College Football Playoff First Round and Early Bowl Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Matt Youmans
Here are my best bets for the first round of the College Football Playoff and early bowl games:
Alabama at Oklahoma (-1.5)
CFP first round
In last year’s playoffs, the home teams — Ohio State, Notre Dame, Penn State and Texas — swept the first-round games with a winning margin of 19.3 points. It should be a different story this time around due to two games with tight lines, including Friday’s matchup in Norman, Oklahoma, where the blowout trend likely comes to an end.
The Sooners are 6-1 at home this season, but they were far from impressive in November while beating Missouri (17-6) and LSU (17-13). Oklahoma’s offensive line is a weakness that has exposed its inability to run the ball effectively while putting more pressure on quarterback John Mateer. In the Sooners’ 23-21 win at Alabama on Nov. 15, Mateer passed for 138 yards and the running attack produced only 74 yards on 28 carries. Something will need to change in the rematch, and that probably means Mateer must run a lot more. Tate Sandell, arguably the nation’s top kicker, could be the edge Oklahoma needs.
The Crimson Tide outgained the Sooners 406-212 in the first meeting thanks to Ty Simpson passing for 326 yards, but Simpson was the victim of an 87-yard pick-six. It is expected to be a windy night, so the offense that can grind out more yards on the ground will have a distinct advantage, and Alabama hopes the return of running back Jam Miller makes the difference. Miller was out with an injury in the SEC title game and he was sorely missed as the Tide took a 28-7 gut punch from Georgia.
It’s difficult to be overly enthusiastic about Alabama considering its decline since late October. The Tide’s most impressive four-week stretch came in the middle of the season when beating Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee. It’s also tough to bank on Oklahoma’s sputtering offense. I usually prefer to play the revenge angle in a rematch when the favorite dropped the first game, so I’ll roll with the Tide as a short underdog in a tight one.
Best Bet: Alabama +1.5
Miami (FL) at Texas A&M (-3)
CFP first round
In my opinion, the 12-team playoff bracket has six teams with no chance to win it all. Those teams are James Madison, Tulane, Mississippi, Alabama, Oklahoma and Texas A&M. I’m putting Miami in the group of six teams that have a real title shot. Still, the Hurricanes rank sixth on that list behind Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia, Texas Tech and Oregon. (I recently bet the Ducks +800 and also played the Hoosiers at 10-1 during the season, but my Notre Dame 16-1 ticket is obviously dead.) While I’m not a believer in Miami coach Mario Cristobal and quarterback Carson Beck, the Hurricanes do have the defense and overall talent required to make a playoff run.
Miami’s speed on defense should curtail the running ability of Aggies quarterback Marcel Reed, who’s not a great passer and was intercepted twice in a loss at Texas in the regular-season finale. Beck must step up with a big-time performance, and his recent form has been encouraging. In the Hurricanes’ last three games, Beck averaged 292.7 passing yards with 10 touchdowns and one interception. The early kickoff time Saturday in College Station is not ideal for Texas A&M, which would seemingly be tougher to beat in a night game. BetMGM, DraftKings and a few other books are offering 3.5, and I’ll take the points.
Best Bet: Miami +3.5
California (-1) at Hawaii
Hawaii Bowl
As for the non-playoff bowl matchups, this one on Christmas Eve in Honolulu is about as good as it gets. Cal interim coach Nick Rolovich and Hawaii coach Timmy Chang are former teammates who were once prolific passers in Hawaii’s run-and-shoot offense. Chang and Rolovich will not be conservative play-callers in this game and both will open the playbook to allow their freshman quarterbacks to put on a show.
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele passed for 330 yards and four touchdowns in the Golden Bears’ 38-35 victory over SMU in the regular-season finale. Micah Alejado led the Rainbow Warriors to a 6-1 home record while scoring an average of 30.4 points. Alejado will be without leading receiver Jackson Harris, who hit the transfer portal, but there is plenty of depth at the receiver position. I bet Hawaii +3 and that number is long gone, so look at the total, which has dipped a few points after peaking at 55.5. I disagree with the move and expect an entertaining and high-scoring game.
Best Bet: California-Hawaii Over 52.5
Last week: 2-0 against the spread
Season: 42-32-5
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