Week 10 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Matt Youmans
Here are my Week 10 college football best bets:
USC (-5) at Nebraska
Two days after signing a contract extension with Nebraska that puts him among the highest-paid coaches in college football, Matt Rhule will jog onto the field to a roaring crowd. He will get a hero’s welcome, although his Cornhuskers will be home underdogs to an opponent barely ranked inside the Top 25.
What’s wrong with that picture? Rhule really has not accomplished that much in his three years at Nebraska. He’s got an 18-15 record and his unranked team is 6-2 this season. A win in the Pinstripe Bowl last year is his highlight. Still, the Cornhuskers could not afford to lose him and start over with a new coaching staff, so he’s getting a contract fit for a king.
Rhule was considered the frontrunner for the position at Penn State, one of many high-profile openings this fall, so the job market dictated what Nebraska had to do. It’s a good time to be a mediocre or fired football coach because the money never has been better.
Losing big games has been the Rhule, not the exception. In his career, Rhule is 2-22 against AP-ranked teams, including 0-11 versus Top 10 opponents. Rhule has not defeated a ranked team since 2016 when he coached at Temple.
Why is all of that relevant? Nebraska hosts 23rd-ranked USC on Saturday. Lincoln Riley, who received a 10-year, $110 million contract in 2022, is often criticized for his failures on the road. As the Trojans coach, when his team travels two time zones or more, Riley is 1-7 straight up and ATS.
Rhule’s new deal will energize the fans and his players, who now know their coach doesn’t have one foot out the door. That’s one reason Nebraska attracted money in the betting market Thursday, when the line dropped from USC -6.5 to as low as -4.5 at some books.
The Cornhuskers have won three of their past four games, but the loss was an ugly one, 24-6 at Minnesota on Oct. 17. Rhule’s quarterback, Dylan Raiola, is a Patrick Mahomes lookalike in all ways aside from his performances in big games. Raiola has been good enough, completing 72.8% of his passes with 17 touchdowns and six interceptions. The offense has benefited from the emergence of workhorse running back Emmett Johnson.
USC has the better quarterback in Jayden Maiava and its offense ranks fifth nationally in scoring at 42.4 ppg, but the Trojans were too soft on the defensive side while allowing 34 points in each of their losses at Illinois and Notre Dame.
I bet Nebraska +7 early in the week and will stick with that side even at a worse number. USC has the superior team and is favored for a reason, but Riley’s road record has been a troubling trend for a long time. Expect the Cornhuskers’ best effort in this spot.
Best Bet: Nebraska +5
Penn State at Ohio State (-20)
Over the summer and into early September, this Big Ten heavyweight matchup had the potential to be No.1 versus No. 2. While the top-ranked Buckeyes have done their part, the Nittany Lions have lost four in a row, with the third loss resulting in the firing of coach James Franklin and a season-ending injury to quarterback Drew Allar. Penn State is not going to do much scoring with the inexperienced and minimally talented Ethan Grunkemeyer replacing Allar. Senior running back Kaytron Allen will need to be the engine for the offense and the going will be tough against an Ohio State defense allowing 5.9 ppg. The Lions, who are off a bye, have lost each time by six points or fewer and twice by exactly one point. Maybe the Buckeyes roll in another blowout, but instead of the line going past 21, it’s moving the other way, so take a shot with the ‘dog.
Best Bet: Penn State +20
Florida vs. Georgia (-7.5)
The firing of coach Billy Napier prior to the bye week should be a boost to a Florida team that is plenty talented yet underachieved in large part because of coaching incompetence. Interim coach Billy Gonzales has made some changes that can help quarterback DJ Lagway, who has thrown nine interceptions. Lagway is not facing a fierce Georgia defense. Kirby Smart’s defense ranks 130th in sack percentage (getting down quarterbacks on only 2.4% of pass attempts) and has been weak against the pass. The Bulldogs caught lucky breaks in close victories over Tennessee, Auburn and Mississippi. The Gators have what it takes to hang in and threaten to win this rivalry game in Jacksonville.
Best Bet: Florida +7.5
Hawaii at San Jose State (-2)
Timmy Chang’s team has turned into road Warriors for a change, winning at Air Force and Colorado State to reach 6-2 and bowl eligibility. The bye did not come at an ideal time for a hot team, so that’s a concern. Instead of picking a side, I’ll look at the total. In its past three wins, Hawaii averaged 39.7 points while Micah Alejado averaged 390 passing yards. The Spartans are 2-5 and desperately need this win to keep their bowl dreams alive. Senior quarterback Walker Eget runs the up-tempo “Spread and Shred” offense that will stretch the Hawaii defense. In the past four games, San Jose averaged 29.3 points while Eget averaged 358.8 passing yards. It will be surprising if this game is not high scoring and highly entertaining.
Best Bet: Hawaii-San Jose State Over 56
Last week: 2-3-1 against the spread
Season: 25-23-5
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