Independence Bowl Preview: California vs. Texas Tech
On Saturday, December 16th, college football bowl game action rolls on with the California Golden Bears facing the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Independence Bowl at 9:15 pm ET at Independence Stadium in Shreveport, Louisiana.
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California Golden Bears vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (-2.5, 58.5)
Odds as of 12/11, 2:40 p.m. PT
Texas Tech had a pretty disappointing regular season, as the Red Raiders finished 6-6 after having been tabbed as a sleeper to compete in the Big 12. However, Joey McGuire’s team did figure things out down the stretch, winning three of its last four games. The one loss was a 57-7 defeat at the hands of a Texas team that made the College Football Playoff. So, it’s probably safe to throw that loss out and focus on the positives. And one positive is that Texas Tech should love the team it drew in this bowl game.
California did end the season on a three-game winning streak, but that run included wins over weak Washington State and Stanford teams. So, it’s hard to be overly impressed there. And overall, Cal’s defense wasn’t on par with what we’ve seen out of Justin Wilcox’s teams in the past. The Golden Bears gave up at least 50 points in four of their nine games against Pac-12 opponents, and Cal also gave up at least 34 points in another two of those games. This defense got shredded whenever it faced good competition, and its rushing defense was a big part of the problem. That’s not a good sign with the Bears now facing a Red Raiders team that has a very good offensive line, plus Tahj Brooks running behind it. Brooks rushed for 1,443 yards with nine touchdowns this season, and I think there’s a decent shot he flirts with 150 yards here.
If Cal is running the ball efficiently in this game, that would then open things up for Behren Morton to have a productive day as a passer. Morton was banged up throughout the course of this season, but McGuire said that his sophomore quarterback is getting closer to full strength after having not played since November 24. Morton has had plenty of time to focus on his recovery, and I’d expect that to result in a big game. He was excellent early in the season — he threw for 10 touchdowns and only two picks over his first six games — and this secondary is very beatable.
Defensively, I think the Red Raiders are in a decent spot here. Cal running back Jaydn Ott is coming off a strong season, as he rushed for 1,260 yards with 11 touchdowns. So, he’s a player that can definitely make some plays in this game. But the Red Raiders will likely load the box and try to force freshman quarterback Fernando Mendoza to beat them over the top. Mendoza played well when he took over the starting job for Cal, but he’s largely unproven as a passer. And Texas Tech is a solid defensive team when it comes to slowing down the passing game. That means that the Red Raiders should be fine if they’re looking to slow Ott down and take some risks in the secondary. This will also be the biggest game of Mendoza’s young career, so you never know how he’ll respond.
It just feels like a good argument can be made that Texas Tech is the better team on both sides of the ball here, so this feels like a small amount of points to be laying. The Red Raiders are also 2-0 both straight-up and against the spread when playing with two or more weeks of rest under McGuire. On top of that, they’re 9-4 ATS when facing teams that allow a completion percentage of 58.0% or worse in that span. So, they tend to take care of business against teams that can’t take advantage of them having a mediocre passing game.
Pick: Texas Tech -2.5
Game Trends from Steve Makinen
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl – Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
* CALIFORNIA is 12-2-1 Over in the last 15 traveling more than 1,000 miles
* TEXAS TECH is 10-5 Over in the last 15 bowl games
Systems Match: PLAY OVER the total
