Week 10 of the 2025 college football season is here and our VSiN team is attacking it relentlessly. If you haven’t already, make sure you check out the Week 10 CFB Betting Hub for write-ups and picks from all of our talented analysts. However, I’d love for you to keep reading for my college football best bets and predictions for this exciting Week 10 slate. I’ll probably add some picks as lines move and more information comes out later in the week — and on game day. If I do, I’ll put them on the VSiN Pro Picks page. Don’t miss out on those.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for college football best bets from all of our analysts
Vanderbilt Commodores at Texas Longhorns – 12:00 pm ET
It’s remarkable that Texas was able to steal that win against Mississippi State last week. However, now that the Longhorns are still at two losses, this is suddenly a massive game for Steve Sarkisian’s team. Texas is undoubtedly on the outside looking in for a College Football Playoff spot, but a win over a very good Vanderbilt team would really boost the resume. And this is a game the Longhorns should be able to win.
Our DraftKings Sportsbook and Circa Sports betting splits pages show overwhelming support for the road team, which is understandable considering the way Diego Pavia has looked in leading Vanderbilt to some massive victories. However, there’s some reverse line movement that favors the Texas side here. That’s nice to see as I gear up for a big play on the Longhorns moneyline, but there’s more to it than that.
It’s just hard not to like Texas’ defense to contain Vanderbilt this week. The Longhorns have a top-five rushing defense by EPA per play (-0.22), and the Commodores could struggle if their fourth-ranked rushing attack (0.22) can’t get going on early downs. Also, for as questionable as Arch Manning has looked throughout this season, he should be able to find some success against Vanderbilt. The Commodores are outside the top-100 in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.16), and they’re especially shaky over the top. That means Manning should have opportunities to hit some home runs.
Texas is also 25-4 straight-up as a home favorite under Sarkisian. On top of that, the team is 5-0 SU when playing at home in a game with a total between 42.5 and 49 points with Sark on the sidelines. I’ll also add that Vanderbilt is 4-11 SU when facing teams that allow 310.0 or fewer yards per game under Clark Lea.
Bet: Texas ML (-140 – 1.5 units)
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Florida State Seminoles – 7:30 pm ET
It’s crazy what has happened to Florida State. The Seminoles looked awesome in a 31-17 Week 1 win over the Crimson Tide, but they enter this game on a four-game losing streak. Florida State’s last two losses were also especially miserable, as the team was favored by double digits against both Pittsburgh and Stanford. Still, even with things trending in the wrong direction, it’s tough to turn down the Seminoles this week.
Since Mike Norvell became a head coach, he’s 16-11 against the spread as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. The Seminoles are also 5-4-1 ATS when coming off three straight ATS losses under Norvell, plus they’re coming off a bye week. With extra time to rest and prepare, Florida State should be able to beat up on Wake Forest. There’s just a huge difference in the talent department here.
Florida State’s advanced stats are also just much better than the opponent here. Wake Forest might be seventh in the nation in EPA per play allowed (-0.18), but their Net EPA per play of 0.10 puts them only 44th in the nation. Florida State, for as bad as things have been, has a Net EPA per play of (0.23), which is 15th in the country.
I also just don’t think the Demon Deacons defense, which has been tremendous, will hold up well against a Seminoles team that is loaded with playmakers. It’s also worth noting that this is another game in which there has been some real reverse line movement that makes the home team look more appealing.
Bet: Florida State -9.5 (-120)
Added Plays
PARLAY: Marshall ML vs. Coastal Carolina & UTSA Alt +15.5 vs. Tulane (-127 – 1.5 units)
Syracuse ML (-130 – 1.5 units) vs. North Carolina
Florida +7.5 (-115 – 1.5 units) & ML (+240 – 0.5 units) vs. Georgia
Kansas State +7.5 (-115 – 1.5 units) & ML (+240 – 0.5 units) vs. Texas Tech
Check the Pro Picks page for any additional plays, or come back here right before kick-off to see if I added something on the game you’re interested in.
_______________________________________
2025 Record: 43-46 (-4.29 units)
