Penn State vs. Boise State:

The Penn State Nittany Lions and Boise State Broncos meet in the first College Football Playoff quarterfinal, as the lower-seeded Big Ten representative is a double-digit favorite over the highest-ranked Group of Five conference champion. This one will be at the Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Arizona on Tuesday December 31 and is the lone quarterfinal on that date.

It remains to be seen whether or not the long layoff for the bye teams will come into play, but Boise State, much like the other teams who didn’t play in the first round, won’t have played since December 6 when this game kicks off.

 

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Let’s break it all down and see if there’s a good bet to be made.

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Fiesta Bowl: Penn State Nittany Lions (-11, 52) vs. Boise State Broncos

How To Watch The Fiesta Bowl

When: Tuesday, December 31, 7:30 p.m. ET

How: ESPN

Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ

Penn State’s absolute blowout of SMU on the heels of a top-notch offensive performance against Oregon may have opened some eyes about the Nittany Lions. The 12-team playoff is arguably better than what was in place previously, but there are definitely some flaws with the seeding process, as No. 1 Oregon has to face No. 8 Ohio State in a rematch. Meanwhile, a Penn State team that both Ohio State and Oregon beat gets a much easier draw.

Anyway, what matters here is this game and not a referendum on the CFP. Penn State is in a great spot, so long as they can stop Ashton Jeanty. The Heisman runner-up found a second gear late in the year with back-to-back 200+ yard games against Oregon State and UNLV. Jeanty is three yards shy of 2,500 for the season and the layoff had to help him after a monstrous workload with 344 carries.

This is a huge step up in class for Jeanty and the Boise State offensive line. The Broncos did have 6.7 yards per carry and Jeanty had 25 carries for 192 yards in the game against Oregon. Of course, we also saw Penn State have 8.7 yards per carry against the Ducks in the Big Ten Championship Game. Maybe Oregon’s run defense just isn’t that good. We know that Penn State’s is, sitting 12th in the nation with 3.11 yards per carry allowed.

The strength of schedule discrepancy isn’t just a concern with Jeanty and the Broncos OL. How will Maddux Madsen play against the best defense he’s seen? According to Jeff Sagarin ratings as of Dec. 26, the Broncos have played the 86th-ranked schedule in the nation. Penn State is a top-five team. Madsen did take excellent care of the football with three interceptions against 22 TD passes and only took 10 sacks, but the degree of difficulty ramps up here.

The same is true for the Boise State defense. We’ve seen a much stronger Penn State offense of late, as OC Andy Kotelnicki seems to have everything figured out. Tyler Warren is a mismatch nightmare and the two-headed monster of Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton is riding a wave after stellar efforts against Oregon and SMU.

Boise State led a lot of games, so there was some soft coverage and a lot of pass attempts against, but they allowed 5.6 yards per play. And now they face a bigger, stronger, more physical Big Ten offense.

The narratives about James Franklin in big games are true, but mostly against big opponents. Boise State is an awesome story, but they’re not a top-five caliber team. And you could make some really strong cases about SMU being a better team. Maybe Spencer Danielson has more tricks up his sleeve than Rhett Lashlee had. And fewer pick-sixes would help. But, I think Penn State dominates this game in the trenches and that leads to a cover.

Pick: Penn State -11

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