LA Bowl Preview: UCLA vs. Boise State
It seemed that Boise State was all but dead in the Mountain West, but after a 3-2 start in conference and the firing of their head coach the Broncos finished the season 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games to win the conference and clinch a spot in the LA Bowl. UCLA had a litany of quarterback injuries that threatened to derail the season, but one of the best defenses in the country carried the Bruins to seven wins and a bowl game. These two teams meet this weekend in one of the most intriguing early bowl games of the postseason.
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UCLA Bruins (-3, 50) vs Boise State Broncos
Boise State lost quarterback Taylen Green to the transfer portal once the regular season ended, and it would seem that freshman quarterback CJ Tiller is set to make the first start of his career in Los Angeles. Tiller is a three-star pro-style quarterback who has played just two snaps this season, and his first start comes against a dangerous defense.
The Bruins lost defensive end Laiatu Latu to an opt-out, but the rest of the defense remains intact. UCLA finished the regular season second in the country in opponent EPA per play and eighth in opponent EPA per dropback. Latu’s loss weakens the Bruins’ pass-rush, but this unit as a whole pressured opposing quarterbacks on 45.8% of their dropbacks. Even without Latu on the field this front seven will be able to get after Tiller.
Ethan Garbers is the expected starter for UCLA this weekend – Dante Moore entered the transfer portal – which gives the Bruins a significant advantage at the most important position. Garbers started six games and appeared in seven overall. He threw 9 touchdowns and committed a turnover-worthy play on just 1.7% of his pass attempts. Garbers will face a defense that is not as effective as Boise State defenses of the past.
The Broncos finished the season 71st in the country in opponent EPA per play overall. They struggled mostly on early downs – they ranked 82nd in opponent EPA per play on early downs – and against the run. Boise State’s pass rush was inconsistent this season as well, as it pressured opponents on just 28.1% of dropbacks.
The betting market jumped on the favorite early in this contest. UCLA is now as high as -4.5 at Circa Sports, but some shops – South Point and Station Casinos – are still at 3.5 as of Wednesday morning. It seems likely that UCLA closes as a 4-point favorite or better in this game, so those looking to back the Bruins should do so soon.
With that in mind, UCLA does look like the side to back in this contest. Their defense gets the benefit of facing a freshman quarterback making his first career start. The Bruins have not been the most consistent offense in the country – they rank 107th in EPA per play – but they face a below average defense that has had issues with its pass-rush and secondary. The motivation is likely stronger on the Boise State sideline, but the on-field strengths are more in favor of the favorite.
Play: UCLA (-3.5)
