Hawaii Rainbow Warriors:
Timmy Chang enters his third season as head coach of Hawaii with his most experienced roster. Fifteen starters are back in a Rainbow Warriors uniform, and the former Hawaii signal-caller has his program primed to surprise some teams in the Mountain West.
Offense
Brayden Schager is among the best returning quarterbacks in the conference. The senior was the fourth-highest graded quarterback in the Mountain West last season (76.1). He threw for 3,525 yards and led the league in touchdown passes (26). Schager is an excellent deep-ball thrower who completed the most passes of 20 or more yards downfield in the Mountain West.
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The big question for Hawaii will be the status of leading returning receiver Steven McBride. McBride caught 63 passes for 1,024 yards last season. He was arrested and suspended from the team in July, and could miss the season. Other than McBride, the other five leading from last season return, making this one of the most experienced wide receiver groups in the country.
Schager will play behind an offensive line with three starters back, and his backfield returns its top rusher – Landon Sims – from last season. Hawaii averaged just 5.1 yards per play and finished 67th in EPA per play (0.039). With all of this returning experience, the Rainbow Warriors should be better in 2024.
Defense
Seven starters are back for this group, but the losses are heaviest along the defensive line. All four starters from last season are gone. This was already a group which allowed 4.6 yards per carry on the ground and 6.2 yards per play. With a brand new defensive line, these numbers could be static for 2024.
On the backend Hawaii brings back most of its defense from last season. The problem is that this was not a particularly effective group. The Rainbow Warriors were 113th in opponent EPA per dropback. Only Jojo Forest and Caleb Brown – two backup corners – posted a PFF coverage grade over 70 last season.
Dennis Thurman comes in as defensive coordinator this season. A change in scheme could help Hawaii improve, and Thurman has NFL experience. Still, reasonable improvement would still put this unit at average at best this season.
Outlook
If there was a season in which Chang would exceed expectations, it would be this one. The Rainbow Warriors should have one of the better offenses in the conference. They have a schedule that is extremely manageable. Opponents like UCLA, Boise State and UNLV will be challenging, but there are five or more wins out there if Hawaii plays up to its standards this season. The market has pushed this win total up, but the protection of a push at five wins makes this win total an option still.
Pick: Over 5 Wins
