laying less than a touchdown are on a 14-4 SU and 13-5 ATS (72.2%) run since 2013.

Steve’s thoughts: Oddsmakers have put in the work. They know how these teams stack up against one another, particularly with the well-covered Power 4 teams. In these expectedly tight neutral field games, trust them. They usually lead you to water.

Teams qualifying for 2024: There are just two Week 0/1 non-conference Power 4 tilts to consider, but only one is expected to be highly competitive. The other boasts a line near two touchdowns. The Sunday tilt between LSU and USC in Las Vegas will once again test this angle.

Power 5 non-conference NEUTRAL games
LSU (-4.5) vs. USC

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #4:

There is a massive swing in expectation to win and/or cover when Group of 5 teams square off with Power 4 teams in Weeks 0/1 over the last decade. As hosts, the Group of 5 teams have gone 30-19 ATS (61.2%), including Nevada’s cover last week vs. SMU. On the road or in neutral games, these Group of 5 teams are 82-113 ATS (42.1%) in that same time span. Bet accordingly based upon that over 19% swing.

Steve’s thoughts: I must repeat, there is a lot of motivation that comes from playing at home in the opening week(s) of the college football season. Even when teams are supposedly overmatched in talent, the home field gives them the juice to compete. These same overmatched teams have trouble staying in games when on the road. There are a lot of Group of 5-Power 4 matchups every year; be sure to follow this trend while it continues.

Teams qualifying for 2024: By my count, there are 21 games scheduled in Week 1 that pit Group of 5 conference teams versus Power 4 foes and only one of the Group of 5 teams is at home. The rest are in true road games. The latter are a typically difficult way to start a season.

Group of 5 HOME TEAMS vs. Power 4 foes (follow these home teams)
HAWAII vs. UCLA

Group of 5 ROAD TEAMS vs. Power 5 foes (fade these road teams)
Temple at OKLAHOMA
Western Michigan at WISCONSIN
Florida Atlantic at MICHIGAN STATE
Florida International at INDIANA
Kent State at PITTSBURGH
Connecticut at MARYLAND
Ohio at SYRACUSE
Georgia State at GEORGIA TECH
Old Dominion at SOUTH CAROLINA
Southern Miss at KENTUCKY
Akron at OHIO STATE
New Mexico at ARIZONA
Wyoming at ARIZONA STATE
Colorado State at TEXAS
UTEP at NEBRASKA
Miami (OH) at NORTHWESTERN
UNLV at HOUSTON
Western Kentucky at ALABAMA
Fresno State at MICHIGAN
Notre Dame at TEXAS A&M

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #5:

Favorites have been far more reliable at home and in neutral games in the opening week(s) of college football since 2013 (186-153 ATS 54.9%), than on the road (42-61 ATS 40.8%).

Steve’s thoughts: Again, there is a lot of motivation that comes from playing at home in the opening week(s) of the college football season. Teams are excited, fans are excited, and you can generally feel the extra “juice” in the home stadiums. As you can see from the ATS results over the last ten seasons, opening-week home teams are generally the better bet, as they own the ATS ledger as both favorites and underdogs. If you’re a bettor that prefers to back “the better team,” recognize that there has been a 14.1% difference between the success rates of home and road favorites beating their points spreads in Week 0/1 games of late.

Teams qualifying for 2024: By my count, there are eight games lined up for the first two weekends featuring true road favorites playing in what could be more difficult environments than perceived. Several of these teams could see their season prospects flushed with a key early loss. Consider that with home underdog covers comes the possibility of outright upsets. Highlight these road favorite games when starting your handicapping routine and consider the fact thought that these “better teams” will be facing motivated home dogs. 

North Carolina at MINNESOTA
TCU at STANFORD
James Madison at CHARLOTTE
Penn State at WEST VIRGINIA
Boise State at GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Miami (FL) at FLORIDA
Virginia Tech at Vanderbilt
UCLA at HAWAII

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #6:

Oddsmakers are leading you to water on low-totaled games in weeks 0/1, especially with bigger favorites, as in games with totals of 48 or less and a favorite of 4 points or more, Under the total is 34-12 (73.9%) since 2013, including another 9-3 run in 2023.

Steve’s thoughts: Remember, the oddsmakers study these teams extensively throughout the offseason. When they find that teams aren’t going to be explosive offensively, they tell you so by setting their opening totals low. As proof, the underdogs of +4 or more in these 28 games have scored just 15.7 PPG. When only one of the teams is capable of scoring, you don’t get too many Overs. Considering that the average college total has been in the 55ish range for the last decade-plus, a total of 48 may seem appetizing for an Over play, but it’s proven to be a profitable strategy to avoid that temptation. See low, expect low.

GAMES with totals of 48 or less and one team favored by 4 points or more qualifying for 2024: There are six games officially qualifying as Under plays as of press time, and three of them involved Big Ten teams. There are a few other games with totals hovering between 48.5-49.5 as well, so watch those closely, as they could eventually wind up qualifying.

Florida Atlantic-Michigan State
Connecticut-Maryland
Ohio U-Syracuse
Nevada-Troy
Fresno St-Michigan
Notre Dame-Texas A&M

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #7:

Non-conference games between Group of 5 opponents involving home underdogs in Weeks 0/1 have been explosive, particularly when not expected to be. In fact, since 2013, when totals on these games involving home dogs (or pick ’ems) are 64 or less, the result has been 22 Overs, 8 Unders (73.3%).

Steve’s thoughts: There is a reason teams are home underdogs in Weeks 0/1, particularly when the opponents are from relatively evenly matched conference levels. They are expected to be overmatched. While these home dogs score relatively well (26.9 PPG), they tend to give up a lot of points as well (34.6), and with a record of 11-19 outright in these contests, they are often playing catch-up in the second half. This naturally leads to Overs. On totals averaging 54.9 PPG, these 61.5 PPG scored are a nice cushion for Over bettors.

Group of 5 games with totals of 64 or less and the host playing as a pick ’em or underdog qualifying for 2024: There are two games officially qualifying as Over plays as of press time.

James Madison-Charlotte
Boise State-GA Southern

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #8:

Non-conference games between Group of 5 opponents featuring a home favorite have been unexpectedly lower scoring, producing 38 Unders, 22 Overs (63.3%) since 2013.

Steve’s thoughts: In concept #4 above, I noted that the home underdogs in these Group of 5 non-conference games were able to produce enough points consistently to benefit Over bettors. It has been the opposite when the underdogs are on the road, as in that same 10-year time span, these early-season dogs have produced just 21.3 PPG. This has resulted in a majority of these games going Under their respective totals.

Group of 5 games with the host playing as a favorite qualifying for 2024: There are six games officially qualifying as Under plays as of press time.

Coastal Carolina-Jacksonville State
Kennesaw State-UTSA
Eastern Michigan-Massachusetts
North Texas-South Alabama
Nevada-Troy
Sam Houston State-Rice

For more College Football Week 1 predictions, visit the College Football Week 1 Hub at VSiN.com.

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