Week 10 of the 2024 college football season is here and our VSiN team is attacking it relentlessly. If you haven’t already, make sure you check out the Week 10 CFB Betting Hub for write-ups and picks from all of our talented analysts. However, keep reading for my college football best bets and predictions for this exciting Week 10 slate. I’ll probably add some picks as lines move and more information comes out later in the week — and on game day. If I do, I’ll put them on the VSiN Pro Picks page. Don’t miss out on those.

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Ole Miss at Arkansas – 12:00 pm ET

It’s a little surprising that Arkansas is getting more than a touchdown at some shops. Ole Miss might be top 10 in both EPA per play (0.129) and EPA per play allowed (-0.119), but there’s something about this Rebels team that doesn’t seem right. Two games ago, Ole Miss ended up losing to LSU in a game that really should have gone the Rebels way. Then, Ole Miss won by only 12 as a 19-point home favorite against Oklahoma last week. So, maybe this team is moving the ball with relative ease, but Jaxson Dart and Co. are not cashing in as often as they should. In fact, this is a team that many believed would be one of the better offensive squads in the country this year, but you have to go back to September 21st for a game in which Ole Miss scored more than 27 points. So, this is a case where the advanced stats don’t match up with the eye test, and I’m just not sure why I should trust the Rebels to score enough to win this game by more than seven.

Arkansas is coming off a game in which the team won 58-25 as a 7.5-point road favorite against Mississippi State. Taylen Green went nuts in that one, throwing for 314 yards with five touchdowns and only one picks, while also rushing for 79 yards and a score. This offense just started clicking last game, and I think the Razorbacks are going to be able to drive early and often against this Rebels defense. Arkansas has the talent, and the team also has the coaching. Bobby Petrino is a very effective offensive coordinator.

Our analytics guru Steve Makinen has an estimated score of Ole Miss 28.1 – Arkansas 24.6 on the matchup page for this game. That makes me feel great about grabbing the 7.5 points. I also like the fact that the Rebels are just 4-8-2 against the spread in the second half of the season under Lane Kiffin. On top of that, the Razorbacks are 6-5 ATS as home underdogs under Sam Pittman. However, I’m also sprinkling the moneyline here. This is just a solid Arkansas team and winning on the road in the SEC is difficult.

Bet: Arkansas +7.5 (-115 – 2 units) & Arkansas ML (+220 – 0.5 units)

RELATED: Here’s an updated look at the Heisman Trophy betting markets!

Texas A&M at South Carolina – 7:30 pm ET

While I did just mention that it’s tough to win on the road in the SEC, I also believe that defense travels. Well, Texas A&M is 15th in the nation in EPA per play allowed (-0.091), and Mike Elko’s teams are always awesome defensively. So, I’m not sure I see South Carolina scoring a lot of points here. The Gamecocks are just 48th in the nation in EPA per play (0.031), and I don’t think the passing game is good enough to strike fear in this Aggies defense.

However, there is some concern about whether Texas A&M will be able to score against South Carolina. The Gamecocks are 10th in the nation in EPA per play allowed (-0.104) this year, and they have really exceeded expectations on this side of the ball. But Texas A&M is likely going to play Marcel Reed quite a bit in this one, and his legs have been a game-changer for this Aggies offense. Last week, Reed really sparked a comeback win over a very good LSU team, and I think his ability to make plays will help Texas A&M get over the finish line here.

This is also a game that A&M simply can’t lose. I know it’s important to South Carolina also, but the Aggies are knocking on the door of the College Football Playoff. They can’t let one slip away against a team that is barely over .500.

It’s also worth noting that the Gamecocks are just 8-20 straight-up as underdogs under Shane Beamer, and they’re also just 4-7 SU as home underdogs. So, while Beamer has done some good things in his time with the program, the team doesn’t usually win games it’s not supposed to win.

Bet: Texas A&M ML (-130 – 1.5 units)

Added Plays

Liberty ML (-128 – 2 units) vs. Jax State
UNC ML (-130) vs. Florida State
7-PT TEASER: Auburn ML vs. Vanderbilt & SMU ML vs. Pittsburgh (-120 – 2 units)
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2024 Record: 29-33-1 (-3.68 units)

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