Florida State Seminoles:
If this season were a movie, it would be called “The Revenge of D.J. Uiagalelei”. The former Clemson QB is back in the ACC after a pretty good run at Oregon State. Head coach Jonathan Smith went to Michigan State and Uiagalelei flew south for the fall and winter. It is still hard to think about what transpired at the end of the season for the Seminoles last year, but no team is more motivated to right a wrong this year.
Jordan Travis was hurt in a meaningless game against North Alabama, but the Seminoles rallied to beat rival Florida and Louisville in the ACC Title Game. Their prize was a matchup against an angry Georgia team in the Orange Bowl, as the College Football Playoff Committee shunned Mike Norvell’s team. This isn’t the same roster and Travis has moved on, but the goal remains the same.
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Offense
OC Alex Atkins is suspended for the first three games due to recruiting violations, but he’s had all spring and summer to work with DJU and the others in the QB room. A proven QB seemed to be a necessity for Atkins and Norvell and they got one, but now let’s see how he’s progressed under Smith’s tutelage.
He has all kinds of weapons, as Keon Coleman and Trey Benson are gone, but this is a fast and talented group of backs and receivers. Roydell Williams ran for Alabama last year and Lawrance Toafili had 6.7 yards per pop in support of Benson. The loss of a borderline first-rounder like Coleman is a big deal, but look for the Seminoles to rely even heavier on the run after leading the conference in 2022 with well over 200 yards per game.
Defense
Jared Verse may not be walking back through that Tallahassee door, but the Seminoles were extremely deep at defensive end and will continue to get after the quarterback. They had 46 sacks last season and Verse had nine of them. Braden Fiske also took six of them with him to the NFL, but DC Adam Fuller has a lot to work with here and, honestly, the Seminoles were 67th in yards per carry allowed, so you could run on them anyway.
It was all about stopping the pass and Florida State did that well enough to rank 24th in yards per play allowed. If they don’t lead as often as they did last season, we’ll see if the leaky run defense presents a problem, but there is still a lot of talent from a top-20 scoring defense that still faces a very manageable schedule.
Outlook
The Seminoles are the favorite to win the ACC, as they’ll get Clemson at home and have a little extra prep before facing Miami. DJU will determine the ceiling for this team, as a ground-and-pound attack with a top-tier defense leads to a very high floor. With a win total of 9.5, I have Florida State at 9.52 wins, so I lean closer to 10-2 than 9-3.
Pick: Over 9.5 Wins
