Florida vs. LSU Odds and Picks
In a primetime SEC matchup, the LSU Tigers host the Florida Gators at Tiger Stadium on Saturday, September 13th. All year, we’re going to be diving into some of the biggest college football games of the season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds and picks for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 3 College Football Betting Hub for a look at all of our college football betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How to Watch Florida vs. LSU
Where: Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana
When: Saturday, September 13th at 7:30 pm ET
Channel: ABC
Florida vs. LSU Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Wednesday, September 10th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: LSU -278, Florida +225
Spread: LSU -7.5 (-105), Florida +7.5 (-115)
Total: Over 47.5 (-110), Under 47.5 (-110)
Florida vs. LSU Analysis
There’s some pretty clear reverse line movement in looking at this game. Our VSiN betting splits show that LSU opened as a 9.5-point favorite in this one. However, while the Tigers have been the public side here, the line has dropped to 7.5. With that in mind, the sharp money is clearly on Florida.
Not only do the splits favor the Gators, but there’s some other stuff that favors the road team. For starters, Florida is 4-0 against the spread as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points under Billy Napier. The Gators are also getting star defensive tackle Caleb Banks back, which should help solidify the defensive line. On top of all of that, while Florida’s loss to South Florida last week has people dumping all over this program, it’s worth noting that the Bulls are a good team. Sure, the Gators should have won that one, but it’s probably a little too early to start digging Florida’s grave. This is a talented team and there’s a lot of season left.
Having said all of that, I do find it hard to believe this Gators team can hang around in a road game with these Tigers. The reason is that the Florida offense hasn’t clicked yet. The Gators are outside the Top 60 in yards per play (5.5), and DJ Lagway didn’t look comfortable against South Florida in Week 2. Now, Florida is going up against an LSU team that is allowing only 3.6 yards per play, which puts the team right outside the Top 10 in that category. Blake Baker, a brilliant defensive coach, now has the talent he needs to overwhelm opposing offenses, and it’s an opportunity I see him running with. The Tigers have some stud pass-rushers, and they also have elite corners. That makes it hard to imagine this being the get-right spot for the Gators offense.
I’m also not too worried about the LSU offense putting up points against Florida. I know the Tigers offensive line has struggled a bit early on, but Garrett Nussmeier is a big-game player. And he’s throwing to some extremely talented pass-catchers. So, once that O-Line starts to gel, this offense is going to go to new heights. Perhaps it’ll happen this week, as Brian Kelly likely got all over his team after a lackluster performance against Louisiana Tech.
Speaking of Kelly, for all of his faults as a coach, LSU is 16-0 straight-up and 10-5-1 ATS as a home favorite with him on the sidelines, according to StatSharp. Kelly might not be the best coach when it comes to winning big games, but he’s really good about winning the ones he’s supposed to win. This qualifies as one of those, even if Florida is a massive brand.
Florida vs. LSU Prediction
I’m a little higher on Florida than most and this is a lot of points for an SEC game. So, I wouldn’t be rushing to lay a touchdown with LSU in this one. However, if you must play the spread, I’d lay 6.5 at a juiced price. But I do love LSU to win this game. I have the Tigers parlayed with Tennessee +10.5 against Georgia, and I might look to use LSU in other teasers or parlays.
Lean: LSU -6.5 (-139)
