FIU vs. UTSA
The nightcap of Friday’s ESPN tripleheader features old Conference USA foes, with FIU vs. UTSA in the SERVPRO First Responder Bowl. The Roadrunners were among the six teams that defected to the American Conference, so we could say that there are some conference bragging rights on the line in this one, as the Golden Panthers stayed behind.
Motivation is a major buzzword at this time of the year and FIU should be as motivated as any bowl team, as they are bowling for the first time since the 2019 season. For first-year head coach Willie Simmons, that is one hell of an accomplishment. This is old hat for UTSA, especially under Jeff Traylor, as they’re making their sixth straight bowl appearance on his watch.
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SERVPRO First Responder Bowl: FIU vs. UTSA (-6, 59.5)
Friday, Dec. 26, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Regardless of the outcome in this one, FIU is guaranteed the program’s first winning season since 2018 and just the third since 2011. After a trio of 4-8 seasons from Mike MacIntyre, who was mostly brought in to clean things up after Butch Davis (and the athletic department) left the program in shambles. The results weren’t there, but some newfound stability helped with the transition to Simmons, who had a tremendous stint at Florida A&M before a year as Duke’s running backs coach.
Bowl prospects looked a bit dicey for FIU with a 3-5 start, but the Panthers rattled off wins over MTSU, Liberty, and Jacksonville State to get bowl-eligible and put an exclamation point on the season with a 40-point win over Sam Houston State on the road. The Panthers also beat bowl-eligible Western Kentucky on the road during the regular season.
By the second-narrowest of margins, FIU was on the positive side of yards per play differential with 5.87 YPP on offense and 5.85 YPP allowed on defense. A lot of that had to do with a slow start in non-conference play, as the Panthers had over 6.2 YPP against Conference USA foes and 6.5 YPP in their four November games. They also got better on defense as the season went along. It’s the first time since 2018 that the Panthers had a positive YPP diff.
It will be interesting to see how UTSA comes out for this game. The Roadrunners had a tremendously disappointing season going just 6-6. They did beat CFP qualifier Tulane, but had no other wins of great significance. The only other bowl team that they beat was East Carolina, with losses to Army, South Florida, North Texas, Texas A&M, and Texas State. With the recruiting hotbed of Texas and some pretty decent resources in San Antonio, this is a program that expects to be in the running for that G5 CFP bid, not playing a bowl game in Dallas the day after Christmas.
With an experienced QB in Owen McCown, the Roadrunners racked up over six yards per play, but the defense, which ranked 66th in YPP allowed last season, fell out of the top 100 during the regular season this year. McCown had 2,700 yards during the regular season with a 27/7 TD/INT ratio and a 67.7% completion rate. The Roadrunners only allowed 18 sacks overall. Their top two running backs average 6.9 and 7.3 yards per carry. All of the ingredients were there for a better season.
But, the defense was brutal on early downs. UTSA actually enters this game as a borderline top-30 team in third down defense, but they tied for 127th in plays of 30+ yards allowed with 34 and gave up 10 plays of 50 or more yards. Major defensive lapses and explosive plays against cancelled out a lot of the good offensive production.
So, that will be the task at hand for FIU because they are critically short in the secondary with opt-outs and the transfer portal. QBs Keyone Jenkins and Joe Pesansky were both hurt late in the season, but are reportedly good to go here. UTSA is also dealing with a bevy of opt-outs and injuries, especially on defense, but that wasn’t a good unit to begin with and there may be some addition by subtraction.
FIU vs. UTSA First Responder Bowl Prediction
Simmons and the Panthers have to be way more amped for this game than the Roadrunners. Traylor also expected better for his team and they’re going to be missing starters on both sides of the ball. Is motivation enough, though? UTSA’s talent level is higher. They played the 82nd-ranked strength of schedule compared to FIU’s 138th (there are 136 FBS teams) per Sagarin. I think we see some addition by subtraction with UTSA missing some underperformers and replacing them with some guys hungry to make an impact.
Pick: UTSA -5.5
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