Kansas Jayhawks:

Kansas has improved its win total each season under Lance Leipold since he took over in 2021. The Jayhawks will look to continue that trend this season and win double-digit games for the first time in 17 years. With 13 starters back and a healthy veteran quarterback in Jalon Daniels, it would seem Kansas is primed to achieve that feat.

Offense

Daniels played in just 12 games over the last two seasons, but Kansas was able to go 15-11 SU/15-10-1 ATS because of the presence of Jason Bean. This season, Bean departs, meaning the health of Daniels will be paramount to the Jayhawks’ success. He totaled 2,452 yards passing and rushing in 2022 and accounted for 25 touchdowns. If Daniels can stay on the field, Kansas has one of the better signal-callers in the conference.

 

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Kansas returns its top two receivers from last season in Lawrence Arnold and Quentin Skinner. The duo combined for 1,364 yards and eight touchdowns. At running back, Devin Neal is back after a 1,280-yard season. Neal is a powerful runner who takes care of the football. He fumbled just once last season and averaged 3.63 yards per carry after contact.

The Jayhawks were an explosive offense in 2023. They finished seventh in EPA per rush, averaged 7.1 yards per play and finished 18th in the country in scoring (33.7). With Daniels back and healthy Kansas should replicate the production from 2023. If Daniels is forced to miss time, this is not a position group that can save the Jayhawks’ season like Bean did last year with a former walk-on and a true freshman in reserve.

Defense

Similar to its compatriots in the Big 12, Kansas ranked among the worst in the country in many defensive metrics. The Jayhawks were 100th in opponent EPA; allowed 5.8 yards per play and 4.5 yards per rush attempt. With six starters back, it is unlikely we see much of an improvement from this group this season.

Among the defensive losses are Kansas’ top two graded starters by PFF standards: defensive end Austin Booker and safety Kenny Logan. How much improvement can occur with a bad defensive team that lost its two best defenders?

A positive is that the cornerback position is largely intact from last season. Cobee Bryant and Mello Dotson return to man the outside, and behind them is safety Marvin Grant. Those three were members of a secondary that ranked 93rd in opponent EPA per dropback, but all three are seniors and give Kansas some steady play at key positions.

Outlook

The Jayhawks have a very high ceiling this season, but to achieve that, Daniels must be available. However, it would be foolish to expect a quarterback who has played in just 12 games the last two seasons to be available throughout the season. The Jayhawks do avoid both Utah and Oklahoma State, but with a poor defense and an oft-injured quarterback, the recommendation here can only be Under.

Pick: Under 8 Wins

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