College Football Conference Championship Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Matt Youmans
Here are my Week 15 college football conference championship best bets:
Ohio State (-4.5) vs. Indiana
A Google search of Curt Cignetti is no longer needed. Everyone who follows college football now knows he wins and knows his story. In fact, the Indiana coach is the second-biggest winner in the nation the past two years by compiling a 23-2 record. He took over one of the worst programs in the Big Ten and quickly turned it into one of the best.
Only Ohio State has been better, but that could change Saturday night when the No. 1 Buckeyes and No. 2 Hoosiers meet for the Big Ten championship in Indianapolis. The reigning national champs are short favorites and the number has been shrinking this week while the underdog attracts sharp money.
Ryan Day has coached Ohio State to a 26-2 record the past two years, including a 38-15 victory over Indiana late in the 2024 season. That meeting was in Columbus, Ohio, but this one will take place in Cignetti’s backyard and this will be a different story.
A statistical comparison of the Buckeyes and Hoosiers shows strikingly similar teams. Ohio State owns the nation’s No. 1 scoring defense (7.8 ppg) and Indiana ranks second (10.9 ppg), and each offense is led by a Heisman Trophy contender at quarterback.
I’ll vote for the Hoosiers’ Fernando Mendoza as the slightly superior quarterback. Not only has Mendoza completed 72% of his passes for 32 touchdowns with five interceptions, he has rushed for 243 yards and six touchdowns. Buckeyes freshman Julian Sayin, who has 79% completions with 30 touchdowns and five interceptions, does not run much at all. Mendoza also has more experience, starting for two seasons at California before transferring to Indiana.
Of course, Ohio State’s defense is historically elite — the first defense to hold its first 12 opponents under 17 points since Florida in 1975. But the Buckeyes have coasted through the season without facing a great opposing quarterback or a strong offense. Mendoza is a top NFL prospect and the Hoosiers have scored 27 or more points in 11 of 12 games.
A week ago, Ohio State’s defense dominated Michigan freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, who went 8-for-18 for 63 yards with an interception. Underwood is in the early stages of his development and often looks incompetent as a passer. The Buckeyes 27-9 win over Wolverines was not a surprise, but it was the game they had pointed to all season and stopping a four-game losing streak in that rivalry was monumental.
It’s reasonable to expect the Big Ten title game will be somewhat of an emotional letdown for the Buckeyes, who were focused on beating Michigan and repeating as national champions as their top two goals. Meanwhile, this game means everything to Cignetti and the Hoosiers.
Ohio State has the championship pedigree and the big-name stars — Sayin, receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, running back Bo Jackson, defensive end Caden Curry, linebacker Sonny Styles and safety Caleb Downs. But don’t be fooled, Indiana has players too, and the underdog will be hungry and playing to prove something.
Cignetti, who was on Nick Saban’s first coaching staff at Alabama in 2007, last year proclaimed Indiana is an “emerging superpower” in college football. He’s cocky and backs up the talk. My first bet this week was Hoosiers +6 and I’m also playing the moneyline. The Buckeyes should be on upset alert.
Best Bet: Indiana +4.5
Georgia (-2.5) vs. Alabama
Ty Simpson picked apart the Georgia defense and passed for 276 yards and two touchdowns when the Crimson Tide rolled into Athens and won 24-21 on Sept. 27. It should be noted that Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart made adjustments and his defense held Alabama scoreless in the second half. Smart’s defense has continued to improve, allowing an average of 7.3 points in the past three games heading into this SEC title game in Atlanta. Smart is 1-7 against the Tide and needs revenge.
Alabama was outgained 411-280 in its 27-20 win last week at Auburn, which finished 1-7 in SEC play. Simpson passed for only 122 yards and Jam Miller, who rushed for 83 yards, left the game with a leg injury and is questionable to play Saturday. The Tide offense has problems, and star defensive lineman LT Overton is out with an injury. Georgia’s offense has not been great, but quarterback Gunner Stockton and running back Nate Frazier should be good enough to help Smart get payback. I’m laying the points and playing the Bulldogs at -135 on the moneyline.
Best Bet: Georgia -2.5
Last week: 3-2 against the spread
Season: 40-32-5
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