MAC
This originally appeared in our 2025 VSiN College Football Betting Guide released on Tuesday, August 5. Become a VSiN Pro Subscriber and get our betting guides as part of your subscription.
A 13th team and six new head coaches are the biggest storylines in the Mid-American Conference this year. Most of the top teams have experienced and tenured head coaches, but some of the middling teams and bottom-feeders are looking for a spark and hope that they have found one.
This is an even more difficult conference to gauge nowadays with college football free agency than it used to be. In the past, the MAC was just a conference with a lot of mediocre teams, so everybody kind of beat everybody except for the two or three teams that really stood out, usually Toledo, Ohio, and Miami of Ohio. Bowling Green, Western Michigan, and Northern Illinois would have moments, but sustained success was hard to come by.
These days, any good players from Group of Five conferences are at risk of being poached by power programs. It is much easier to throw some NIL money at a developed, proven player than to attempt to get a freshman to not only stay, but also develop over the first couple of seasons in the program. So, blue bloods and higher-revenue teams simply go shopping in the MAC, AAC, Sun Belt, and Mountain West.
The teams who are less impacted than others in the MAC for this season are the favorites and make up the well-defined top tier of the conference. The others will hope for lightning in a bottle or a new voice to allow them to be competitive.
Most bettors don’t really care about the MAC until MACtion begins in November. While it is true that we have plenty of sample size to evaluate by that time, the paycheck games and the early-season non-conference tilts against comparable opponents can lead to some good betting opportunities right from the outset.
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Akron Zips
It feels ridiculous to start with Akron, whose season is pretty much over before it starts on an annual basis, but is truly over before it starts this season. The Zips are banned from bowl contention because of their low APR scores. Their Academic Progress Rate failed to meet the NCAA benchmarks, so the bowl drought, which dates back to a 50-3 drubbing by Florida Atlantic in the 2017 Boca Raton Bowl, will be extended another season.
But, we’re going alphabetically with our team previews, so we begin with the Zips in what looks to be another throwaway season in the Rubber City. It’s something of a shame, as Akron’s four wins were the most since 2018 and matched the first two seasons for Joe Moorhead and surpassed the three seasons of Tom Arth from 2019-21.
Offense
On one hand, Moorhead, who has been regarded as a sharp offensive mind, has been a decent hire for the Zips. They have scored over 20 PPG in two of three seasons with him at the helm, something that they hadn’t done since 2017. The Zips won three conference games last season. They won four over the previous four seasons combined. On the other hand, the low APR scores are a bad reflection on him and the players within the program.
Ben Finley is back to lead the offense after posting a 16/9 TD/INT ratio last season. The top two rushers and the top three wide receivers are gone. And while 20.4 PPG and 5.2 YPP are good for a program like Akron, those are not good numbers for an offense. The Zips were 110th in yards per play and 120th in points per game. In a wasted season, maybe Moorhead plays a potential QB of the future late in the year.
Defense
For the three Moorhead seasons, Tim Tibesar has been by his side as the DC. In those years, Akron is a combined -33 in turnover margin and -72 in sack margin. The Zips did allow 151 points in three games against Power Four opponents to skew the numbers, but they still allowed 27 PPG in conference play and only had 13 sacks while finishing -7 in TO margin.
As I’ve said with other conferences, “returning production” is an oxymoron with a lot of bad units. Akron only has two returning starters on defense and both are in the secondary. There are a ton of JUCO transfers and low-rated recruits on both sides of the ball, but especially the defense. The top five tacklers are gone from a unit that only had three interceptions last year. This will be a bad defense again.
Outlook
The Zips get one bye week during the season, as their season will end on November 18 against Bowling Green. Their other bye week is what would’ve been the final week of the regular season. The schedule is not terribly difficult and the non-conference schedule is much softer, but this roster stinks and the team has no tangible goals.
Pick: Under 4.5 Wins
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Ball State Cardinals
Mike Uremovich decided to make the move from Indianapolis to Muncie, as the former head coach of the Butler Bulldogs gets his first FBS opportunity at Ball State. Outside of a major outlier in 2020 with a 7-1 record, Mike Neu held on to this job for a very long time with just one winning season and two bowl game appearances. Maybe Uremovich can up the standards, but he inherits very little from last season’s team.
The Midwest ties run deep for Uremovich, who got his Bachelor’s degree at Purdue and his Master’s degree at Northern Illinois. He’s primarily coached in Illinois and Indiana with the exception of stints at NC State and Temple. Uremovich wants to run the ball. Butler ran for nearly 215 yards per game last season, so his focus with this team will be on the offensive line and the running backs.
Offense
Frankly, that’s probably a good thing because QB Kadin Semonza posted a 25/10 TD/INT ratio and 2,904 passing yards last season, but transferred to Tulane. This is going to be more of an option offense and Semonza didn’t fit that, so he was wise to leave. Kiael Kelly and Walter Taylor, a big 6-foot-5 Colorado transfer, are likely to both see action. QB runs are a massive part of the offense and were a big reason why Butler had over 200 yards per contest on the ground.
The top three rushers from last season are gone, so Uremovich, who will function as his own OC alongside pass game coordinator Craig Harmon, has to find somebody to be the bell cow. The role of the wide receivers will be diminished in this offense, so the fact that nobody returns with more than 23 catches is a non-factor.
Defense
This is where Ball State could make some strides. Last year’s defense had one returning starter and gave up over 40 points per game. This unit was 132nd in yards per play against and points per game, better than only Kent State and Tulsa in both categories. Strangely, DC Jeff Knowles kept his job, but that’s because he was Uremovich’s DC previously at Butler. Apparently that was an indicator as to the direction the Ball State athletic department wanted to go.
A handful of starters are back and maybe Year 2 will be better, but the offense playing with more ball control should help. That being said, Ball State only faced an average of 65 plays per game on defense last season and still got shredded. Even conference opponents in a bad conference hung 37 PPG.
Outlook
Woof. This is a depressing outlook for the Cardinals. Uremovich is overhauling everything on offense and it seems unlikely that much will change on defense. The only saving grace for Ball State is that they play New Hampshire, Akron, and Kent State at home. Of course, that also means they have to find another win somewhere.
Pick: Under 3.5 Wins
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Bowling Green Falcons
Eddie George is back in the Buckeye State. The College Football Hall of Famer and 1995 Heisman Trophy winner joined the coaching ranks in 2021 at Tennessee State and has now made the leap to the FBS ranks at Bowling Green. He was only 24-22 at Tennessee State, but 9-4 in his final season, which included a playoff berth and a little bit of hardware as the Big South-OVC Coach of the Year.
That was Tennessee State’s first conference championship since 1999 and first playoff appearance since 2013. George probably expected to finish out his five-year deal, but then Bowling Green came calling after Scot Loeffler took a job with the Philadelphia Eagles. That also meant a late start in terms of recruiting and the transfer portal, which are the two biggest concerns for the Falcons this season.
Offense
At least the QB position seems to be filled with three-time transfer Drew Pyne. Connor Bazelak is gone after posting an 18/5 TD/INT ratio and so is top pass-catcher Harold Fannin, who was taken by the Browns in the third round. All of the skill positions need an overhaul, but the one positive is that the most experienced part of the offense is the offensive line. That is especially important because we’re likely to see heavier sets out of the Falcons offense with George and co-OCs Greg Nosal and Travis Partridge.
Tight ends and wide receivers will be expected to block in what will probably mirror more of an old-school, pro-style offense. I’m really intrigued to see how it goes because the MAC is not really known as a physical conference, but BG will attempt to be its most physical team.
Defense
Unfortunately, there are only 11 players on the field at one time, so Jeff Fisher’s son Brandon cannot run a 7-9 defense. All jokes aside, Fisher was the DC at Tennessee State and he’ll bring his scheme to the Falcons. Like the offensive side of things, the defense is going to try to be extremely physical at the point of attack. The uptick in toughness certainly helped Tennessee State and I could see it doing the same at BG, at least over time.
To me, this side of the ball is far more concerning. One player with more than 25 tackles is back from a defense that was actually pretty good last season with 21.6 PPG and just 5.3 YPP. Bowling Green had 38, 33, and 33 sacks in the last three Loeffler seasons. Fisher’s units were strong all four years at Tennessee State, but he has another rebuild on his hands.
Outlook
Undoubtedly the most interesting team in the MAC. I think there’s a wide range of outcomes here. So I’m torn, mostly because the non-conference schedule is brutal and BG plays four games against teams coming off of byes. They’re only off of a bye themselves in one of them. That said, the Falcons do play Eastern Michigan, Akron, and UMass to end the season on a potential high note. If George has them going early, that’s a nice finish.
Pick: Over 6.5 Wins
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Buffalo Bulls
Pete Lembo is a damn good football coach. Buffalo went from 3-9 to 9-4 last season in Lembo’s first year, as he got back on the sidelines as the head man for the first time since 2016. The 55-year-old bounced around after leaving Ball State at the end of 2015, spending a couple years with Maryland, one with Rice, two with Memphis, and three with South Carolina before Buffalo hired him.
And all he did running his own program was take Buffalo to the best record they’ve had since 2018 and tie for the second-most wins in a season. Maybe the most impressive thing is that Lembo returns the bulk of his production from last season’s Bahamas Bowl victors. Quarterback is not one of them, but the Bulls may have upgraded there anyway.
Offense
As a side note, Lembo led Buffalo to their best special teams performance in quite some time, which was his role with the Gamecocks from 2021-23. The offense was on par with the 2021 version in terms of points per game and yards per play, but there is room for improvement and his name is Ta’Quan Roberson. The former UConn starter transferred in from Kansas State to replace CJ Ogbonna, who had a 19/5 TD/INT ratio and was the second-leading rusher.
Roberson can run around a bit, too, and he’s probably a better passer than Ogbonna. Furthermore, Buffalo still has top rusher Al-Jay Henderson, who had over 1,000 yards, and top receiver Victor Snow. Those are rarities for G5 programs for this season. The offensive line is mostly intact and Buffalo has a great chance at their best offensive numbers since Lance Leipold was leading the program.
Defense
The defense made some big strides last season as well, though maybe not in the areas that are most often mentioned. Buffalo improved by one point per game and 0.2 yards per play under first-year DC Joe Bowen, but they had 15 more sacks, 0.9 fewer yards per carry allowed, and 22 takeaways for a +9 turnover margin. Leading tackler and best defensive player Shaun Dolac is gone, taking 168 stops with him and a team-high five interceptions, but nearly everyone else is back.
Most notably, Kobe Stewart, who had 9.5 sacks, and Red Murdock, who had 14.5 tackles for loss. In Year 2 of the scheme, with a lot of the same talent, improvement is not only doable, but expected. After all, despite some gaudy individual numbers, the Bulls still gave up 29 PPG and over 420 yards on average in conference play.
Outlook
The Bulls finished on a five-game heater last season, including a suffocating defensive performance against a heavily-depleted Liberty team. With others in the conference dropping back a bit, Buffalo may be the team in the best position to take advantage. They avoid Toledo in the regular season and may very well have a date with them in Detroit on December 5. I like 5/1 to win the MAC and Over 7.5 wins.
Pick: Over 7.5 Wins
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Central Michigan Chippewas
Another team looking to get more physically at the point of attack is Central Michigan. Former Army offensive line coach Matt Drinkall has teamed up with former Eastern Washington OC Jim Chapin for what should be a new-look Chippewas team. In Jim McElwain’s final season, the Chips did run it a lot more than they threw it, yet still finished -17 in turnover margin. Central Michigan was actually 125th in the nation in pass attempts and finished with more interceptions (12) than touchdowns (11).
The 22 turnovers on offense weren’t great, but the five takeaways on defense were even worse. So, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Drinkall and Chapin put together a run-heavy scheme. Something new might work better than something old, seeing as how McElwain brought a sense of stability and improved culture to the program, but also had three straight losing seasons before retiring.
Offense
As mentioned, Chapin was at Eastern Washington, which used to be one of the more prolific passing offenses in the nation. Due to injuries, Chapin switched gears last season and the Eagles found a ton of success running the rock. Perhaps we see more balance here, as it’s not like the Chips have much experience on offense or a whole lot of returning production.
With Drinkall’s background, though, running the ball makes sense and we’re likely to see a much more disciplined Central Michigan team with a better gas tank across the board. The Chips were 105th in average penalty yards per game, so that’s one easy area to fix. Joey Labas probably gets the first crack at QB, but everything should be up for grabs with the scheme change and a bunch of new faces.
Defense
It goes without saying, but Sean Cronin will have to find some turnovers from his defense somewhere. I am inherently skeptical of defensive coaches that come from service academies because they can often lean on the offense’s ability to condense the game and limit the opposition’s play count and number of drives. Cronin was Army’s defensive line coach last season.
Cronin does inherit a pretty experienced and productive front seven, but 19 pass breakups are gone from Da’Raun McKinney and Donte Kent. Kent was actually drafted in the seventh round. It’s wild to think a DB would get taken from a team that had two interceptions, but that speaks to the type of athlete CMU has to replace. While the Chips lacked takeaways, they also allowed under 200 passing yards per game for the first time since 2018.
Outlook
For a team that mustered fewer than 300 yards per game in MAC play, it seems to be a big ask to find enough improvement to qualify for a bowl game this season. Central Michigan plays at Akron and Kent State for two of their easier conference tilts. The Under 5.5 is a little juicy, but 5-7 or 4-8 seem more likely than 6-6 or better. It’ll take time to get tougher at the line of scrimmage.
Pick: Under 5.5 Wins
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Eastern Michigan Eagles
In a sport where loyalty is a laughable notion these days, Chris Creighton is in his 12th season with the Eagles. The 56-year-old fell short of a bowl game for the first time since 2017 in a non-COVID year, so there might be a little bit of pressure to perform better this season. Eastern Michigan was actually 5-2 with losses to Washington and Miami of Ohio before just completely falling apart at the end of the season.
Is it possible that Creighton lost the team a little bit? We may not know, but he has very little production back on either side of the ball. Missing a bowl game might have been a blessing in disguise since it gave Creighton and his assistants more time to go portal shopping with a big chunk of the roster to replace.
Offense
Former Michigan State Spartan Noah Kim is back in-state, along with Maryland transfer Cameron Edge, so there’s some Power Four flair to the quarterback room. That’s good because Cole Snyder had 402 of the 416 pass attempts last season and 15 of the 17 passing touchdowns. Of course, he also had nine of the 10 interceptions and 33 of the 35 sacks. He wound up the second-leading rusher with just 323 yards and 2.4 yards per carry.
Top wideout Terry Lockett is back, but this was an underwhelming offense all the way around. Weber State transfer Dontae McMillan ran for nearly 1,700 yards over four seasons with the Wildcats, so maybe he’ll inject some life into a dormant running game that hasn’t had at least four yards per carry since 2016.
Defense
Virtually everybody that played a big part on defense is gone. That may not be a bad thing, since the Eagles gave up over 400 yards per game and 32 points per contest in conference action. This was not a good offensive conference, but EMU struggled badly. The 2023 team badly overachieved going 6-7 with just 263 yards of offense per game and more than 400 allowed, so it seems like this past season was a bit of a correction on that front.
That means Creighton and his coaches are going to have to find a way to bring a little magic back with a team that was pretty accustomed to overachieving. We’ll see if they can make it work for a ton of transfers on the roster and a bunch of backups that will get a chance to start. I’m not exactly optimistic, especially with a lot of new coaches and new schemes to contend with in the conference.
Outlook
Creighton was 3-21 in his first two seasons and has gone 54-54 since. Last season’s 3-6 showing in league play was the team’s worst record since going 0-8 in 2015. I think the current landscape of college football is a lot for Creighton to overcome. You think of his better teams and he had time to cultivate players like Brogan Roback and Maxx Crosby. Times have changed.
Pick: Under 4.5 Wins
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Kent State Golden Flashes
November 26, 2022. That’s the last time that Kent State beat a FBS team. The only win over the last two seasons for the Golden Flashes came against Central Connecticut State. Not only that, but Kent State has only covered five times in 24 games over the last two seasons, so they’ve been even worse than the very low Vegas expectations. Kenni Burns was placed on leave just before spring practice and Mark Carney took over as the interim head coach.
As you would expect, nothing is expected of Kent State this season, who even lost their two best players from last season in WRs Chrishon McCray and Luke Floriea. A team that got outscored 44-14 on average in 2024 and 35-15 in 2023 obviously needs a ton of work and more than a facelift. Good luck to Carney, whose first head coaching gig is this one.
Offense
Tommy Ulatowski was the best QB on the roster last season and he’s gone. Devin Kargman and Ruel Tomlinson ran the Carney offense last season and may not even start with Fordham transfer CJ Montes on the roster. Carney was the QB at Fordham, so there may be a little nostalgia in his decision. Well, that and Montes is probably the best hope on the roster. McCray and Floriea combined for 84 of the 139 receptions, 1,404 of the 1,876 receiving yards, and 16 of the 18 touchdowns.
For all intents and purposes, Kent State has one returning starter on the offensive line and one who was the third wide receiver. Of course, like I’ve written about with other teams, that’s probably not a bad thing. Kent State was 133rd in scoring offense and 134th in yards per play out of 134 teams.
Defense
The defense was beyond terrible. Clearly the offense didn’t help much, but Kent State allowed nearly six yards per carry, seven yards per play, and finished dead last in scoring defense. Only Tulsa gave up more touchdowns. The secondary only mustered four interceptions and the defense has had just 30 sacks over the last two seasons. The offense has given up 84 in that span.
This is an atrocious team in the trenches and I’m not sure how that will improve this season. Most of the sacks and impact plays are gone and Kent State didn’t have a ton of time to peruse the portal. It is sad how far this program has fallen and I don’t know how that changes with what looks to be a temporary solution at head coach.
Outlook
I’m racking my brain to remember the last time I saw a win total of 1.5 with a college football team. Kent State might be favored over Merrimack in the opener and that’s probably it. The other decent spot for a win is at home against UMass, but even that’s a stretch. There are just so many more teams with hope, optimism, and new head coaches and schemes that another 0-8 in league play would not shock me.
Pick: Under 1.5 Wins
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Massachusetts Minutemen
You can’t help but hum Mark Morrison’s legendary classic “Return of the Mack” while thinking about UMass football this season, as they return to the MAC. They’ll do so with a first-year coach in Joe Harasymiak, who takes over for interim Shane Montgomery, who was 0-2 in replacing Don Brown, who went 6-28. Alex Miller was 0-3 as the interim replacing Walt Bell’s 2-23 record prior to Brown’s hiring. That’s a lot of losses and not many wins.
UMass joined the FBS ranks in 2012 as a member of the MAC and played a full FBS schedule in 2013. It was a short-lived romance, as the MAC and UMass broke up in 2015 because the school didn’t want to become a full-fledged member. Apparently those two exes were still thinking about each other, as the Minutemen are in the MAC once again.
Offense
Harasymiak has a couple of good options at QB, with Utah transfer Brandon Rose and Yale’s 2024 starter Grant Jordan. It has been a while since UMass has had good QB play, though they did score over 20 PPG the last two seasons after scoring just 16.3 PPG in 2021 and 12.5 PPG in 2022. The team is replacing leading rushers and leading receivers, but a 2-10 team with 5.1 yards per play could probably benefit from a clean slate and new personnel.
Mike Bajakian has been tasked with setting up the offense. That doesn’t sound all that inspiring given what Northwestern did on offense from 2020-23, but this is not the Big Ten. This is a rebuilt offense with a new scheme, so it will take some time. But, at least the bar is low.
Defense
Harasymiak is a defensive guy, as he was most recently the DC at Rutgers and was a co-DC with Minnesota prior to that. The offense obviously wasn’t good, but the defense was the worse of the two units, allowing over 35 PPG each of the last two seasons. Given that Brown’s area of expertise was allegedly defense, there should be some inherent skepticism as to how this side of the ball progresses.
The Minutemen have allowed well over six yards per play every season for a long time now. They also create zero negative plays with a max of 18 sacks over the last seven seasons. It is worth noting that UMass only had 10 turnovers on offense and still had a negative TO margin. One player with more than 40 tackles is back, but again, “returning production” is an oxymoron here.
Outlook
A new voice, a fresh start, and probably more of the same. That being said, the schedule isn’t too daunting, as they have a win total with 3.5 and vig on the Over. Unfortunately, the Kent State and Akron games are on the road, though they could be a road favorite over the Zips and will undoubtedly be favored over the Flashes. I still don’t see four wins in Year 1.
Pick: Under 3.5 Wins
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Miami of Ohio RedHawks
Chuck Martin’s 12th season with Miami will be his first without Brett Gabbert, as the 31-year-old finally ran out of eligibility. Nah, but seriously, what an accomplishment nowadays to spend 12 seasons with the same program. For both Martin and Gabbert. And Martin’s had a lot of good ones, too, as the 57-year-old has won two division titles outright, shared another, and tied for first in the conference this past season, its first without divisions.
Even though his overall record reads just 65-67, Martin is 51-32 in MAC games and has not had a losing season in conference since 2015. This program has been consistently competitive and Martin even has a 20-8 record overall and a 14-2 record in MAC play over the last two seasons. This season might represent his toughest one in about a decade, as he has an entire roster turnover.
Offense
Dequan Finn is back in the MAC and will be asked to fill the shoes of Gabbert, who was the third QB in program history to throw for over 10,000 yards, joining Zac Dysert and Ben Roethlisberger. I feel a little bad about Gabbert catching strays, as he was a warrior for the RedHawks with 53 games over six seasons, including all 14 games last season for the first time since he was a freshman in 2019.
But, Gabbert also threw a career-high 11 interceptions last season and had his lowest completion rate in five seasons at 57.3%. Miami still found enough big plays to have 6.1 yards per play, but they only mustered 24.1 PPG. Arguably the bigger loss is 1,000-yard rusher Keyon Mozee. With Kenny Tracy back off a torn ACL and a Virginia Tech transfer, OC Pat Welsh will find a ball carrier. And if not, Finn can do it with nearly 2,000 rushing yards to his name.
By the way, while I’m playfully trashing Gabbert, guess when Finn’s first season of college football was? Yep. 2019.
Defense
Martin’s teams are always good on defense and that will be the focal point as the offense starts from the ground up. The losses are not nearly as penal on paper for this unit, especially with top defensive back Silas Waters and his 12 pass breakups back. All-time leading tackler Matt Salopek is a huge loss as the captain and leader of the defense, but there are plenty of upperclassmen for Martin to rely on.
Something to watch with Miami is that they’ve been outstanding on special teams the last three seasons, but have a new special teams coordinator in Johnny Aylward, who was a graduate assistant for the RedHawks a few years ago.
Outlook
The 24-year-old Finn can probably whip this offense into shape and we know Martin will do that with the defense. The schedule is quite difficult by MAC standards and the RedHawks will go 1-3 in non-conference play. Can they go 6-2 in conference? I don’t think so, but it’s hard to count Martin out.
Pick: Under 6.5 Wins
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Northern Illinois Huskies
Two teams beat Notre Dame last season. One was Ohio State to win the National Championship. The other was Northern Illinois in one of the most surprising results of the season. The victory actually pushed the Huskies into the Top 25, which was very short-lived as they lost to Buffalo in their next game. In the end, NIU was 8-5, with four of their five losses by seven points or less. Only one of their wins, the Notre Dame victory, would be defined as a close game.
Thomas Hammock enters his seventh season and has picked up some really impressive wins over the last three seasons with Notre Dame, Boston College, and Georgia Tech. Any Power Four win for a program like this gets some attention, hopefully from the media, but especially from recruits and potential recruits. This is a totally rebuilt roster for 2025 with two new coordinators.
Offense
New OC Quinn Sanders was the head coach of the Charleston Golden Eagles in the Mountain East Conference the last three seasons and he’s taking a big leap here to be the OC and QB Coach of a FBS team. But, that said, the hire of the 36-year-old is an outside-the-box move and I’m always in favor of being more creative. It also means that the Huskies are going to flip to more of a spread offense look.
It’s good that Hammock saw the need for change. The defense carried NIU last season by allowing just 18.5 points per game. The offense had its lowest yards per play output in a non-COVID season since 2019 and only mustered 24.5 PPG, lower than even 2020 when the team was 0-6. With the top four wide receivers, starting QB Ethan Hampton, and the top two rushers gone, it’s a good time to try a new scheme, led by Josh Holst, who said the offense is similar to what he ran in high school.
Defense
The new-look offense may have a negative impact on the defensive numbers. NIU allowed just 4.7 yards per play last season, their first season under 5 YPP since 2018. The sacks increased from 23 to 36 and the run defense was a lot stouter. Well, now there’s a new DC in Rob Harley and not a single player with at least 40 tackles returns. Old DC Nick Benedetto was hired at Fresno State, who, ironically, NIU beat in the Potato Bowl.
The one area where the NIU defense failed was forcing turnovers and Harley, a former GA under Mark Dantonio and assistant under Pat Narduzzi, may have a much more aggressive approach. The Huskies had 14 takeaways in 13 games last season and finished with a negative turnover margin for the fifth time in six seasons.
Outlook
The average NIU game had 43 points last season, but with more tempo coming on offense and more aggression on defense, their games might be good Over bets early on. This is basically a total program overhaul, so the range of outcomes is pretty wide. They also play most of the MAC’s best, but I like the hires a lot. I think this is a low-key good team.
Pick: Over 6.5 Wins
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Ohio Bobcats
Continuity doesn’t always breed success, but it certainly has at Ohio. The Bobcats do lose head coach Tim Albin, as he took the drive down I-77 to Charlotte, but he was nice enough to leave behind OC Brian Smith, who was the interim head coach in Ohio’s Cure Bowl win over Jacksonville State. Smith’s promotion to full-time head coach means it should be business as usual in Athens and his side of the ball features a lot of familiar faces.
Albin also left behind defensive coordinator John Hauser, who was hired prior to the 2024 season. This has been one of the nation’s top defenses in each of the last two seasons. The Bobcats, who won the MAC Title for the first time since 1968 last season, enter this season with high hopes again and a very realistic chance at a repeat.
Offense
Sticking with that theme of continuity, Smith will still have his fingerprints all over the offense, but Scott Isphording, who has been an assistant with the Bobcats for over a decade, now has the OC title. Obviously those moves meant something to the players, as QB Parker Navarro stuck around, four of the five top pass catchers are back, and 2022-23 starting running back Sieh Bangura returned after a season at Minnesota.
The loss of Anthony Tyus, who ran for over 1,200 yards, is less of a loss with Bangura back and pretty fresh after not really seeing the field much at Minnesota. Top WR Coleman Owen did have 38 more receptions and nearly 800 more yards than anybody else, but that’s the only concerning area for the offense. Navarro threw for 2,423 and ran for 1,054 with 31 total touchdowns, so he’ll find playmakers or make plays himself.
Defense
The Ohio defense has allowed 15.8 and 18.1 PPG, respectively, over the last two seasons and has allowed fewer than five yards per play in each of them. Last year’s defense was 21st in the nation in YPP and 12th in scoring defense. While a lot of that talent is gone, the Bobcats do return their top two guys in tackles for loss and their top corner by interceptions.
Hauser actually made the move from rival Miami of Ohio to come to Ohio, so he’s well-versed in the MAC. That being said, Ohio lost 30-20 to Miami in the regular season before getting retribution in a big way with a 38-3 drubbing in the MAC Title Game. The Bobcats only allowed 14 PPG in conference action, so they have time to come together during a tough non-conference portion to rack up wins when it really matters.
Outlook
Rutgers, West Virginia, and Ohio State is a hell of a way to start the season, but then things soften up greatly. Ohio avoids Toledo, but does go on the road to Buffalo, and also doesn’t get the luxury of playing Kent State or Akron. From the looks of it, they’ll have to go 7-1 or better in conference play to get Over this number. I can’t see it, but obviously +280 to win the MAC is live.
Pick: Under 7.5 Wins
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Toledo Rockets
Led by another tenured coach in this conference in Jason Candle, Toledo has a great shot at returning to form. Last year’s 8-5 record was hardly disappointing, including a thrilling six-overtime victory against a Power Four opponent in Pitt at the GameAbove Bowl. However, Toledo was just 4-4 in MAC play, the first time since 2019 that they failed to finish with a winning record. Given that the Rockets were 8-1 against MAC foes in 2023, with the lone loss coming in the MAC Title Game, a .500 record was a bit of a surprise.
There are some notable losses on both sides of the ball for the Rockets, but they’re in much better shape than most of the other teams in the MAC, including those who are lined among the favorites.
Offense
A big reason why is because QB Tucker Gleason is back after posting a 24/8 TD/INT ratio with over 2,800 yards passing. Backup John Alan Richter is back as well, so the Rockets are probably the deepest at the position in the conference. They also brought in a really interesting RB transfer in Chip Trayanum, who is best-known for scoring the goal-line touchdown for Ohio State against Notre Dame back in 2023. Trayanum was at Arizona State last season and should be the feature back for a Toledo team that had just 3.4 yards per carry.
That was a drop of nearly two yards per carry for the Rockets, so Candle, who calls the plays for Toledo, seems to be placing a stronger emphasis on running the rock. Top WR Jerjuan Newton is gone, but Junior Vandeross had 85 catches, so they’re fine there and also on the offensive line.
Defense
The offense only mustered 21 PPG in conference action. The defense only allowed 23 PPG, so right on par with the season as a whole. It was another strong season for Vince Kehres’ defense, as the Mount Union legend has now had four straight defenses with 5.0 YPP or fewer allowed. Three of the top four tacklers are gone, including the top two guys, but Kehres will put together a good unit.
Unlike last season, when Toledo had to replace Quinyon Mitchell, they aren’t replacing an NFL draft pick this season. They have not allowed more than 362 yards per game since 2019.
Outlook
Toledo has no reason to come up short this season. As consistently solid as this team has been, though, the 45-year-old Candle only has two MAC titles in his nine seasons. They are favored to make it three this season. They avoid Ohio and Buffalo, but do go to Miami late in the year. Still, this should be the class of the conference and a conference where they can stack wins.
Pick: Over 8.5 Wins
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Western Michigan Broncos
A little bit of a spoiler alert here, but it seems like one of the most underrated teams in the MAC resides in Kalamazoo. Western Michigan hired Lance Taylor prior to the 2023 season. Taylor, who was the OC at Louisville and a position coach at Notre Dame, has taken this offense from 19.0 PPG right before he started up to 23.7 PPG in Year 1 and 28.9 PPG in Year 2. It was the defense that fell off last season, but this is likely to be a good offensive team again.
DC Scott Power took an assistant job with Wisconsin and Taylor went back to his Notre Dame roots to pull Chris O’Leary away from the LA Chargers. O’Leary was on Notre Dame’s staff with Taylor and spent last season coaching safeties in the NFL. I think this is the dark horse team that could make a run in the MAC.
Offense
Hayden Wolff is gone, but truth be told, an 18/8 TD/INT ratio is replaceable, even if he did complete two-thirds of his passes. Taylor went the JUCO route and grabbed Brady Jones from Riverside C.C. in California. I guess it’s fair to wonder how he will adapt to the cold weather of Michigan as the season goes along, but he threw for 4,456 yards with a 44/8 TD/INT ratio.
Taylor and OC Walt Bell don’t plan to have a prolific passing offense, as they were just 115th in the nation in pass attempts last season. But, Jones probably gives them a higher-upside arm and Jalen Buckley and Cole Cabana, originally at Michigan, will timeshare in the backfield. I think this offense has the potential to be extremely good after improving by a full yard per play year over year.
Defense
If this side of the ball improves, that will be the key for Western Michigan. They allowed 31.3 PPG and 6.4 yards per play despite a lot of returning starters and production. I really liked the Power hire, but with him gone, O’Leary just might be an upgrade. There isn’t a lot of returning production this season, as only two of the team’s top tacklers are back. But, that’s probably not a bad thing with the overall numbers.
Plus, this was Taylor’s third recruiting cycle, both for incoming freshmen and transfers, so he has to have more of the roster that he wants than the holdovers from Tim Lester. It all depends on how well Taylor did in the portal. While the freshmen class wasn’t great, 247 Sports said WMU had the second-best transfer class.
Outlook
This is my favorite win total in the MAC. I like Over 5.5 Wins and love the plus-money price. The Broncos can absolutely beat their two in-state rivals and get Toledo and Ohio at home. The non-conference is tricky with two Big Ten teams, but I believe they’re live against North Texas and should beat Rhode Island.
Pick: Over 5.5 Wins
