LSU Tigers:

Brian Kelly is losing a lot of what made the LSU offense special last season, with Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels now playing for the Washington Commanders. Daniels’ top targets, Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., also heard their names called in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. However, Kelly has recruited like an animal in Baton Rouge, and this offense should hum once again. 

The question will be whether the defense can figure things out. The Tigers were one of the worst units in the SEC on that side of the ball, but they hired Missouri defensive coordinator Blake Baker to stabilize things. The unit also has some impressive talent at all three levels. 

 

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LSU could take a little bit to really start playing well, but the sky’s the limit if things come together quickly. The Tigers play most of their toughest games in Death Valley. 

Offense

Jayden Daniels threw for 3,812 yards with 40 touchdowns and only four picks last year, and he also rushed for 1,134 yards with 10 touchdowns. Replacing his production, along with a combined 2,746 yards and 31 touchdowns from Nabers and Thomas, will be tough. But Garrett Nussmeier proved that he’s up for the challenge, as he threw for 395 yards with three touchdowns in a win over Wisconsin in LSU’s bowl game. And the receiver room is still pretty damn good, with Kyren Lacy back after hauling in 30 catches for 558 yards and seven touchdowns last year. Lacy will be joined by a few other players who will be asked to step into bigger roles, along with transfers CJ Daniels and Zavion Thomas. On top of that, Mason Taylor is a legit pass-catching weapon at tight end. 

The Tigers could also feature the running game a bit more with Daniels gone, as Kaleb Jackson looks like an absolute star out of the backfield. This will be something of a committee, but Jackson should rise to the top. And LSU’s offensive line should be great.  

Defense

The Tigers will have one of the better groups of linebackers in the country, as Harold Perkins Jr. is one of the best defensive players in the SEC and will be working alongside Greg Penn III. LSU also happens to have some studs in the secondary, so this passing defense should take a step forward after allowing 256.0 yards per game in 2023. Opponents also had a QB Rating of 144.0 against LSU, and that simply has to go down. 

The biggest question mark on this group will be the defensive line. Opponents picked up chunk yardage against LSU far too frequently in 2023. However, the Tigers have some trustworthy contributors along the defensive line, and they added some rotational bodies in the transfer portal. That should be enough for Baker to work with. 

Outlook

The Tigers will play eight games in which they’re clearly the more talented team. That leaves LSU in a situation in which it needs to win two out of the following three contests: vs. Ole Miss, at Texas A&M and vs. Alabama. I think it’s more likely they win two of those than lose two, so I’m going with the Over. But I’d be pretty surprised if this doesn’t end in a push. 

Pick: Over 9 Wins

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