Championship Week for the 2024 college football season is here and our VSiN team is attacking it relentlessly. If you haven’t already, make sure you check out the Championship Week CFB Betting Hub for write-ups and picks from all of our talented analysts. Adam Burke did a great job of previewing all of the conference championship games, so make sure you read his previews. However, keep reading for my college football best bets and predictions for this exciting weekend. I might add some picks as lines move and more information comes out later in the week — and on game day. If I do, I’ll put them on the VSiN Pro Picks page. Don’t miss out on those.

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Iowa State vs. Arizona State – 12:00 pm ET (Big 12 Championship Game)

I was interested in going a little bigger on Arizona State here, but the injury to wide receiver Jordyn Tyson is a big one. The sophomore has 75 receptions for 1,101 yards and 10 touchdowns this season, so the Sun Devils will be missing him when they look to attack the Cyclones through the air. However, I still think Arizona State will get the job done. I’m just not going crazy with my units here.

The reality in this game is that there isn’t much that separates these teams. They have nearly identical numbers when it comes to EPA per play allowed, and the Sun Devils’ edge in EPA per play on offense is probably negated by the absence of Tyson. However, what can’t be negated is the fact that Matt Campbell is 0-5 straight-up as a neutral-field underdog in his career. That includes an 0-4 mark with Iowa State. The Cyclones are also 13-32 SU as underdogs under Campbell, in general. On top of that, they’re just 7-20 SU when facing teams with winning percentages of 75.0% or higher under Campbell.

For as good as Campbell is at running a program — and doing so with limited resources — he has not been good about getting his groups to play up to high-level competition. Meanwhile, the Sun Devils have never lost as a favorite under Kenny Dillingham. They’re a perfect 8-0 SU when expected to win. Arizona State also happens to have all the motivation in the world, as the team was picked to finish last in the Big 12 and is one game away from winning the conference and booking a spot in the College Football Playoff.

We also just saw running back Cam Skattebo rush for 147 yards and three touchdowns in a win over BYU two weeks ago. That’s significant because the Cougars and Cyclones have the exact same Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.051). If Iowa State can’t find a way to slow down Skattebo, Arizona State is going to win this game rather easily. He singlehandedly wears out defenses, and he also makes life very easy on quarterback Sam Leavitt.

Bet: Arizona State ML (-125)

Georgia vs. Texas – 4:00 pm ET (SEC Championship Game)

The Texas quarterback situation is a little messy right now. The fact that we’re into the college football postseason and the Longhorns still don’t have an unquestioned starter is wild. Of course, Quinn Ewers will get the first crack at Georgia, and he’s universally viewed as the starter. However, the team has been running packages for Arch Manning, and there’s some buzz about Steve Sarkisian being willing to go away from Ewers if he needs to. That’s all very unsettling, even if a switch to the highly-talented freshman could unlock the offense. However, while I don’t feel great about the Texas offense, I do think the team is going to beat Georgia.

It’s just hard to ignore the fact that the Longhorns are second in the nation in EPA per play allowed (-0.152), and they have seemingly been playing their best football over the last couple of weeks. Texas has allowed 17 or fewer points in each of its last four games, and this isn’t exactly the most daunting matchup in the world. Sure, Georgia has had some big games offensively this year, but Carson Beck is a mistake-prone quarterback and this will be the Longhorns’ second look at the Bulldogs. I’m expecting a great performance from the Texas defense after the 30-15 loss in Austin earlier in the year. And even though the Longhorns offense has some question marks right now, do you really feel good about the Bulldogs defense after seeing them get lit up by the Yellow Jackets last week?

Kirby Smart is also 2-4 SU as a neutral-field underdog with Georgia. Meanwhile, Sarkisian has never lost a game to an opponent that beat him earlier in the same season. We haven’t yet seen it with Texas, but I’m banking on the result being the same.

Bet: Texas ML (-135 – 1.5 units)

Clemson vs. SMU – 8:00 pm ET (ACC Championship Game)

It seems like a lot of people are anticipating a shootout in this game, but I tend to think it’s going to be a little lower in scoring. I know that SMU has an explosive offense, and Clemson has the on-field talent to match it. However, the Mustangs are also 11th in the nation in EPA per play allowed (-0.097) this season, and the Tigers are 30th (-0.055) in that regard. These are two very good defensive teams, and I think that could end up being the story of this championship game.

The Under is actually 8-4 in SMU’s games this season, and that includes a 6-2 Under mark against ACC teams. Also, all of the games that these teams played against top-25 opponents in the College Football Playoff went way Under. For Clemson, that was a 34-3 loss to Georgia and a 17-14 loss to South Carolina. And SMU only played one opponent that is ranked in the College Football Playoff rankings, and that was an 18-15 loss to BYU.

I’m just not sure Cade Klubnik and this hot-and-cold Clemson offense can be trusted to light up a good SMU defense. And I also think the Tigers defense has the ability to make Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings uncomfortable. For as talented as he is, he is capable of making some bad mistakes.

Bet: Under 56 (-110)

Added Plays

PARLAY: Tulane ML vs. Army & UNLV Alt Spread +10.5 vs. Boise State (+109 – 1.5 units) – It seems like a lot of people are rushing to back Army in this game, but Jon Sumrall’s defenses have given up a total of nine points in his last three meetings with service academy programs. That said, I’d be somewhat surprised if the Green Wave aren’t ready to roll defensively here. And I trust their offense to do enough to win this game, even after a lousy showing against Memphis last week. As for the second game, I like UNLV but I’m nervous about playing the current number. So, I figured I’ll give myself a little extra cushion, and I’ll give myself plus-money odds in doing it. The first meeting between these teams could have gone either way. And while that game was played in Vegas, there was a lot of blue in the stands. So, it’s not like the Rebels had some massive home-field advantage. Realistically, I just trust their defense to do what’s necessary to avoid a blowout.

Check the Pro Picks page for any additional plays, or come back here right before kick-off to see if I added something on the game you’re interested in.

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2024 Record: 52-52-1 (-1.68 units)

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