Heisman Trophy
Key Takeaways:
- Nine of the top 10 Heisman Trophy favorites are QBs
- Will Lincoln Riley have his fourth Heisman winner?
- Transfer portal long shots to think about
Colorado two-way superstar Travis Hunter brought the Heisman Trophy to Boulder last season. As a receiver, Hunter had 96 catches for 1,258 yards and 15 touchdowns. As a corner, he totaled 35 tackles and had 11 passes defended with four interceptions. Hunter also had a PFF grade of 90.3 in coverage, which was tied for the third-highest mark in the nation.
In many ways, Hunter blew up everything we knew about the Heisman Trophy. Dating back to 2000, only five non-quarterbacks have won this award. All of those guys played for teams that won at least 10 games; Colorado only won nine. Hunter was also the first defensive player to win since cornerback Charles Woodson did it with Michigan in 1997.
This season, things should return to normalcy. Nine of the top 10 players listed on the DraftKings Sportsbook oddsboard are quarterbacks, and there hasn’t been much buzz about players that will be contributing on both sides of the ball. Ohio State head coach Ryan Day has mentioned it’s a possibility for safety Caleb Downs, and Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham is interested in seeing if corner Smith Snowden can contribute as a slot receiver. But I don’t think anybody will be relied on as much as Hunter was, and I don’t see anybody delivering quite like that.
Taking all of that into consideration, your money should really be on the quarterbacks in 2025. And while I’m excited to see Texas’ Arch Manning, the betting favorite in this market, with the keys to Steve Sarkisian’s offense, I’m not even considering him. That said, there is one chalkier option that’s worth a look, and I’m also eyeing three players a little further down the board.
Garrett Nussmeier, LSU (+900)
Nussmeier threw for 4,052 yards with 29 touchdowns in his first year as the starter for LSU. Only four players in college football threw for more yards, and there’s no reason Nussmeier can’t turn things up a notch in 2025.
With another year of experience under his belt, Nussmeier should be able to cut down on the 12 picks he threw last season. Though that shouldn’t come at the expense of his numbers. The Tigers threw the ball 59.21% of the time last year, which was the eighth-highest mark in the nation. LSU is going to air it out as often as anyone in 2025, as Nussmeier can make every throw in the book, and he’ll be distributing to an elite group of receivers.
This offense isn’t all that different from the one Jayden Daniels won a Heisman Trophy with in 2023. Of course, Nussmeier doesn’t have Daniels’ running ability, but he might not need it. With his ability to throw, just racking up numbers and helping LSU reach double-digit wins during the regular season should be enough. The latter won’t be easy with the Tigers having a difficult schedule, but you can’t rule it out. LSU used the transfer portal to fill most of its holes on defense. If defensive coordinator Blake Baker can make the pieces fit, there’s a real possibility this will be the best team in the country.
Marcel Reed, Texas A&M (50-1)
John Mateer is going to be a popular Heisman pick, as everybody loves grabbing dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks — especially when they play for one of the biggest brands in college football. However, while Mateer is definitely an intriguing pick, I’d rather double the potential payout and take a shot on Reed.
Last season, Reed threw for 1,864 yards with 15 touchdowns and six picks, and he added another 547 yards and seven scores on the ground. Reed is an accurate passer, and he’s flat-out electric when he looks to run. Now, Reed is set to play behind an offensive line that could win the Joe Moore Award. The Aggies also added a star wide receiver in NC State transfer Kevin Concepcion.
With more familiarity in offensive coordinator Collin Klein’s system, plus a much better group of weapons around him, Reed should take a massive leap in 2025. That leap could also mean a similar jump for Texas A&M, which should have one of the best defenses in the nation. So, don’t rule out Reed having the stats and team success you need to have a chance at this.
Jayden Maiava, USC (70-1)
In last year’s guide, I suggested taking Miller Moss and Maiava to win the Heisman Trophy, as Lincoln Riley’s offense has produced three winners: Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Caleb Williams. Unfortunately, that strategy didn’t end up working out too well. Moss ended up winning the job, but he had a rough go at things behind a shaky offensive line and USC underperformed in close games. Eventually, Riley benched Moss for Maiava, who did some good things down the stretch.
Maiava ended the 2024 season by throwing for 295 yards with four touchdowns and three picks in a win over Texas A&M in the Las Vegas Bowl. That performance painted a pretty good picture of who Maiava is as a quarterback. The former UNLV star has a world of talent, but he’s a little mistake-prone.
If Maiava can clean things up just a little, there’s a chance he’ll put up some outrageous numbers this season. USC’s offensive line should be a little better and the Trojans have plenty of talent at wideout in Ja’Kobi Lane and Makai Lemon. Also, while road games against Notre Dame and Oregon could spell trouble, they’ll also give Maiava two chances to make a case for himself with a massive audience.
Simply put, this system is as quarter-friendly as any, and Maiava has the arm and legs to become the next Riley success story. He just has to stay out of his own way — and beat out true freshman Husan Longstreet for the job.
Thomas Castellanos, Florida State (120-1)
Castellanos threw for 1,366 yards with 18 touchdowns and only five interceptions for Boston College last year. He also completed 61.5% of his passes and cut down on his turnovers, showing growth as a passer in comparison to his 2023 season. That’s big looking forward to 2025, as we know he’s a dynamic runner; Castellanos rushed for 1,113 yards and 13 scores in 2023.
Castellanos is now playing for a much better team, in a much better offense. Gus Malzahn, previously the head coach at UCF, is bringing his fast-paced system to Tallahassee, where the offensive line is expected to be much better. There will also be a lot of weapons for Castellanos to work with, including former Tennessee wide receiver Squirrel White — plus a couple of awesome tight ends.
It’s more realistic than people think for Florida State to go from worst to first in the ACC. Mike Norvell has proven to be one of the best coaches in the nation, and he was relentless in filling needs in the transfer portal.
If the Seminoles do complete that type of turnaround, that will likely mean that Castellanos had a monster season. And let’s not forget that Malzahn has coached a Heisman winner before. He was the offensive coordinator for Auburn when Cam Newton won it back in 2010.
