Week 5 of the 2024 college football season is here and our VSiN team is attacking it relentlessly. If you haven’t already, make sure you check out the Week 5 CFB Betting Hub for write-ups and picks from all of our talented analysts. However, keep reading for my college football best bets and predictions for this exciting Week 5 slate. I’ll probably add some picks as lines move and more information comes out later in the week — and on game day. If I do, they’ll be thrown on the VSiN Pro Picks page. Don’t miss out on those.

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2024 Record: 14-13 (+2.78 units)

Oklahoma State at Kansas State – 12:00 pm ET

Last week’s Kansas State game was out of control. The Wildcats looked like they were going to go into halftime with a 6-3 lead at the very least, and they were also getting the ball to start the second half. Well, DJ Giddens fumbled with just about a minute left in the first half, and BYU scooped it up for a score. Avery Johnson then threw a pick on the next possession and the Cougars scored two plays later. BYU went into halftime with a 17-6 lead, and Kansas State was visibly rattled. From there, the mistakes continued to pile up and the Cougars ran away with it. Overall, it was a nutty game in one of the most difficult road environments in the sport. However, it’s not a game that you should read into.

Kansas State is still 37th in the nation in EPA per play allowed (-0.057) and the team is 27th in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.084). This defense should be able to slow down Ollie Gordon II, who is rushing for just 3.5 yards per carry. This Oklahoma State offensive line just hasn’t been getting the type of push that was expected this year, and Gordon hasn’t been as decisive in hitting holes. So, I trust the Wildcats to keep the star running back in check, and that would be a bit of a nightmare for the Cowboys. Oklahoma State’s passing game just hasn’t been there all year, and Mike Gundy isn’t even sure who he should be starting at quarterback.

I’m also not very worried about Johnson and the Kansas State offense getting back on track. He’s an electric dual-threat quarterback and he’ll be a lot more comfortable playing in Manhattan than he was in Provo. So, some of the uncharacteristic turnovers we saw out of him last week shouldn’t be there. And overall, I just don’t see the Pokes having an answer for Johnson’s legs, and I also think the Wildcats running backs will get going here.

It’s also worth noting that Kansas State is 8-1 against the spread as a home favorite of 7 or less under head coach Chris Klieman. The team is also 7-3 ATS off a road loss against a conference rival with Klieman at the helm.

Bet: Kansas State -4.5 (-110)

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Mississippi State at Texas – 4:15 pm ET

Mississippi State has been one of the worst Power Four teams in the country this year, and it’s really because of a miserable defense. Only 14 teams in college football are worse when it comes to EPA per play allowed (0.107), and the Bulldogs have allowed 86 points over the last two games. That’s especially alarming considering the opponents were Toledo and Florida. Mississippi State now faces a Texas team that is second in the nation in EPA per play. No matter who ends up playing between Arch Manning and Quinn Ewers, the Longhorns should march down the field regularly in this game.

The Bulldogs also lost quarterback Blake Shapen last week, as he’s out for the season after injuring his shoulder. Shapen was the lone bright spot on this Mississippi State team, as he has thrown for 974 yards with eight touchdowns and only one pick this season. Without him, the Bulldogs are going to be completely disoriented, especially against a Longhorns team that is fourth in the nation in EPA per play allowed (-0.191).

This Texas team is just loaded on both sides of the ball. There’s a big talent mismatch here, and there’s also a pretty big coaching mismatch. Speaking of that, Steve Sarkisian is 7-1 ATS as a favorite of 31 or more in his career. He’s 4-1 ATS in those games at Texas. Also, after seeing Michigan beat USC last week, that win for the Longhorns a couple of weeks ago looks even more impressive. This Texas team is an absolute wagon.

Bet: Texas -38.5 (-110)

Arizona at Utah – 10:15 pm ET

I’m not going to try to figure out what’s going on with Cam Rising. We’ve been doing this song and dance for two years now. If he’s out there, great. Utah would have a much easier time beating Arizona’s secondary through the air. However, if it’s Isaac Wilson, I still like the Utes.

The reality is that Micah Bernard has been running wild lately. He rushed 19 times for 118 yards against Baylor, 17 times for 123 yards and a score against Utah State and then 25 times for 182 yards against Oklahoma State. Bernard is good between the tackles and also has some home-run hitting ability. Utah’s offensive line has also been great about creating holes for him. Bernard should run wild against a Wildcats team that is just 84th in the country in Rush EPA per play allowed (0.027). And Wilson has proven that he is capable of doing what the Utes need from him in the passing game. The freshman just went into Stillwater and delivered a victory. That’s not easy.

Utah’s defense also happens to match up well with Arizona’s offense. Sure, we might see a big play or two from Noah Fifita to Tetairoa McMillan. That’s one of the best QB-WR duos in the country. However, Utah is 18th in the nation in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.102). This team is built to slow down explosive passing attacks, so I trust the Utes not to get torched through the air.

Utah also happens to be 27-17 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points under Kyle Whittingham, who is one of the best coaches in the country. Honestly, the matchup between Whittingham and Brent Brennan is a big part of the reason I like the Utes to handle their business here. The coaching battle here isn’t even close.

Bet: Utah -11.5 (-105)

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