Week 4 of the 2024 college football season is here and our VSiN team is attacking it relentlessly. If you haven’t already, make sure you check out the Week 4 CFB Betting Hub for write-ups and picks from all of our talented analysts. However, keep reading for my college football best bets and predictions for this exciting Week 4 slate. I’ll probably add some picks as lines move and more information comes out later in the week — and on game day. If I do, they’ll be thrown on the VSiN Pro Picks page. Don’t miss out on those.

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2024 Record: 9-8 (+1.98 units)

Florida vs. Mississippi State – 12:00 pm ET

This is going to be one of the most intriguing games of the weekend. Mississippi State has been miserable since earning a 56-7 Week 1 win over FCS Eastern Kentucky, losing a game that was more lopsided than the 30-23 scoreline suggested against Arizona State and then getting romped by Toledo in a 24-point loss at home. However, I tend to think the Bulldogs are somewhat live in this meeting with the Gators, who seem to be on the brink of firing Billy Napier. The former Louisiana head coach is just 12-16 in parts of three seasons with Florida, and it’s highly unlikely that he can survive a loss in this game — even with it being played in Starkville. Growth was expected from the Gators this season, but they’re 1-2 and have already suffered ugly losses against Miami and Texas A&M. Napier is in danger of letting this season get away quickly, and boosters are worried about how all of this will impact recruiting — especially considering Florida hasn’t had much success in that department anyway.

I’m not bold enough to take the Mississippi State moneyline, as Florida still has a pretty sizable advantage in the talent department. And while I have a slight lean on the Bulldogs at +6.5, I won’t play it unless the number hits 7. However, I do absolutely love the Over in this game. This season, Florida is just 126th in the nation in Dropback EPA per play allowed, and this porous secondary could ultimately be what does Napier in. Mississippi State’s offense might not be very consistent, but Jeff Lebby is a great play caller and Blake Shapen is a rock-solid quarterback. So, the Bulldogs should be able to move the ball through the air against the Gators. Meanwhile, Florida should also be able to find some success in the passing game. Mississippi State is just 96th in the country in Dropback EPA per play allowed, and the team just got torched through the air by Tucker Gleason and Toledo. That said, whether it’s Graham Mertz or DJ Lagway under center for the Gators, I expect Florida to play its part in helping this thing go Over.

Overall, this is less of a bet on the two offenses that will be on the field and more of a play against the two defenses. And it should be noted that the Over is 10-1 when Florida has faced teams that average at least 250 passing yards since hiring Napier. The Over is also 8-1 in the nine SEC games that the Gators have played since the start of last season.

Bet: Over 58.5 (-105)

UCLA vs. LSU – 3:30 pm ET

UCLA had a bye week to prepare for last week’s meeting with Indiana, but the Hoosiers still went into California and stomped them. UCLA is now looking like one of the worst teams in a Power Four conference. The Bruins are just 79th in the nation in EPA per play, and a big part of that is a pathetic rushing attack. UCLA can’t run the ball, which is a problem considering Ethan Garbers isn’t the most inspiring quarterback in the world. It’s just hard to imagine a scenario in which this UCLA offense will find a way to put up points against LSU. The Tigers have had some spotty moments on the defensive side of the ball, but I have mostly been encouraged by the way the unit has looked in Blake Baker’s first year as defensive coordinator. LSU is into the Top 50 in EPA per play allowed, and the Tigers really buckled down in the second half of their win over South Carolina last week.

Offensively, I have no concerns about LSU hanging a big number on UCLA. The Bruins have looked extremely beatable on the defensive side of the ball this season, and a trip to Baton Rouge to take on this Tigers offense isn’t the right medicine for that. Garrett Nussmeier has been tremendous in his first season as LSU’s starter, as he has thrown for 895 yards with 10 touchdowns and only two picks this year. He also came up with the goods whenever the Tigers needed him to against the Gamecocks. Look for Nussmeier to pick apart this UCLA secondary, and don’t be surprised if the Tigers get things going on the ground.

I should also mention that LSU is 8-2-1 against the spread as a home favorite under Brian Kelly. The Tigers are also 8-0 ATS under Kelly when playing at home after a game in which 60 or more total points were scored. LSU has won those games by an average of 29.6 points per game.

Bet: LSU -24.5 (-102)

RELATED: Here’s an updated look at the Heisman Trophy betting markets!

Kent State vs. Penn State – 3:30 pm ET

Only eight teams in college football have a worse EPA per play allowed than Kent State. The Golden Flashes have already played games in which they gave up 55 points to Pittsburgh and 71 points to Tennessee. That said, I’m expecting an outrageous offensive performance from Penn State in this game. Through two games, the Nittany Lions are averaging 34.0 points per game and are 21st in the nation in EPA per play. Also, if you need proof of how good new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki is at his job, just take a look at how his last team is doing without him. The Jayhawks are just 1-2 through three games and quarterback Jalon Daniels looks lost. Meanwhile, Penn State quarterback Drew Allar has career-highs in completion percentage, passer rating and yards per attempt. This game is nothing but another opportunity for Allar to pad his stats, and the Nittany Lions should also get some serious production from their explosive backfield.

What’s sad for Kent State is that the team is almost as bad offensively as it is defensively. Only 13 teams in college football have a worse EPA per play than the Golden Flashes, who were shut out when they went on the road to face the Volunteers. I’m not sure we’ll see another zero in the box score in this game, but I do expect Penn State’s defense to look impenetrable here. And that’s especially true with the team having just struggled a bit with Bowling Green. Head coach James Franklin and new defensive coordinator Tom Allen are going to be on their guys about making things right after that poor effort.

Franklin also happens to be very good about beating up on bad teams. Penn State is 7-3 ATS as a favorite of 31+ under Franklin, and the team is also 3-1 ATS as a home favorite of 42.5+ under him. On top of that, Kent State is just 1-7 ATS as a road underdog under Kenni Burns.

Bet: Penn State -48.5 (-109)

Arkansas vs. Auburn – 3:30 pm ET

Auburn is coming off a blowout win over New Mexico and new starting quarterback Hank Brown threw for 235 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in the victory. There was some real excitement about the freshman’s play, but people might want to temper expectations. While Payton Thorne’s play to start the season was a nightmare, anybody can light up that Lobos defense. New Mexico has the third-worst defense in the nation when it comes to EPA per play allowed, so don’t put too much stock into Brown’s performance.

Brown could very well offer better play than Thorne the rest of the season. It’s not a high bar to clear. However, I have a hard time believing he’ll play well enough to help Auburn win this game by more than a field goal — or win this game at all. Last week, Jarquez Hunter, Damari Alston and Jeremiah Cobb combined to rush for 266 yards and two touchdowns against New Mexico. The Tigers completely softened up the Lobos defense with an unstoppable running game, making life very easy on Brown. That likely won’t happen against the Razorbacks. Arkansas has a lot of talent along the defensive line, and slowing down the run will be the main priority for Sam Pittman’s team. If Brown can beat the Razorbacks over the top, Pittman will tip his cap and accept that result.

I also love what I have seen from Arkansas’ offense, with Bobby Petrino calling plays for high-impact transfers like quarterback Taylen Green and running back Ja’Quinden Jackson. The Razorbacks are averaging 46.0 points per game through three games, and only 10 teams in college football have done better. With Green’s dual-threat ability and a good runner right behind him, this Arkansas running game is tough to defend. Green also made some huge throws against a good Oklahoma State defense two weeks ago. Realistically, the Razorbacks should have won that game, and the conversation about this one might have been different if they did.

All in all, I just can’t help but think that Arkansas is the better team on both sides of the ball here, and the fact that this will be played at Jordan-Hare Stadium shouldn’t tip the scales in Auburn’s favor. Arkansas is actually 10-3 ATS as a road underdog under Pittman. Also, Josh Appelbaum interestingly pointed out that road underdogs of +4 or less are 13-5 ATS this season.

Bet: Arkansas +3.5 (-110 – 1.5 units)

TCU vs. SMU – 5:00 pm ET

I’m going against the line movement in this game and taking a shot on SMU to win outright. I took the Mustangs to go Over their season win total this season, and I’m admittedly not feeling great about that. SMU looked terrible in a Week 0 win over Nevada and then lost as a double-digit favorite against BYU in Week 2. However, the Mustangs have had 15 days to get prepared for this game, and they’re also starting Kevin Jennings at quarterback. Jennings is a talented dual-threat player under center and should thrive now that this is his show. It’s not easy having to worry about your job status, which is what he and Preston Stone have been dealing with for weeks. A little clarity should go a long way, and taking all the first-team reps will be huge for Jennings.

This is also a pretty good buy-low spot for SMU, especially with this being a game against a TCU team that suffered a brutal loss last week. TCU was up 28-7 against UCF early in the third quarter, but the Knights came back and earned a stunning road victory in that one. One would think this Horned Frogs team will now be a little defeated, as that was a huge Big 12 matchup and they let it slip away.

This is also an interesting game because SMU head coach Rhett Lashlee used to work for TCU head coach Sonny Dykes. These two will be very familiar with each other’s offenses, but that’s where Jennings’ legs come into play. His ability to tuck the ball and run should make SMU a little more unpredictable. Josh Hoover has been great as a passer this year, but he doesn’t have that other element to his game.

I also think we’re going to see some real in-season improvement from SMU’s defense. The Mustangs brought back seven players with starting experience from a unit that allowed just 17.8 points per game in 2023. Sure, that was against AAC competition and SMU did lose some key players, so that type of defense might not be replicable this year. But the Mustangs are a little better than what they have shown thus far, and I would be surprised if they don’t do a decent job of keeping the Horned Frogs in check with so much extra time to prepare.

Bet: SMU ML (+130)

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