Florida Gators:

It’s going to be interesting to see what happens with Florida this year. This team looks like it will be better on both sides of the ball, but the Gators face a nightmare of a schedule. If Florida doesn’t find a way to reach the .500 mark, would that mean the end of the Billy Napier era? Napier was hired because his coaching style reminded people of Nick Saban, and he had a lot of success at Louisiana. However, Florida is just 11-14 in his two seasons in Gainesville and the Gators aren’t holding their own in the recruiting wars. 

The good news for Florida fans is that it’s almost DJ Lagway time in The Swamp. Lagway is a five-star dual-threat quarterback who was ranked eighth in the 2024 ESPN 300. Lagway likely won’t unseat Graham Mertz this year, but Florida’s fortunes should change once the electric signal caller gets his shot. 

 

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Last season, Mertz threw for 2,903 yards with 20 touchdowns and only three picks. The former five-star recruit flamed out at Wisconsin, so there wasn’t much expected of him when he arrived in Gainesville. But Mertz looked re-energized in his new surroundings, showing great command of the offense and showing that he can make all the throws. Now, there’s high hopes for the Florida passing game in 2024, as he’ll be tossing passes to talented wideout Eugene Wilson again. Florida also brought in former Wisconsin receiver Chimere Dike, who had a good connection with Mertz in Madison. And the Gators also added Arizona State transfer Elijhah Badger, who was one of the best wideouts in the Pac 12. 

Offense

If Florida’s offensive line holds up, the Gators will move the ball. Mertz has a good group of weapons and running back Montrell Johnson Jr. is coming off a season in which he rushed for 817 yards and averaged 5.4 yards per carry. 

Defense

The defensive side of the ball is where things got really ugly for Florida last year. The Gators gave up 27.6 points per game in 2023, and they also were 122nd in college football in yards per play allowed (6.4). Florida didn’t discriminate in how it struggled defensively, either. The Gators gave up 4.8 yards per carry on the ground, which was good for 111th in the nation. They also had an opposing QB Rating of 146.0, which was also 111th. 

Florida did bring in a good amount of talent to compete for starting positions, and the team also happened to play a lot of young guys last year. So, the Gators should look a little more organized, especially with Ron Roberts coming in to help. But this is likely going to remain one of the worst defenses in the SEC. 

Outlook

This is an extremely low number for a team with a brand this big. However, I’m not sure I see four wins on the schedule, and Florida would need five to go Over. Realistically, the only team I’m certain Florida will beat is Samford. This Under is one of my favorite plays you can make this season. 

Pick: Under 4.5 Wins

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